Here is the best Kenpom thing I found.
Ken Pomeroy is a well-respected college hoops guy who is heavy on the stats. We decided to look at his “Top 5 rated teams” going into the tournament from 2004-2009 (Pomeroy kindly passed along the pre-tourney ratings) to see how they wound up doing in the NCAA tournament. Of the 30 teams (Top 5 from 2004-2009), only four didn’t reach the Sweet 16 (Kentucky and Cincinnati in 2004; Florida in 2005; Kansas in 2006). The last three years have been especially prescient – of his “Top 5 rated” teams, all of them advanced to the Sweet 16 or beyond. Before filling out your bracket tonight, see Pom’s current Top 5 (posted at the bottom).
2004 (Top five in Ken Pom heading into the tournament)
Duke – lost in Final Four.
Connecticut – won title.
Kentucky – lost in 2nd round to UAB.
Cincinnati – lost in 2nd round to Illinois.
Georgia Tech – lost in Final Four
Missing Final Four team: Oklahoma State, which was 7th in Ken Pom.
2005
UNC – won national title.
Illinois – lost in title game.
Duke – Lost in Sweet 16.
Florida – Lost in second round.
Oklahoma St – Lost in Sweet 16.
Missing Final Four teams: Michigan State, which was 10th in Ken Pom, and Louisville, which was 7th.
2006 (the year no No. 1 seed reached the Final Four)
Texas – lost in Elite 8.
Kansas – lost in first round.
Connecticut – lost in Elite 8.
Duke – Lost in Sweet 16.
Villanova – Lost in Elite 8.
Missing Final Four teams: George Mason (23rd in Ken Pom), Florida (8), UCLA (7) and LSU (1oth).
2007
North Carolina – lost in Elite 8.
Kansas – lost in Elite 8
Florida – won title.
Ohio State – lost in title game.
Texas A&M – lost in Sweet 16.
Missing Final Four team: UCLA (8th in Ken Pom) and Georgetown (6th).
2008
Kansas – Won title game.
Memphis – lost in title game.
UCLA – lost in Final Four.
Wisconsin – lost in Sweet 16.
UNC – lost in Final Four.
2009
Memphis – lost in Sweet 16.
UNC – won title.
Connecticut – lost in Final Four.
Louisville – lost in Elite 8.
Gonzaga – lost in Sweet 16
Missing Final Four teams: Michigan State (13th in Ken Pom) Villanova (19th).
2010 Top 5
Duke – Given the draw, Duke seems like a lock to win two games, and is a heavy favorite to get to the Final 4.
Kansas – Almost universally considered to be the best team in the league.
Wisconsin – Last time it beat tourney team was Feb. 2. Tough draw, having to play Temple/Cornell in round two.
Ohio State – Brutal draw, with potential 2nd round game against ACC tourney finalist (GT), then either Big East tourney finalist (Georgetown) or a team that beat KU and UK (Tennessee).
Syracuse – Assuming they survive the first weekend with Arinze Onuaku out, they’ve got a great crack at the Final 4.
Looking beyond his Top 5, you’ll see a couple surprises: BYU is 7th and Maryland is 10th, (ahead of Georgetown, Baylor and Villanova