Dmon's Ivy Picks

PRINCETON @ CORNELL -11

This is obviously the marquee game of the weekend, and the stakes are as high as they get.  If Cornell wins, it basically assures itself of the Ivy League title, as they would move two games ahead of the pack with only three to go (and no games left against Princeton or Harvard).  The race would be over for all intents and purposes.  But if Princeton wins, they would tie Cornell in the standings and we would be on a collision course for a tiebreaker game for the League title.  And since the Ivy League has no conference tournament, the winner of the league gets the automatic berth.

Let me state right off the bat that I do not expect this to be as close of a game as the first contest between these teams two weeks ago in Princeton.  I think it’ll be more of a coronation of League Champ-to-be Cornell than anything else, as Cornell puts its stamp on its three year run as king of the Ivy League.  But will they cover?  That’s the tricky part.

In the first matchup between these teams, Princeton was able to get Cornell to play the game at its pace and its style.  Because of that, the game was close the entire way.  After Cornell jumped on them a bit early, Princeton made it a close game and Cornell just couldn’t pull away.  One huge factor in the game will be whether or not Princeton can dictate tempo again and keep the game in the low 50’s for number of possessions.

Also in the last game, Princeton had the advantage of playing behind its best home crowd in years.  The past few years their crowds have been totally dead, and they’ve played much better on the road than at home (relative to the spread).  But in that game they did seem to have a real home-court advantage.  Cornell, meanwhile, has had some pretty decent home crowds for this team.  One factor tonight, though, is that the Cornell basketball game is competing with a Cornell home men’s hockey game at the same time, and historically hockey is a much bigger deal for that school and tends to overshadow the basketball program.  Still, you’d think that for this great team and with the magnitude of this game, the crowd will still be a factor.

As for the matchup itself, I’m gonna be lazy for a minute and just copy and paste what I wrote two weeks ago for their game:  “Honestly, Cornell matches up very well with Princeton.  When they're on offense, they don't turn it over much and can shoot the three, the two most important things you need to do to beat this really good Princeton D.  Princeton's been winning with D, but they'll need to score to win today, because Cornell win get theirs today (I don't think Cornell will go so cold today like they did at Princeton last year).  But can Princeton score enough?  They can, but between their propensity to turn it over and Cornell's interior D, their only route to enough points is a hell of a three point shooting day.”  All of that is still true.  If anything, Cornell’s hot shooting from last weekend should carry over.

I have a very slight to Cornell in this game, but I probably won’t play it.  If I had to guess a score, I’d say Cornell 68, Princeton 55.  That feels about right.  I’m just not sure there’s a ton of value in laying 11 points against Princeton.

Dmon's second game:

PENN @ COLUMBIA -3

This is a really interesting game.  Let me first try to explain the first matchup between these two teams two weeks ago at the Palestra.  Penn was coming off of its emotional, tear-inducing win over Cornell, a game in which they gave everything they had and left everything out on the floor.  Columbia came in here the next night and not surprisingly pulled the "upset."  They jumped all over Penn early in the game when Niko Scott caught fire for them from three-point range and Penn couldn't make a shot (they likely had no legs).  The second half was a different story, with Penn cranking up the pressure and exposing Columbia's lack of ball-handling and propensity to turn it over.  Their 1-3-1 half-court trap gave Columbia fits and led to many Penn fast-break layups and easy buckets, and Penn came all the way back to tie it up.  But then they ran out of steam and Columbia hit a late shot and some free throws to secure a four-point win.

Let's go over the injury situation.  Penn first:  The following big men are out for the year:  Schreiber, Turley, and Loughery.  Starter Mike Howlett just returned from a foot injury after months off two weeks ago, but he's still visibly hurt and in serious pain, and will maybe come off the bench tonight and play through it for a few minutes, but won't give more than that.  And Justin Reilly just returned from injury a few weeks ago, and while he's now starting, he can't run more than a few minutes either.  Only Jack Eggleston is healthy among the regulars.  Brian Fitzpatrick, a little-used freshman, is also a big body and will probably get a few minutes tonight, but don't expect much out of him.  Also, Penn's leading scorer (Tyler Bernardini) has been out for the year for a few months now.  And at the wing spots, Penn was literally playing some JV guys for a few minutes last weekend to try to give its overworked best players some much needed rest.  It's a mess.  Now for Columbia, (terrible) big man Asenso Ampim and point guard Patrick Foley are questionable.  Ampim isn't a big deal, but Foley is their best ball handler and his being out (again) could play a factor if Penn does what I expect and dials up the pressure again.

Penn has the clear matchup advantage here.  Its biggest weakness right now is its complete and total lack of frontcourt depth and presence, but Columbia's bigs cannot create their own offense or put pressure on a defense.  Penn played a lot of four-guard/wing + 1 big man (Eggleston) in their last two games because of their roster situation, and made a big tactical adjustment when they decided to get out and run run run.  They're playing a pressure D, creating turnovers, and really forcing tempo.  They played two 71 possession games last weekend against halfcourt teams Brown and Yale!  It's been fun to watch and I expect to see them employ the same style tonight, ESPECIALLY since they essentially discovered that style in the second half of the first Columbia game and it worked so well then.

However, even though Penn has the matchup advantage, Columbia is in the better spot.  Columbia is coming off of a dreadful road sweep, including a loss last Friday to Dartmouth (Dartmouth's only league win).  Had they won that Dartmouth gave and gotten the road split, it would've been a relatively successful weekend and they wouldn't be so fired up to come out and get a win at home tonight (and I would've been all over Penn).  But since they did have an embarrassing weekend, they will be angry and fired up, and it really gives me a lot of hesitation.  That sort of emotional angle may cancel out Penn's matchup edge.

I do think, however, that there is a good play in this one.  Based on Penn's recent change in style to a more up-tempo, pressing, running team (it only happened last weekend), there is some real value in the over.  Vegas really has no way of knowing about this style change, since there's probably only 50 people on the planet who pay enough attention to Penn basketball to notice this sort of thing.  The season numbers point to a slight under (right around 125-126) and I'm not surprised that most people are on the under, but I think last weekend's style change for Penn was for real, will continue for the rest of the season, and gives us some real value tonight.

My play:  OVER 127.5

no more? 

Let him rest his fingers for a bit. I'm getting carpal tunnel syndrome just reading these things much less typing them.

nice

YALE @ DARTMOUTH +3

This one's sort of interesting, too.  Hell, they're all interesting to me lol.  Yale is coming off of its worst weekend of the year, a road sweep at the hand of the P's, while Dartmouth finally got off the schneid and registered its first win of the Ivy campaign against Columbia at home.

As horrendous as Dartmouth is, they're not quite as terrible at home, where their opponents often seem to under-perform for some reason (maybe it's because they're not used to playing in what's basically a high school gym?).  Look no further than the Columbia game last Friday, where Columbia had one of the worst shooting days you'll ever seen from a team in that place and lost to this terrible Dartmouth team.  The one thing that might be working in Yale's favor in that respect, though, is that they do not rely on jump shots too much, as their attack is much more inside-oriented and their guards try to create things attacking the hole instead of settling for jumpers, and so the weird shooting background won't be as much of a factor.  Still, Dartmouth does seem to find a way to ugly these home games up and they tend to stay close.

Yale is in a pretty good spot here situationally.  Coming off of their worst Ivy weekend of the season (their only time being swept), they should be looking to take out some aggression on a bad Dartmouth team.  I would say it's a great spot, but they do have a game against their big rival the next night so that takes something away from it.  They do match up pretty well with Dartmouth, as the fact that their offense relies on going inside and attacking should play well against Dartmouth's poor interior defense and the fact that Dartmouth doesn't have the shooters to take advantage of Yale's poor FG% defense both seem to play into Yale's hands.

I would probably lean Yale here, but I'm leery of Dartmouth because of the way games tend to be ugly and close up there, at least against teams that aren't at the top of the League.  Most likely I'll stay away from this one.

BROWN @ HARVARD -15

Alright, last game of the night.  Harvard comes into this one having accepted its fate of not winning the league after putting up a great effort last Friday night against Cornell but ultimately getting outclassed, and they responded well to that game when they blasted Columbia the next night.  Into town comes Brown, who I last week said was the most underrated team in the league and that it was secretly playing pretty good ball the past week or two without anybody noticing.  Well, after beating Penn and Princeton on the road (while I bet them to beat Penn and thought they could cover against Princeton, even I was shocked they could win that one outright in a game Princeton needed), they're not gonna sneak up on anybody this weekend.

In their last meeting two weeks ago, Brown hung with Harvard for the first half before Harvard pulled away in the second for the easy win (and cover).  Both teams are considerably healthier for this one, as Brown has Mullery and Sullivan both back at full strength, and Harvard is starting to get its big men healthy again, with Wright (a key) and Van Nest (irrelevant but provides depth) both returning last weekend and Mangarelli (a key reserve) possibly set to return tonight (he also went last weekend).

Brown is playing its best ball of the season at the moment, especially offensively, where last weekend they were moving the ball really well and capitalizing on some outstanding shooting.  But the thing is, so is Harvard, as the recent emergence of freshman forward Kyle Casey as a future all-Ivy type player has given them an outstanding second option on offense to star senior guard Jeremy Lin.  This is a clash of two teams on the upswing and it's a tough game to pick.  Harvard appears to be playing too well and too complete a game on both ends of the floor for this game to be close in the final minutes at home, but Brown is playing well enough to stay within the number.

BROWN @ HARVARD -15

Alright, last game of the night.  Harvard comes into this one having accepted its fate of not winning the league after putting up a great effort last Friday night against Cornell but ultimately getting outclassed, and they responded well to that game when they blasted Columbia the next night.  Into town comes Brown, who I last week said was the most underrated team in the league and that it was secretly playing pretty good ball the past week or two without anybody noticing.  Well, after beating Penn and Princeton on the road (while I bet them to beat Penn and thought they could cover against Princeton, even I was shocked they could win that one outright in a game Princeton needed), they're not gonna sneak up on anybody this weekend.

In their last meeting two weeks ago, Brown hung with Harvard for the first half before Harvard pulled away in the second for the easy win (and cover).  Both teams are considerably healthier for this one, as Brown has Mullery and Sullivan both back at full strength, and Harvard is starting to get its big men healthy again, with Wright (a key) and Van Nest (irrelevant but provides depth) both returning last weekend and Mangarelli (a key reserve) possibly set to return tonight (he also went last weekend).

Brown is playing its best ball of the season at the moment, especially offensively, where last weekend they were moving the ball really well and capitalizing on some outstanding shooting.  But the thing is, so is Harvard, as the recent emergence of freshman forward Kyle Casey as a future all-Ivy type player has given them an outstanding second option on offense to star senior guard Jeremy Lin.  This is a clash of two teams on the upswing and it's a tough game to pick.  Harvard appears to be playing too well and too complete a game on both ends of the floor for this game to be close in the final minutes at home, but Brown is playing well enough to stay within the number.

Summary / Look-ahead

As you can see, I don't feel too strong about any of the games tonight right now.  The only play I've locked in is the Penn-Columbia OVER.  I may add a small play or two, or I may not, but that will be the only standard-or-better bet for me tonight.

However, there are a few possible side plays I might like tomorrow night, depending on how things set up tonight:

-I like Cornell tomorrow night.  It should be a really special senior night in which the best players on the best team in the program's history all get recognized.  That emotion, combined with an unbelievable revenge spot in which they'll seek to avenge their only League loss to Penn, could make this a big one.  Also, Penn's stars Rosen and Eggleston have fared far worse on Saturday nights in the League this year, probably because of how many minutes they played the night before and just being worn down.  It'll probably be a really nice spot for a Cornell play.  Probably my favorite spot for a side play this weekend.

-I might like Harvard tomorrow night.  If Yale plays well enough to win at Dartmouth tonight, there could be some decent value on Harvard tomorrow night at home, playing well, in a rivalry game, on senior night.  Depending on how their two games tonight go, this is something I might consider tomorrow.

That's it for now.  Feel free to ask any questions you may have, and I'll do my best to answer.  Catch you guys later...



-If by any chance Dartmouth beats Yale tonight, I may consider playing Brown to beat them tomorrow in a game that should open around a pick (I guessed Dartmouth -1 last night).

Sorry for the double post.

I just discovered this DMON guy, he has some very good insight. He def knows his ivy league.

Kiwi, did DMON get boxed? Is that why you're posting for him?

awesome insight as always! 

Always a GREAT read, and your IVY League is second to none! Thanks for all the info!

Quality write ups

If I were to guess I would say he's at work and can't visit the site.  He probably has to e-mail his write-ups to Kiwi to post.

Nice Write-ups Dmon, GL

when i first joined covers,,,,,,dmon was a major reason that i kept coming back,,,great insight and just a friendly ass dude 

Sup guys.  Yeah, this is exactly right.  I can't get on this site from work.  And while I can still view it from my iPhone, it's impossible to post on the forums from an iPhone so my hands are kind of tied.  So Kiwi does me a huge favor and posts my writeups for me (after I send them via email).  Thanks again to Kiwi!

Also, since I blew it and forgot to tell Kiwi that I already started my Ivy thread last night, we accidentally created a second thread.  So here's what I'm gonna do in a second:  I'm going to copy and paste all of the writeups found here into the other thread, and I'll use that thread for the rest of the night and the rest of the weekend to do any further writeups, organize thoughts, and answer questions.  It's just easier and makes more sense to have it all in one place than to have two parallel threads.  So I'm gonna let this one die and pick up the other one in a minute...