BrianL's Picks (and writeups) for March 2nd...

ahhh.. my absolute favorite time of the year is here....

Im gonna count my record from scratch from here on out... only betting conference tourneys, and the NCAAs...  i was 24-24 earlier in November and December when I posted on a day to day basis... I expect better then .500 though now.

First things first....


Loyola Chicago +10.5 at Cleveland State

Horizon League opens up tournament play tonight and there are some interesting matchups....

This game features the 5th seeded Cleveland State Vikings against the 8th seeded Loyola Chicago Ramblers and Loyola is a 10.5 point dog.  I just feel like this line is too high as Loyola is a bad overall matchup for Cleveland.

In the two matchups this year, Loyola was able to shut down the Vikings and cover the spread easily in Cleveland.  Cleveland won 59-56 at Loyola, and they won 62-57 as a 9.5 dog in Cleveland.   If you watched these games, though, you would see that they are very similar teams and should not be seperated by a 10 point spread.

The main key in both these games was Loyola's ability to hound the Cleveland State defense... Cleveland shot a dismal 38% at Loyola and didn't improve much by shooting 41% at home.   Cleveland also got outrebounded by 5 and 12 in the two games.  Cleveland State has struggled against zones all year and I don't see them improving much on it tonight.

Loyola Chicago has also had trouble scoring against Cleveland, but they were able to outhustle them and let the defense keep them in the game.  The turnovers were a problem, but they have been in every game for the Ramblers this year.  As long as they stick to the gameplan of there solid zone defense, they should be able to stay close enough to cover tonight.

Cleveland State is 3-7 ATS the last two years as double digit favorites...  They are not the kind of team that can cover that big of a spread as they very seldomly blow teams out.  WIth Loyola Chicago's zone defense, and the fact that Trevon Harmon is still questionable with his concussion, Cleveland State is gonna be in a dogfight and I would not be surprised to see the straight up upset.   I'll take the points though.


Cleveland State 65, Loyola Chicago 61

bol great write up

I completely agree. cle st.is a very bad rebounding team. That should be the difference.

Loyola Chicago is a very solid play today! Cleveland State is not 10.5 points better imo!  

locked in. i'd buy the hook

nice write-up. im on them and loy-ill. gl to us!

Jacksonville State at Morehead State -15

This bad line is a result of linesmakers not realizing the importance that one player can have on a team.

Morehead State is coming into this game one of the hottest teams in the country... They are a ridiculous 17-3 in the last 20 games, with the 3 losses being by 1, 1, and 9.. all on the road.  They have won 12 in  a row at home, since an early season loss to Kent State.  Their best win of the season was last week at home against Murray... they then followed that up with an obvious let down spot against Tenn Martin, winning by just 10 as 22 point favorites.... I expect the focused team to come and play tonight in their last home game of the year.  They will make a statement.

Jacksonville State on the other hand is a team in disarray and it has shown the last 3 games.    Trenton Marshall, their star SG who was the everything and averaged 17 ppg and 5 rpg, was kicked off the team on February 17th.  The team relied on him and was the key to the Jacksonville offense.  Since then, the team has looked WORSE then Tenn Martin, and thats bad.  They are 0-3 SU and ATS without him... losing at Tennessee State by 19 as a pick em, losing at home to Presbyerian by 5 as an 11 point favorite and losing at Tennessee Tech by 10 a 4.5 point dog.  Terrible results and they just don't have a chance without Marshall.

In the two meetings, Morehead State won by 7  and 19.....This was with Marshall averaging 15.5 ppg in the two games.... Without him, and the fact that Morehead just seems focused, you can't expect anything but a blowout in this one.

Morehead State 81, Jacksonville State 57

Tennessee State +20.5 at Murray State

It pains me to take this pick, but I really can't stay away from Tennessee State getting 21 points right now.  

Tenn. State was a great team to fade to start the year.   They started off the year 4-19 and 1-10 in the OVC.  Then, on February 3rd, 4 players got kicked off the team, including their leading scorer.  I was one of many who thought it was time to fade them and that they would just collapse.  Well, since then, they have actually gone in the opposite direction, going 5-3 SU and 7-0-1 ATS.  This is an overall different team.  They struggled in the first game... against this Murray team... with the rotations and getting things together.. they lost by 22.  Since then, the offense has really come together and it seems like they are alot more cohesive.  They've had an off efficiency of 1.00 or more in 6 out of the last 7 games, after hittign that mark just 5 out of the previous 13 games.   The biggest difference has been their defense...  They has an efficiency of 1.00 or more defensively in 14 out of the first 20 games..... Since then? Only 2 out of 7 games.   It has just been an unbelieveable turnaround, and I just don't see them going out without a fight.

Murray State 77. Tennessee State 65

glad to see ya on my tigers....we've been playing great ball the last month.  we are carrying some confidence into this game tonite and i expect to hang tough tonite....bol

Brian whats your take on Tennessee Tech +9 against Austin Peay do you think they stay within the number? I do think this dog has bite in it. But whats your take on this game

I think its a game that could go either way... neitehr team is playing great basketball right now.

 Lav

Great write ups, Brian

With you already on Morehead, gonna take another look at Loyola -Chicago

BOL

hmnmm.. i think this is it for the night... dont see anything else worth playing...

BOL BrianLaverty good to see a fellow rhode islander

Not seeing anything that shows Marshall is out for this game...am actually seeing that he might play

gl bl

https://www.collegeinjuryreport.com/basketball-injury-report.php?vw=J




https://www.tradingmarkets.com/news/stock-alert/ohvb_mbodji-ready-for-senior-moment-814416.html

"The Gamecocks, meanwhile, limp into postseason play on a five-game losing streak -- and seven of the past eight -- and remain without suspended OVC scoring leader Trenton Marshall"



He's suspended for the rest of the year.

"Suspended for the rest of the season is the Gamecocks’ Trenton Marshall, the OVC’s scoring leader at 17.7.

Jacksonville State announced the junior college transfer did not follow proper procedures for players with an injury or illness."

Oh wow.... they put out lines for the Big South Conference.... gonna have to do some more capping 

Excellent information BrianL. I've followed the OVC closely for a few years and your analysis is spot on. Any thoughts on E. Illinois at a pk? I think the Panthers are the more balanced team here and Laser's ability to drive and dish is the key. The Panthers have also done a great job of limiting E.Ky's leading scorer Stommes in their 2 previous matchups, holding him 8 points below his season average.

GL on the TSU Tigers play. They've been a covering machine lately. I'm leaning towards the u139.5 with this game. If the Tigers want to stay close, they have to use Sain and Covington in the half court set, which should drain the clock. If they run, it will be over before the 10 minute mark. I see a 72-58 game for Murray St.

GL with the plays tonight. 

So many people dont put any rationale for thier picks that it makes you appreciate those that do.

BOL