61-33-2 STD Friday Thoughts

Thursday Review:
One of those days I wish I had played all my leans..
2-0 with James Madison and Tennesse Tech covering

Leans were:
UTChatt (win)
Clev St (win)
Ark (win)
ULLaf (win)
St.Mary's (initial lean but got off because I didn't have a good feeling)
**would like to pat myself on the back for not breaking Rule #1 last night and betting on a UT game, I would have been on wrong side again - That is a hard rule to keep**

My Rules:

1) Never bet on games involving Tennessee VOLS, my team.
2) Don't bet on PAC-10 games, Georgetown or Notre Dame.
3) Lean Home Favorite vs the Ranked Team Road Dog.
4) Use Reverse Line Movement as a tool, but not as the only tool.
5) Don't put much stock in games with suspensions/injuries.
6) Keep the units the same and plays to no more than 3 a day.

Discussion:  There has been much discussion on this forum about Rule #3 above.  Just remember this, it is GAMBLING on every game you play, there are no "sure things" and if you don't like it, don't bet it.

I had St. Mary's last night as a lean but didn't like it as the day went on so I laid off.  It felt too much like the Nova/Louisville game from earlier in the week - Public was on Zags, but 90% of covers were on St. Mary's.  It scared me away, I did the same thing with the Nova/Louisville game because of the same reason.

Also, I don't have evidence to back this up, but it seems like when Rule #3 has a small spread (1-2 pts) it hits more than when it is in the 3-5 pt spread....anyone been tracking this?

On to Friday's games...

Good night last night vol! I as well, am done backing TN-Martin. That squad is god awful. Trends don't apply to them.

How bout them Vols??

Vols,

  What you get the Chatt game at?  I had it at minus -2, and got it pushed.  Sounds like that game was a mess.

Had a player die last night at University Southern Indiana (USI,) Bruce Pearl old school.  Took a hard fall in game and died an hour later. www.courierpress.com!!!!  Sad day

Not many games on Ivy League Fridays!

Brown at Yale - No Line yet.  I think Yale will be a slight favorite in this one, around 4 points is my guess.  Yale has slight advantage by numbers but Brown is 8-1 ATS at Yale.  Brown best player is questionable.

St. Peters +6.5 at Rider - All of the numbers are basically even or lean towards St. Peters in this one.  StP is 4-5 on the road, which isn't bad.  RIder is 1-3 ATS at home.  One of Riders Starters is questionable.

Marist +14.5 at LoyMD - LMD best player is questionable.  Both teams have been struggling to score points, in the last 5 games they are both avg around 58 ppg.  Marist is 3-1 ATS away and LoyMD is 0-3 ATS at home.  This could be a game where LoyMD breaks out of their slump though playing against a horrible Marist team.  I'm thinking it will be about a 70-58 kind of game.

Ill-Chic -2 vs LoyCHI - ALL numbers point to LoyChi in this one.  LC is 11-5 and IC is 5-11, however IC is favored.  Remember the ULL/Denver game last night?  IC is 8-0 ATS vs LC and has won the last 5 SU.  To me this says IC is the bet.  LC is the better team with the better record and I'm guessing will get most of the action.

Northern Colorado -2 at Portland State - NCol has been playing some good ball lately and covering well too.  They are 6-2 on the road this year but has never beaten Port State.  If you look at the numbers you will see that PS plays no defense and don't get tricked by their shooting % at home where they are 5-0 this year (it is 62%!!).  They have played NO ONE with talent at home and includes a game where they shot nearly 70% vs Eastern Washington.  I think NC breaks that streak tonight.

Petehead - UTM is that bad this year it seems!  I was worried about the Auburn game and then we were down 12 early...didn't look good but Pearl rallied the boys to a blowout!  They are playing great TOGETHER right now!

redsox -

jwknee - great name by the way.  Thanks

straus - yeah, UTC I didnt end up playing.  That is crazy story about that kid...so sad.  NC has played well on road this year, so that part doesn't scare me...will watch the line on it today.  NO totals for me...I lose everytime! 

rockstar - GL!  I am going to watch the line on it today before playing.

SpongeBob - I'll watch the lines on those to see if I am going to play them...also some injuries.  BOL tonight.

vols, always appreciate your threads, very informational, thanks!

I read in another thread here on covers that N Col's 2nd leading scorer may be questionable. Just wondering if you had heard anything in that regards. Thanks

Hotroute - you too man.

HoustonSports - Yes, I thought about putting that in the write-up but what I saw was he is probable and didn't seem serious at all.  I will continue to monitor his status before making a play though.

Leans:

St. Peters +6.5 - I think this line will go up, so holding off.
Marist +14.5 - This may go up too, holding off.
UIC -1 - already down 1 pt, continue to monitor.
N.Col -2 - watching this one.

 Good luck!

tmp - go St.P!

classy -

cajun - depends on injuries and line movements for me on these games.

tasco - it would be hard for me to back IU without Creek...he seems to be the one that holds them together.  Not sure if we'll have any plays on this card yet.  BOL

highntight - you too.