Friday Play Alerts

YTD: 1-1, even

Hey Guys,
I just wanted to start off this post by saying how appreciative I am that people are interested in my picks and analysis of the games and I certainly don't that lightly.  I have won consistently over the years, but that doesn't guarantee that I will win this year.  What I can guarantee is that I am going to spend copious amounts of time on each matchup and I never make a bet that is not back by tons of stats, angles, and info that I feel gives us an advantage.  If I bet it, I feel confident enough to put all my friends and family members on it too.  Because I do get asked this quite a bit, here is exactly how I am studying the games early in the season:

1. Bluebook (I have access to it through espn insider)

2. Kenpom.com (there are tons of things to learn about the site - read up and do your homework for sure with this one)

3. Cbssports.com - click cbb - click teams- then choose a team (for example Butler) and then click complete Butler preview - and you will have probable starting lineups, scouting reports for the new players and starters, and notable injuries, suspensions, or quotes and a few other valuable nuggets

4. Google news tabs - so if you are studying, for example the louisiana tech texas basketball game - you would type in louisiana tech texas in the google home page - then click news - you will have an updated list of articles from major sports websites and local newspapers about the games, matchups and teams (sometimes you will have to click "other articles" under the first link hit on the page to ready find some "hidden" gems in some very some newspapers (also I would be remiss if I didn't say that most of the information on bleacher report is pure crap and I wouldn't waste my time and the same goes for any betting websites claiming to have a solid writeup of the matchups)

I'm breaking down the games right now (just spent an hour on Towson/Miami OH and its a no-play errrrr) so I will just add to thread as the day goes by and I finish my study.  Good luck today and this season

GL today bud! Keep up the great work, you're a great asset to the forums 

BOL today and this year KP.  Your write ups are always in depth and come from good angles.  Appreciate your hard work, and look forward to your posts.

Looking forward to your pick. Love your write-ups!

Look forward to your plays

What is Bluebook? I have ESPN Insider, never heard of it?

Blue Ribbon college basketball preview.  It is the holy grail for college bball handicappers.

First Play: NMSU -1 @ Louisiana Lafayette

* NMSU got to play in Canada together during the offseason - they had 10 practices and 6 games - the importance of this cannot be overstated.  This is one of my favorite angles each season is to look for teams with this advantage.

* Both teams lost their top two scores - but NMSU has much more experienced players to fill-in and the strength of this team will be in the post, and despite the fact that Wendell McKines is hurt - they should be able to dominate ULL in the post tonight.  The five starters for NMSU will have played together going on three years now and they also had the Canada trip to gel together

* ULL has a new head coach, and while I love the hire, it should take time for Marlin's schemes and systems to take hold.  ULL is very good at home, but I expect the experience and inside play to be too much for ULL to deal with at home in tonight's home opener.

* Kenpom has ULL at 277 and NMSU at 170 - of course this is preseason/last season rankings taken into account, and kenpom projects NMSU to win by 4 (if you care about those types of things) 

Please realize that NMSU has been a very unpredictable team of the last few years, and any result tonight wouldn't surprise me.  But we have the advantage of experience, offseason/preseason work, and the more solid inside game by taking NMSU.  Good luck with whatever you decide.  I'll continue to post plays if I make them.

 

As always very insightful ... Good luck with the pick bud .. I am on it with you...

Go to espn - click college basketball - click teams - then choose a team, about half way down the page on the left-hand side you will see the blueribbon team preveiw for that team - couple this with cbssports info, etc. and your definitely ahead of the game.

Keep up the good work my friend

Like the Aggies tonight as well. Good luck.

Second Play: Pacific +9 @ UTEP

I've got lots to say about this one, but I will try to be brief

* UTEP lost their two best big men (possible the two best big men in C-USA) and the strength of the Pacific offense will be center Sam Willard who can score, rebound, shoot for high percentage from the floor and free-throw line and will command a double team in the post and will get the Pacific guards some very open looks from 3
* Speaking of the Pacific guards, coach Bob Thomason (never one to exaggerate) says that this team has the potential to be one of the best shooting teams he has ever had.
* Last season Pacific WON 12 road games, including 6 of their last 7 and they return a bulk of that team this season.
* Pacific plays super solid defense and tries to limit turnovers and get good shots with a slow tempo offense - this makes the 9 points we are getting that much bigger
* I think Tim Floyd sucks, but that is subjective and I am attempting to lay out objective analysis, but he is putting in new defensive and offensive systems and has already stated that they won't be running nearly as much as last year and that they are going to try to make a complete shift in mentality and focus on the defensive end - THIS WILL CERTAINLY TAKE TIME.  Also, Floyd says that he will have 20-30 set plays on offense by January, but as of last practice, they have only one set play in - the rest will be a motion offense.  Culpepper is going to have to have a great game for UTEP to win (in my opinion) but their holes in the middle/post position make me think this will be a game that comes right down to the very end. 

By having Pacific in this game, we have a more experienced team, a better defensive team, a more disciplined team, and a team that has been running the same offensive and defensive schemes for years.  Keep in mind that this will be a sellout tonight (first time in forever in El Paso) and there are tons of excitement surrounding the program - but I think 9 is WAY to many points to expect this team to cover tonight.  Here's to Tim Floyd being Tim Floyd and having an overrated team to start the season.

BOL tonight Kine

All be back in a while to post a few more plays if I find any

on nmst, will look at PAcific, thanks for sharing

Take a look at the Central Michigan game.  Central Mich comes back with talent and facing a cs fullerton that lost a lot last season.

I like Pacific as well. Good luck. 

Love nmsu GL