Posted:
#1
YTD: 9-5 (2-0 2-unit plays) +6.0 units (4 winners in a row)
Hey Everyone,
Solid 2-0 day yesterday (first two play day of the season) with Weber St and New Mexico handling their business. Gotta love it when the analysis of both games play out like you plan it, doesn't always happen but its nice when it does.
I can't believe this line is so low, I would have guessed Houston -16 or more, since when does a victory over Nichols St. constitute any reason to give respect whatsoever? Most on the forum would say that they would favor Houston over Washington St in a neutral court game and yet the lines for the two games against A.A. are the same (and realize that Wash St covered that line easily against the seawolves a few nights ago). Don't forget Houston beat Nichols by 32 to start the season.
So what was different about the Nichols St game that A.A. won and the two games the got destroyed?
First, Nichols St. plays a very deliberate style of play (as well they should they don't have the weapons to matchup with anyone on the D.I level). Houston will play the fastest tempo that A.A. has played all season.
Next, A.A. was able to play with the lead instead of being behind (and yet they still had 20 to's). This team commits over 20 turnovers per game, no matter who they play! Houston has turned their opponents over to a tune of over 22 a game and this was against better competition. A.A. will be behind most, if not all of the game and I expect them to have a minimum of 20 turnovers.
Next, Nichols is not very athletic and do not play very intense man-to-man defense and certainly doesn't press. Their guards were able to walk up the ball and not face any pressure at all. This led to A.A. shooting 24 of 41 from the field instead of the 40ish% they shot the first two games. Safe to say that the sledding will be much tougher tonight as I expect Houston to pick up the pressure full-court and swallow their guards up in the half-court set.
Also, although A.A. plays a 10-man rotation, their bench production has been non-existent since the first game of the year (where A.A. moved one of their bench players into the starting lineup). The bench will play a huge role tonight as both teams are playing their third game in just over three days. Big advantage Houston!
Next, A.A. is actually a very good rebounding team (one of the few things they do a good job of), but its defensive rebounding exclusively, they actually do a poor job on the offensive glass (they outrebounded Nichols by 13 last night but the offensive rebounds were even) and they will need to do better as I suspect they will be shooting about 30-35% for this game. 2 of Houston's 4 games they have gotten killed on the glass, but I don't suspect this will be one of those games. So A.A. will hopefully not be able to take advantage of one of Houston's weaknesses.
Lastly, Houston is pissed! Tom Penders praised San Diego for controlling the tempo of the game and stated that his team learned a valuable lesson about playing their style of game instead of their up and down style. I expect Houston to come out with all guns blazing and make this game a trackmeet, bad news for A.A. They are facing a mad Houston team who thinks they should be playing for the championship and I believe Penders is going to have the boys ready to rock and roll and I don't expect a letdown in the least. Houston was awakened and I think they take it out on the Seawolves tonight.
I considered making this a 2-unit play, but there are a few things that ultimately make me decided to stay with 1-unit.
First, there is a letdown potential as the Cougars are disappointed to not be playing for the championship, will their heart be in it (my argument would be that even without their heart in it they can cover the number, and if they come to play - watchout, this could be a beatdown!)
Next, A.A. is the host school and playing for its best finish in this tourney, they should have plenty of motivation to try to make this a tough game. In an aside, I also fear they may get the benefit of some hometown calls, especially if the Seawolves have a chance in the second half (this is why I believe its important for the cougars to unleash it early and often tonight).
Lastly, this is basketball and as we all know, teams can shoot poorly or out-of-their minds, etc. And the backdoor has hurt me recently in college football so I am gun shy when laying points lately.
Good luck with whatever you choose. I will be here for a while if you have any questions, comments, or want to make a case for Alaska Anchorage - I welcome all of that. Would I be shocked if AA won? Yes absolutely - I can't imagine a scenario where that happens. Would I be shocked if AA stayed within the spread? Not at all, but if they play this 10 times, I believe Houston covers 8 of those 10, so this is why it is a play for me.
Just please save all the reverse line movement, mob is on the game, this game could be fixed b.s. that all weak follower/tailing handicappers use to justify losses or opposing opinions. As always, let's get this!
Houston -12 1 unit on Matchbook
Hey Everyone,
Solid 2-0 day yesterday (first two play day of the season) with Weber St and New Mexico handling their business. Gotta love it when the analysis of both games play out like you plan it, doesn't always happen but its nice when it does.
I can't believe this line is so low, I would have guessed Houston -16 or more, since when does a victory over Nichols St. constitute any reason to give respect whatsoever? Most on the forum would say that they would favor Houston over Washington St in a neutral court game and yet the lines for the two games against A.A. are the same (and realize that Wash St covered that line easily against the seawolves a few nights ago). Don't forget Houston beat Nichols by 32 to start the season.
So what was different about the Nichols St game that A.A. won and the two games the got destroyed?
First, Nichols St. plays a very deliberate style of play (as well they should they don't have the weapons to matchup with anyone on the D.I level). Houston will play the fastest tempo that A.A. has played all season.
Next, A.A. was able to play with the lead instead of being behind (and yet they still had 20 to's). This team commits over 20 turnovers per game, no matter who they play! Houston has turned their opponents over to a tune of over 22 a game and this was against better competition. A.A. will be behind most, if not all of the game and I expect them to have a minimum of 20 turnovers.
Next, Nichols is not very athletic and do not play very intense man-to-man defense and certainly doesn't press. Their guards were able to walk up the ball and not face any pressure at all. This led to A.A. shooting 24 of 41 from the field instead of the 40ish% they shot the first two games. Safe to say that the sledding will be much tougher tonight as I expect Houston to pick up the pressure full-court and swallow their guards up in the half-court set.
Also, although A.A. plays a 10-man rotation, their bench production has been non-existent since the first game of the year (where A.A. moved one of their bench players into the starting lineup). The bench will play a huge role tonight as both teams are playing their third game in just over three days. Big advantage Houston!
Next, A.A. is actually a very good rebounding team (one of the few things they do a good job of), but its defensive rebounding exclusively, they actually do a poor job on the offensive glass (they outrebounded Nichols by 13 last night but the offensive rebounds were even) and they will need to do better as I suspect they will be shooting about 30-35% for this game. 2 of Houston's 4 games they have gotten killed on the glass, but I don't suspect this will be one of those games. So A.A. will hopefully not be able to take advantage of one of Houston's weaknesses.
Lastly, Houston is pissed! Tom Penders praised San Diego for controlling the tempo of the game and stated that his team learned a valuable lesson about playing their style of game instead of their up and down style. I expect Houston to come out with all guns blazing and make this game a trackmeet, bad news for A.A. They are facing a mad Houston team who thinks they should be playing for the championship and I believe Penders is going to have the boys ready to rock and roll and I don't expect a letdown in the least. Houston was awakened and I think they take it out on the Seawolves tonight.
I considered making this a 2-unit play, but there are a few things that ultimately make me decided to stay with 1-unit.
First, there is a letdown potential as the Cougars are disappointed to not be playing for the championship, will their heart be in it (my argument would be that even without their heart in it they can cover the number, and if they come to play - watchout, this could be a beatdown!)
Next, A.A. is the host school and playing for its best finish in this tourney, they should have plenty of motivation to try to make this a tough game. In an aside, I also fear they may get the benefit of some hometown calls, especially if the Seawolves have a chance in the second half (this is why I believe its important for the cougars to unleash it early and often tonight).
Lastly, this is basketball and as we all know, teams can shoot poorly or out-of-their minds, etc. And the backdoor has hurt me recently in college football so I am gun shy when laying points lately.
Good luck with whatever you choose. I will be here for a while if you have any questions, comments, or want to make a case for Alaska Anchorage - I welcome all of that. Would I be shocked if AA won? Yes absolutely - I can't imagine a scenario where that happens. Would I be shocked if AA stayed within the spread? Not at all, but if they play this 10 times, I believe Houston covers 8 of those 10, so this is why it is a play for me.
Just please save all the reverse line movement, mob is on the game, this game could be fixed b.s. that all weak follower/tailing handicappers use to justify losses or opposing opinions. As always, let's get this!
Houston -12 1 unit on Matchbook
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