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#1
YTD 43-27 1-0 (3-unit plays) +19.5 units
Nice easy winner with the Ark/Tenn over last night. This game caught my eye last night but I decided to sit tight as I thought I would get a more favorable line and thankfully I did. I really like San Jose St. +6.5. Here are a few reasons why:
* This play is as much a fade of Idaho as it is a vote of confidence in San Jose St. Since Dec. 7th Idaho is 0-12 against teams inside of Kenpom's top 160. Idaho has been especially poor on offense in their last 3 losses and in 5 of their last 6 games averaging under 65 ppg and shooting under 28% from 3-point land.
* There were fairly high hopes for this season for Idaho who finished over .500 and played in the CIT post-season tourney. This hopes are now dashed as one key injury and a few new faces that transferred or enrolled at Idaho that haven't met expectations. There are rumors of chemistry issues and players that have not/will not accept their roles on this team.
* The biggest problem I see for Idaho is that they have an inability to shut down their opponents top scoring threat on the perimeter. Here is how Idaho has done against the top four scores in the WAC this season:
Jahmar Young (NMSU) Young scores 32 and 23 in two NMSU wins
Luke Babbitt (Nev): Babbitt scores 19 and 21 in two Nevada wins
Adrian Oliver (SJSU) Oliver scores 22 in an SJSU win
It should be also noted that Louisiana Tech's high scoring guard Kyle Gibson missed both games against Idaho. How did Idaho do in those games?
Game 1, Gibson's backcourt mate Brown scores 19 in a LT win.
Game 2, Gibson's replacement Guyton scores 16 in a LT win
Idaho has lost every conference game this season that they have played against top WAC opponents. On top of that, they perimeter defense is so poor that the best scoring guard on the opponents team consistently leads the team in scoring and ultimately to a win.
* SJSU is a much better free throw shooting team and takes care of the ball better than Idaho, if that matters to you.
* If you have read any of my write ups you know that I feel it is a giant advantage to play two teams in a row how play at a similar tempo and style of play. We won with that angle earlier this season with College of Charleston playing Samford and then Citadel back to back. It was also an angle that was used when Col St played BYU, UNLV, and then almost upset New Mexico (all playing similar styles and tempo). Here is what Idaho is having to deal with. They went on the road to NMSU where they played the run and gun fast paced Aggies who mixes zone and man effectively (and lost). There they made the long road trip to Rustin to play Louisiana Tech. Tech was without their top scorer, they took the air out of the ball and played tough, man-to-man defense (also an Idaho loss). Now, they play SJSU at home, who plays a completely different tempo then both of their last two opponents and plays mostly zone defense. This is a big advantage for SJSU and one you would be wise to not overlook.
I could go on, but the bottom line is that on one hand you have SJSU coming off their most impressive win of the season and boasting the leading scorer in the WAC. On the other hand you have Idaho, a team that is 0-12 against Kenpom's top 160 since December. A team that consistently get scorched by the opponents top guard and in their last 6 games has played very poorly on offense and especially from 3-point land (where they will have to be strong tonight against SJSU's zone.
Are their red flags? Sure, SJSU is not a good road team (and that's being polite). Oliver has struggled the last three games and anytime you rely on zone defense almost exclusively, you run the risk that your opponent shoots the lights out on a particular occasion. But as I often say, if they play this game 10 times, I feel like SJSU covers (if not wins) 7 of those times. If I will that way, I am compelled to bet this game. I can see one or two ways Idaho covers this game, but there are a host of ways SJSU does in my humble opinion. Good luck with whatever you decide
* It should be noted that I have a very strong lean towards Pacific tonight against CS Fullerton. I believe I will be betting that game as well, still need to dig a bit deeper though.
1-unit on SJSU +6.5 on Matchbook
Good luck with whatever you decide
Nice easy winner with the Ark/Tenn over last night. This game caught my eye last night but I decided to sit tight as I thought I would get a more favorable line and thankfully I did. I really like San Jose St. +6.5. Here are a few reasons why:
* This play is as much a fade of Idaho as it is a vote of confidence in San Jose St. Since Dec. 7th Idaho is 0-12 against teams inside of Kenpom's top 160. Idaho has been especially poor on offense in their last 3 losses and in 5 of their last 6 games averaging under 65 ppg and shooting under 28% from 3-point land.
* There were fairly high hopes for this season for Idaho who finished over .500 and played in the CIT post-season tourney. This hopes are now dashed as one key injury and a few new faces that transferred or enrolled at Idaho that haven't met expectations. There are rumors of chemistry issues and players that have not/will not accept their roles on this team.
* The biggest problem I see for Idaho is that they have an inability to shut down their opponents top scoring threat on the perimeter. Here is how Idaho has done against the top four scores in the WAC this season:
Jahmar Young (NMSU) Young scores 32 and 23 in two NMSU wins
Luke Babbitt (Nev): Babbitt scores 19 and 21 in two Nevada wins
Adrian Oliver (SJSU) Oliver scores 22 in an SJSU win
It should be also noted that Louisiana Tech's high scoring guard Kyle Gibson missed both games against Idaho. How did Idaho do in those games?
Game 1, Gibson's backcourt mate Brown scores 19 in a LT win.
Game 2, Gibson's replacement Guyton scores 16 in a LT win
Idaho has lost every conference game this season that they have played against top WAC opponents. On top of that, they perimeter defense is so poor that the best scoring guard on the opponents team consistently leads the team in scoring and ultimately to a win.
* SJSU is a much better free throw shooting team and takes care of the ball better than Idaho, if that matters to you.
* If you have read any of my write ups you know that I feel it is a giant advantage to play two teams in a row how play at a similar tempo and style of play. We won with that angle earlier this season with College of Charleston playing Samford and then Citadel back to back. It was also an angle that was used when Col St played BYU, UNLV, and then almost upset New Mexico (all playing similar styles and tempo). Here is what Idaho is having to deal with. They went on the road to NMSU where they played the run and gun fast paced Aggies who mixes zone and man effectively (and lost). There they made the long road trip to Rustin to play Louisiana Tech. Tech was without their top scorer, they took the air out of the ball and played tough, man-to-man defense (also an Idaho loss). Now, they play SJSU at home, who plays a completely different tempo then both of their last two opponents and plays mostly zone defense. This is a big advantage for SJSU and one you would be wise to not overlook.
I could go on, but the bottom line is that on one hand you have SJSU coming off their most impressive win of the season and boasting the leading scorer in the WAC. On the other hand you have Idaho, a team that is 0-12 against Kenpom's top 160 since December. A team that consistently get scorched by the opponents top guard and in their last 6 games has played very poorly on offense and especially from 3-point land (where they will have to be strong tonight against SJSU's zone.
Are their red flags? Sure, SJSU is not a good road team (and that's being polite). Oliver has struggled the last three games and anytime you rely on zone defense almost exclusively, you run the risk that your opponent shoots the lights out on a particular occasion. But as I often say, if they play this game 10 times, I feel like SJSU covers (if not wins) 7 of those times. If I will that way, I am compelled to bet this game. I can see one or two ways Idaho covers this game, but there are a host of ways SJSU does in my humble opinion. Good luck with whatever you decide
* It should be noted that I have a very strong lean towards Pacific tonight against CS Fullerton. I believe I will be betting that game as well, still need to dig a bit deeper though.
1-unit on SJSU +6.5 on Matchbook
Good luck with whatever you decide
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