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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: December Hoops
nropp11
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#1
Posted: 12/1/2010 12:39:46 PM
December: Finally, more conference games. Risk will probably double this month with more conference action (not necessarily a good thing).

11/30 Results: Northwestern looked really good. Western Carolina started out way too slow. Ohio State continues to impress. Nevada continues to not impress as their offense has taken a nose DIVE. Mississippi State drops a home game to Florida Atlantic. The Georgetown/Missouri game was fantastic. Should have played New Mexico State. Illinois looked pretty good. All I wanted was one win this week. Will be curious to see the posted # with the trip to Zaga later on. Said it before, this team is deeeeeeeeeeeeeep. First three off the bench would start on 95% of teams in America. And Washington put up 100+ as expected. St. Louis has me sold. Portland only attempted four three pointers. HAHA. STL has now only allowed 53 three’s to be shot on them in six games! It truly is absurd.

Sides: 17-4, +16.30
Totals: 5-3, +0.60
DNP: 12-9


12/1 Notes: George Washington looks to bounce back after a loss at home to UNC Wilmington when it travels to George Mason, who has slight revenge on GW as GW beat em to a pulp last year despite having less three-pointers and far less free throws. George Mason couldn’t make anything last year as GW’s press forced them into really bad shot selection as a young squad. The score doesn’t look as bad when you take into account that George Mason was without two starters who violated team rules prior to last year’s matchup. Providence beat Northeastern on the road last year as a two point pup. Fordham catching quite a few at Harvard and will not even look at it b/c Fordham is another one of those programs that as a mess and Harvard is a IVY school. No thoughts on Temple but they should rebound here. The Xavier/Miami OH rivalry has been a close game each of the last four years. Richmond and Old Dominion should be a dogfight and one that I’m looking forward to, but not from a better perspective. Both teams have excellent squads, both teams are returning after quality victories at a tournament, and both teams should be in the hunt come March. Charlotte and East Carolina play their second game against each other inside of two weeks. Charlotte was the victor in the previous meeting by 11 points on a neutral court with East Carolina shooting an abysmal 35%. Both teams were playing on a back-to-back that game and stayed well below the listed total of 146. Could be a different story at home for East Carolina. Still though, neither team has beaten anyone impressive or worth mentioning, except for the winner of this previous game (Charlotte). Detroit has been pretty impressive this year, but Akron has had a full week of prep time. Florida visits UCF, who is 5-0 despite having one of the worst strength of schedule’s available. The Big Ten/ACC challenge resumes with Indiana travelling to Boston College. Not a real big fan of checking out Indiana until I can see more of their type of play. Both Purdue and Virginia Tech coming off a loss a piece here should make for an intense matchup in that game...
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#2
Posted: 12/1/2010 12:40:19 PM
BOL this month nropp!!!
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nropp11
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#3
Posted: 12/1/2010 12:44:20 PM
Finally, a conference game is available. Butler is not the Butler of old, and while Loyola CHI is 7-0, they have played a #312 strength of schedule in comparison to Butler’s #42. This is my #1 Horizon versus my #7 Horizon. Last year around this time, Butler came on the road here as a 12 point favorite and won the game by one point while shooting 35% from the field, shooting 12% from the three point line, and only getting to the foul line 10 times. I still believe Butler is the class of the Horizon, even though it is closer than in past years. Loyola CHI really has no home court edge, and while they may have more fans here b/c it’s Butler, the place will still be close to empty. Coming off a loss, Butler has been downright dirty the last couple years and Stephens will have his boys ready to play. Iowa State’s defense is SUPERB and their offense has been gelling on all cylinders early in the year too. Considering that Iowa State played Creighton to a game that ended up totaling 179 with both teams shooting 50% from the field and three-point line, I might get some value in playing an under that is possibly listed to high. Illinois State really hasn’t had a team like UNLV come into town for an out of conference game in years so not sure how they’re going to respond here. New Mexico travelling to Southern Illinois should be a good matchup. SIU is a very good home team as the line dictates, but their defense is not as good as in past years and SIU may have trouble scoring with New Mexico, even at home. Louisiana Tech struggled with C-USA Houston earlier in the year but I value Houston a slightly better ballclub in the C-USA than I do SMU. Western Kentucky has beaten no one worth mentioning as it seems that they have fallen off the map talent wise, while Vanderbilt is scoring at will on folks. Vanderbilt has revenge here from a return meeting last year when WKU rarely lost at home and they actually shut down Ogilvy that game. This is also the start of a three-game road trip for WKU. Both Maryland and Penn State have won the games their supposed to and lost the games that they were supposed to lose.  Penn State should be just as good as last year with Battle coming back but they won’t compete in the Big Ten. Maryland has shown the ability to not score at times, which is evident of losing some key pieces last season and their strength this year is something that they have not had in past years and that is size and strength down low. Penn State really doesn’t have any stardom down low, so advantage in the paint goes to Maryland here. Not betting on or against Duke all year probably but Tom Izzo catching 11.5 don’t happen all too often. UC Irvine has much better guards than San Diego and this was going to be an auto-bet until I noticed Eric Wise has not been playing. They still have plenty of talent without him in the lineup and they have been playing four or five guards at a time. San Diego, on the other hand is in for a rough year. They have some size down low but they fail to utilize it as their bigs have been awful this year. The coaching philosophy at San Diego is guard based and they just don’t have the talent or scoring having their four top scorers depart after last year, including all-time leading everything Brandon Johnson. In each of their five losses, they have gone at least 8 minutes without scoring and the reason for that is exactly what I stated above. UC Irvine runs and pressures and plays a lot of players, and I expect it to wear San Diego down rather early. I was able to see UC Irvine play earlier this year at Illniois and what I took from that game was that the entire offense runs through Eric Wise. He scores, he distributes, and he leads the defense. He has been out for 3-4 games with a groin injury and isn’t expected back until this weekend. It would be a HUGE lift if somehow he made it back tonight but I can’t see anything. UC Irvine’s up-tempo style of play and better guard play should win out regardless here. Best player on the court is Darren Moore, for UC Irvine. You can check out his tattoo here: http://bit.ly/ikkWiz. You think San Diego State remembers last year’s 22 point loss to St. Mary’s? Finally, the Southern Conference starts up as we have Elon travelling to Furman. Elon hasn’t kept a division 1 opponent below 15 points but they did play a tough schedule. This is my #9 SOCON at my #6 SOCON. Elon lost their most efficient scorer, and while they have been shooting the 3-ball a ton, that is probably more a product of playing upper echelon competition and being forced to come from behind in those games. Furman has a quality backcourt but they will lack size to compete in the SOCON which is why I have them at #6. The size advantage really shouldn’t be a weakness against an Elon squad here as Elon doesn’t really have size either. 

Two road favorites, not typically my style. Still have to look at totals...

Bets
Butler -3.5 (1 Unit)
UC Irvine -1 (1 Unit)

DNP: San Diego State -6

GL
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#4
Posted: 12/1/2010 12:45:38 PM
guess you heard butlers starting point guard is out...
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#5
Posted: 12/1/2010 12:48:30 PM

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#6
Posted: 12/1/2010 12:50:25 PM

!!!
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#7
Posted: 12/1/2010 12:52:40 PM
Good luck nropp. 
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nropp11
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#8
Posted: 12/1/2010 12:56:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by michaelpaul1:

guess you heard butlers starting point guard is out...

Fully aware. More a play on defense. Loyola CHI has yet to play against a defense ranked in the top 150 of all college basketball. They've played #288, #155, #286, #247, #196, #283, and #234.

Butler comes in at #32. Loyola's scores against top 50 defenses last year came in at 54, 52, 47 (Butler), 47 again (Butler), 48, and 56.
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#9
Posted: 12/1/2010 1:01:07 PM
BOL
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#10
Posted: 12/1/2010 1:06:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nropp11:


Fully aware. More a play on defense. Loyola CHI has yet to play against a defense ranked in the top 150 of all college basketball. They've played #288, #155, #286, #247, #196, #283, and #234.

Butler comes in at #32. Loyola's scores against top 50 defenses last year came in at 54, 52, 47 (Butler), 47 again (Butler), 48, and 56.


great angle and research there man.  Love that kind of analysis.
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#11
Posted: 12/1/2010 1:09:26 PM
I do think after going 1 win out of the last seven the will come out firing against a Butler team that just lost to evansville and is not the Butler of years past...points may cover...
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#12
Posted: 12/1/2010 1:11:39 PM
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#13
Posted: 12/1/2010 2:10:14 PM
Excellent month last month, thanks for the help
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#14
Posted: 12/1/2010 2:11:38 PM
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#15
Posted: 12/1/2010 2:29:16 PM
 nropp11
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nropp11
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#16
Posted: 12/1/2010 3:19:25 PM
12/1 Cont'd: …Charlotte and East Carolina are playing for the second time in a two week period, with Charlotte winning the first contest 74-63 on a neutral court. In that game, we saw a total of 121 shots attempted, 41 three pointers attempted, and 38 free throws. Neither team shot all that well, in fact, they both shot awful. This game was also lined at 154 last year to the day, and it stayed under hitting 148 (that game saw 110 shots, 43 threes, and 64 free throws). With two similar squads, and a lack of foul shots attempted in the first meeting this year, I look for both squads to get to the bucket more, and get to the foul line a little bit more, thus increasing the chances of hitting to the over. In addition to the first meeting hitting only 137, both teams were playing on back-to-back dates with another game the following day. Tonight, we’ll see the best offense on the court for a majority of the 40 minutes. These two teams also put up 72 points in the 1H of that meeting and that was with a long scoring drought from East Carolina as they fell behind 12-3 from the start. Aside from the previous meeting and history in the series, from a coaching perspective, both coaches like to get out and go. Charlotte coach Alan Major, who was a former assistant at Ohio State I believe, has bought into the idea of this team continuing to get up and down at a fast pace with a majority of their roster returning. On the flip side, East Carolina brought in Jeff Lebo, who used to coach at Auburn. He’s known for spreading the court, basically either attempting a three-pointer or shooting a layup, nothing in between. The good news is that they return three players who attempted more than 100 three-balls last year. On their home court, we should see a better display than 3 for 23 as they shot in the first meeting. The only down side is that one of Charlotte’s best players and post-scorers in Spears has been suspended indefinitely, not sure if he’s playing. Guess that just means more three-point attempts for the guards and a quicker pace. Towson plays zone and Western Michigan can’t shoot worth a lick, so I leaned under there but the pace that Towson is playing at under Pat Kennedy kept me off. Looked at VCU and USF for a little while. VCU is playing a much faster pace than in previous years, and USF is playing it’s same old snail pace. VCU has only played one team comparable to the pace of USF and that game was Winthrop, but USF’s defense isn’t as good as Winthrop so I’m not expecting this game to hit 121. I alluded to Pitt playing a faster tempo a few times in the November thread and they have been thus far, they just have not been effective. Duquesne likes to run at every opportunity and this # might be a bit higher than for my liking, but it’s worth a shot. These two teams played in an ugly game last year that saw two overtimes and a final of 67-58. Pitt was pretty young last year and Duquesne was going through some issues with it’s own program and I’d relate this game and scenario to more like the 2008 meeting in which the total hit 129. Still a ton of shots, but Duquesne couldn’t hit anything. Both of these teams want to run, and the last four totals in this series have been listed 136, 152, 157, and 142.5. All four have gone under, as they should have. The circumstances should be different tonight. Both teams can fill it up and the opportunities to score should be there early and often. Hate playing totals over in rivalry games, but this one has a nice chance of cashing if the shooting angles are ok (I have never heard of the CONSOL Energy Center).

Bets
Butler -3.5 (1 Unit)
UC Irvine -1 (1 Unit)
Charlotte/East Carolina Over 144 (1 Unit)

DNP: San Diego State -6, Duquesne/Pittsburgh Over 149

GL
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#17
Posted: 12/1/2010 3:56:16 PM
Good Luck tonight 
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#18
Posted: 12/1/2010 3:57:56 PM
nropp11 as usual outstanding write - ups bro   heres to an awesome december & thanks
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#19
Posted: 12/1/2010 4:00:43 PM
Thanks Nropp
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Posted: 12/1/2010 4:07:15 PM
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#21
Posted: 12/1/2010 4:07:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nropp11:

December: Finally, more conference games. Risk will probably double this month with more conference action (not necessarily a good thing).

11/30 Results: Northwestern looked really good. Western Carolina started out way too slow. Ohio State continues to impress. Nevada continues to not impress as their offense has taken a nose DIVE. Mississippi State drops a home game to Florida Atlantic. The Georgetown/Missouri game was fantastic. Should have played New Mexico State. Illinois looked pretty good. All I wanted was one win this week. Will be curious to see the posted # with the trip to Zaga later on. Said it before, this team is deeeeeeeeeeeeeep. First three off the bench would start on 95% of teams in America. And Washington put up 100+ as expected. St. Louis has me sold. Portland only attempted four three pointers. HAHA. STL has now only allowed 53 three’s to be shot on them in six games! It truly is absurd.

Sides: 17-4, +16.30
Totals: 5-3, +0.60
DNP: 12-9


12/1 Notes: George Washington looks to bounce back after a loss at home to UNC Wilmington when it travels to George Mason, who has slight revenge on GW as GW beat em to a pulp last year despite having less three-pointers and far less free throws. George Mason couldn’t make anything last year as GW’s press forced them into really bad shot selection as a young squad. The score doesn’t look as bad when you take into account that George Mason was without two starters who violated team rules prior to last year’s matchup. Providence beat Northeastern on the road last year as a two point pup. Fordham catching quite a few at Harvard and will not even look at it b/c Fordham is another one of those programs that as a mess and Harvard is a IVY school. No thoughts on Temple but they should rebound here. The Xavier/Miami OH rivalry has been a close game each of the last four years. Richmond and Old Dominion should be a dogfight and one that I’m looking forward to, but not from a better perspective. Both teams have excellent squads, both teams are returning after quality victories at a tournament, and both teams should be in the hunt come March. Charlotte and East Carolina play their second game against each other inside of two weeks. Charlotte was the victor in the previous meeting by 11 points on a neutral court with East Carolina shooting an abysmal 35%. Both teams were playing on a back-to-back that game and stayed well below the listed total of 146. Could be a different story at home for East Carolina. Still though, neither team has beaten anyone impressive or worth mentioning, except for the winner of this previous game (Charlotte). Detroit has been pretty impressive this year, but Akron has had a full week of prep time. Florida visits UCF, who is 5-0 despite having one of the worst strength of schedule’s available. The Big Ten/ACC challenge resumes with Indiana travelling to Boston College. Not a real big fan of checking out Indiana until I can see more of their type of play. Both Purdue and Virginia Tech coming off a loss a piece here should make for an intense matchup in that game...

If you're a fan of Illinois and you're happy with only one win this week out of 2 games, shame on you. They SHOULD beat that UNC team 7-8 times out of ten, and they will likely be favored againts Gonzaga as well.  I think instead of being happy with 1 win, you should EXPECT at least one win, and be happy if they win them both. Statistically, I imagine they win at least 1 game 90% of the time.  Love your stuff, but don't understand your thoughts on the Illini.  You should expect more out of that team this year.

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#22
Posted: 12/1/2010 4:15:19 PM

Keep rollin N 

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#23
Posted: 12/1/2010 4:17:12 PM
Nropp,

In your comment below you mentioned should hit 121. The O/U is 139 right now. What do you suggest?

Looked at VCU and USF for a little while. VCU is playing a much faster pace than in previous years, and USF is playing it’s same old snail pace. VCU has only played one team comparable to the pace of USF and that game was Winthrop, but USF’s defense isn’t as good as Winthrop so I’m not expecting this game to hit 121.
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#24
Posted: 12/1/2010 4:20:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by luisc98:

Nropp,

In your comment below you mentioned should hit 121. The O/U is 139 right now. What do you suggest?

Looked at VCU and USF for a little while. VCU is playing a much faster pace than in previous years, and USF is playing it’s same old snail pace. VCU has only played one team comparable to the pace of USF and that game was Winthrop, but USF’s defense isn’t as good as Winthrop so I’m not expecting this game to hit 121.

Meant to say that if VCU/USF stays under 139, it should clearly go over the 121 that Winthrop/VCU hit b/c Winthrop defense is much better than USF.

i used the 121 as a comparison for Winthrop to USF.
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#25
Posted: 12/1/2010 4:26:25 PM

Consol is the new Pengiuns building.  I assume this will be the first basketball game played in it.  The Dukes don't push the tempo like they used to, but will certainly run if given the chance.  It's an odd rivalry, because, well, Pitt always wins, and virtually none of the Pitt players are from Pittsburgh (or anywhere near Pittsburgh).  It's really a game for Duquesne to feel relevent once each winter. Pitt generally sleepwalks through it.  I'd lean under.

As for Loyola being "close to empty" tonight, it won't be.  These two drew about 4,500 to the 5,200 seat Gentile Center last year, and this is probably Loyola's biggest home game in 40 years.  I imagine it will be pretty festive in there.

Thanks, as always.

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