NIT Total Alert

Regular Season: YTD 48-29 1-0 (3-unit plays) +22 units
(Doubled my bankroll!)
System Plays: 37-10 (from Feb 13th to March 7th)

Conference Tourney: 4-10 - 6.5 units

Post-season: 1-1 0 units

Hey Guys,
Easy hit with Tech, but should have faded both Conference USA teams as I knew both Marshall and UAB couldn't cover DD spreads, just picked the wrong one - errrrr. 

Let me first say that there is A TON of articles and information on the internet about all of these post-season college game and you really should be doing your homework.  There is no excuse in not reading what is almost an endless amount of information available for these games. 

It's super late and I have a ton to do tomorrow so I might not be around as much as usual, I have already locked this play in: UNDER 123.5 Oregon St vs Boston U

Here's the cliff's note version of why I bet this game:
1. Boston U had to travel ALL DAY cross-country for this game and had one real practice to prepare for Oregon St.
2. This one practice is important as they have not seen ANYTHING like Oregon St's extended 1-3-1 half court trapping defense
3. Boston has a ton of seniors (9) and they have never tasted post-season - in my experience this leads to "tight, tight, tight" play
4. Boston's is a guard heavy team that relies on outside shooting and employs a dribble penetrate and kick offense.  5 of their top 6 scores are guards and 4 of those 5 guards are 6'3 or under - while the wing players of Oregon St are GIANTS.
5. Oregon St has had three days to prepare for Boston and have had no travel at all.  Oregon St has one of the top 3-point defenses in the country (and they shoot 3's at one of the worst percentages as well) and Boston jacks up over 23 3-pointers a game!!!!!!!!!!
6. Oregon St is FIRED UP to defend their CBI title (sad but true) and I expect them to be uber-motivated to continue their season. 
7. Oregon St is 214th in the country in Offensive Efficiency and plays one of the slowest tempos in the country.  They are also a below-average free-throw shooting team as well.
8. Oregon St is playing slower than ever as they held the 10th fast team in the country Washington to a 55 possession game in their last game out.  I have seen Oregon St play more than I care to admit and when a team hasn't faced them or hasn't had time to prepare for them, they literally take forever to get shots off.  There will be numerous shot clock violations, forced 3's, and turnovers as Boston tries to figure this team out.

I have half a mind to bet Oregon St as well as I feel they matchup awesome in this game, but I would never lay 8ish points to a team that is this bad on offense and shoots free-throws this poorly. 

This is also one of those games that I wish I would let myself bet bigger, but I am going to stay disciplined and keep my flat 1-unit betting approach.  Although it wouldn't surprise me if either team in this matchup had less than 20 points at halftime (contrastly I wouldn't be completely shocked if Boston shoots the lights out and this game flys over too - such is gambling)

There are so many angles I love about this game staying under, it almost like a perfect storm which actually has me worried a bit!  I can only see one or two ways this game goes over while I can count half a dozen or more ways it stays under.  I think this game stays under this number 8 out of 10 times they play it and I am feel like if we bet this types of games we will come out on top more often then not.  Good luck with whatever you choose

1-unit on UNDER 123.5 on Matchbook

Like the play Kine.  It's close enough to that 120 number that I like to see when playing unders.  Like you said though, we might be in for a long night if B U goes off.  BOL and thanks for all your time and effort.

gl KP

GL

Love your approach,,,When I look at your record of 48-29-1 on 3 unit plays followed by the comment "I doubled my bankroll" it makes me think a little. The object is to make money and you did. Great job and continued success and thanks for the wake-up call back to what is important, quality over quantity...

BoL KP ... 

I was just looking at this play, glad to see your thread about it!!! 

Thanks for the write-up, Kine. BOL.

BOL TODAY KP

GL today bro! Sent you a PM

Forgot to add what do you think about Wichita and their under? Was leaning both but not 100% on playing it.

Thank brother, you say jump and I say "How high"

Forgot to list my other leans just in case your interested:

Nevada/Wichita St under 144 (was my favorite play of the day, but decided to sleep on it and think about it more, not worried about Nevada scoring here, worried about Nevada giving up and just getting destroyed)
Northern Colorado +1.5 (Cgonzo84 is the boss!)
St John's +7.5 AND under 134 (50/50 on this play but like the under slightly more)

KP Bol! I'm jumping on the under train headed towards OSU with you.  

bol today buddy 

Devon Beitzel is still out for NC??

            (Doubled my bankroll!)        

    I believe he is 48-29 overall and 1-0 on 3 unit plays

Follow your threads

I am just not sure why any team would accidently play tight in the NIT     its an Alfred E Newman special event.

I agree with this assessment.  I doubt Boston would play "tight".  If anything, it's the home teams who have been playing "tight" so far (e.g. Arizona State, USF, Uconn, Seton Hall, etc.)