All Forums | College Basketball

***Key Elements Betting College Basketball***

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 1721
Posts: 25
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 533
Posted: #1

Last year I placed a few bets in college bball but really had no clue what I was doing...

Anyone out there willing to give some advice would be much appreciated

BOL to everyone this year

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2007
Posts: 22212
Posted: #2
I don't really know what kind of advice your looking for.  Maybe you should get very familiar with one conference and just play those teams.  I really think college basketball is a lot of research, and a lot of momentum!
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 533
Posted: #3

I guess I am looking more or less for answers that state the better stats to look at throughout the year to get an understanding about each team and how they match up and things like that....

Regarding playing one conference that sounds like a good idea will for sure keep that in consideration

thanks wood

 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 5760
Posted: #4
Don't make a bet without looking at the stats on www.kenpom.com 

Its the #1 key to betting totals and is HUGELY profitable.
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2005
Posts: 16017
Posted: #5

i was just going to say dont bet

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2007
Posts: 22212
Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by BrianLaverty:

Don't make a bet without looking at the stats on www.kenpom.com 

Its the #1 key to betting totals and is HUGELY profitable.


Laverty do you just look at the average scored and allowed by teams or what?  Big fan of KenPom ratings but have never really been to into betting totals
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2006
Posts: 21567
Posted: #7
Look at the pace numbers, def. efficiency and off. efficiency on KenPom when betting totals.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2006
Posts: 1289
Posted: #8
You can always spot bet I.E. sandwich spots, revenge games, look aheads.etc.
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 5760
Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by woopdurritis:



Laverty do you just look at the average scored and allowed by teams or what?  Big fan of KenPom ratings but have never really been to into betting totals


They #1 key stats are adjusted tempo, adj defensive, and adj offensive.  

Tempo is HUGE for totals... you wanna look at possessions per game.

Adj Offensive eff is points per possession, with the opponents defensive rankings adjusted into it.

Adj Defensive eff is points given up per possession with the opponents offensive rankings adjusted into it.

For example, looking at last years stats... heres a basic of how you can come up with a total:

Lets say VMI played UNC

VMI tempo: 80.9 possessions per game
UNC tempo: 73.9 possessions per game

I would say there is about 78 possessions in this game.

VMI's offfensive:  106.3, or 1.063 points per possession
UNC Defense: 89.6 or 0.896 points per possession.

Based on 78 possessions and an avg of .975 ppp, VMI scores 76 points.

UNC offense: 124.2 or 1.242 points per possession
VMI defense:  108.2 or 1.082 points per possession

UNC scores:  91

The projected score in a neutral court would be  91-76  UNC

Bad example obviously as UNC would have likely put up 100+, but a good starting point.



I also wanna say that the totals will be very sharp once February comes...  Using kenpom's stats will be MOST successful for totals in December and January.



There are other ways where using kenpom's stats could be huge in picking sides.  The keys will be looking at what defense the teams play, and looking at each others offensive strengths.  What teams are MOST reliant on 3's and what teams force the most 3's.

The teams that give up the most % of 3's will play a heavy zone.

https://kenpom.com/tmleaders.php?c=OppF3GRate

As you can tell by this, its quite obvious without even watching these teams that SIU-Edwardsville and Drexel both played tight man-to-man, while Chattanooga and Air Force both played zone.

You just have to look for situations where a great 3-point shooting team thats reliant on is playing a team that gives up a lot of 3-point attempts.  

AN example from 2008-2009 was Wisconsin Green Bay against Valparaiso.

Valpo played a zone defense, and gave up the 320th most 3-pointers, at almost 40% of all attempts.

Wisconsin Green Bay took 36% of there shots behind 3 and hit 40% of them, so they would be considered a solid 3-point dependent and reliable team.

Bad matchup for Valparaiso.

Wisconsin Green Bay won both meetings... 83-76 and 76-61.

Wisc-GB covered both and both games went well over the total.

You just have to use the stats given smartly.



 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 5760
Posted: #10
One thing I forgot:

Make sure you have an account at bookmaker for CBB season.   They are the first ones to release the totals every day, usually the night before and you'll lose a ton of value if you wait for betjamaica to release the totals.

Don't get me wrong.. i love betjamaica and I'm really not that hot on bookmaker at all, but you have to get the totals  when they first come out... I've seen them move as much as 12 points from the opening line.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 3085
Posted: #11

Honestly, the best thing is to watch a lot of basketball. As for the upcoming season, I would say watch all the non-conference games and the pre-season tourneys. A lot of times, you can weed out the teams not to bet on. Then when the conference play starts, you can use what you have learned watching the teams early in the season.There are a lot of games, so be patient.

I cannot wait for some college . 

GL

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 3085
Posted: #12

Quote Originally Posted by BrianLaverty:

One thing I forgot:

Make sure you have an account at bookmaker for CBB season.   They are the first ones to release the totals every day, usually the night before and you'll lose a ton of value if you wait for betjamaica to release the totals.

Don't get me wrong.. i love betjamaica and I'm really not that hot on bookmaker at all, but you have to get the totals  when they first come out... I've seen them move as much as 12 points from the opening line.

I have noticed that too, they do release the totals very early.

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 533
Posted: #13
thanks guys this is the kind of information I was looking for in betting basketball....keep it coming if there is more
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2009
Posts: 3
Posted: #14
early in the season is always the best time of the year, if you have been doing your homework over the summer.

the first thing i look at in a matchup is whether a team is returning starters. If a team has 4 returning starters and are matched up against a team with 3 or preferably only 2 returning starters

add in kenpom's rating's and looking for rivalry games, sandwich's and momentum games.

 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 14259
Posted: #15

I agree on the kenpom.com. Also really like scoresandodds.com.

I like the look ahead games a lot in college, also big on rivalry dogs.

I say that u have to watch the pre season big games to see what they can do.

The biggest thing I say, is maybe wait for a bit to bet on it, or follow some people in the beginning. Then, once you have some stats, always look at a team's losses. I think they tell you so much more about a team. That is a way to find patterns, or if the way they got bet was by the same kinda team. I.E.- some teams can't handle good guard play and give up 3's, or when they get beat on the boards, they lose.

 

GL man

 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 14259
Posted: #16
Do agree that you need a book for early totals like BM. Guys like KGC give out there plays, and if you are at a place that opens at 8am, or 10am, you lose at least 2-3pts
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2007
Posts: 148
Posted: #17
Lots of good information out there. I would agree with what everyone has said thus far.  As for myself I go to the standings section in college basketball here on covers and I look at teams that were great against the spread and those that were horrendous against it.  Wins and losses really dont do much for me because the spread is the equalizer.  Once I have teams that were good and those that were bad I break out The Blue Ribbon College Basketball book and look to see if the teams I have highlighted are returning basically the same team or if theyre completely brand new this helps me whittle down my teams even further.  I then go look at the losses of the teams that were good and look at the wins of those teams that were bad.  I then find the best situations to bet these teams in.  For instance I know Cal Poly is a shit team year after year and if you bet against them everytime youd do ok but if you looked closer and noticed how much value you get when you bet against them at home in conference play and especially against top tier teams in the conference your percentage would be even greater. I then look at the upcoming schedule and just plot where I will use the teams (Cal Poly will be used the most in conference at home).  I have 27 teams that I will bet on this year exclusively. 27 may sound like a lot but its not; on average once things get rolling 2 a day out of the 27 will play throughout the week and all probably will play on saturdays.  As the season begins to gather stats I use kenpom.com and a few other sites.  Having a strong basketball iq also helps ie knowing that a great point guard is invaluable when on the road in a hostile environment knowing teams that control the boards control the tempo in most cases, etc.  Just find your niche, watch the games, keep track of the upcoming schedule, monitor injuries (especially in mid major programs where the talent level drops off a lot on the bench), pay attention to coaches' statements in interviews (they tell you what they are going to try to accomplish), ride great cappers like kindergardencapper, nostradamus, special k, etc and just have fun and bet smart.  Basketball is my favorite sport to bet there is so much action that its hard for the guys to keep track of everything especially with football still going strong early in the season.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 190
Posted: #18
Man this is some great stuff here. 

Been capping college football for years, but just got into the serious capping of college hoops in the past year or so...I started years ago formulating my handicapping strategies by doing just this.  Asking questions about other people's strategies and just reading stuff like this. 

Thanks for all the great insight as always around here.



 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2005
Posts: 16017
Posted: #19

Quote Originally Posted by BrianLaverty:

One thing I forgot:

Make sure you have an account at bookmaker for CBB season.   They are the first ones to release the totals every day, usually the night before and you'll lose a ton of value if you wait for betjamaica to release the totals.

Don't get me wrong.. i love betjamaica and I'm really not that hot on bookmaker at all, but you have to get the totals  when they first come out... I've seen them move as much as 12 points from the opening line.

While i do agree Id rather have my lines as early as possible...Ive seen many lines move in my favor. I guess its tit for tat...

 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2005
Posts: 16017
Posted: #20

early in the season (first couple weeks), especially on totals...id tend to like to see how the public is going with things...they could be way off...

again I just do A-10...but i have my thoughts on some teams via totals wise and id just like to see how the lines will move first to gauge what people think and then figure out what they will be in the coming games...

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2007
Posts: 111
Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by BrianLaverty:

Don't make a bet without looking at the stats on www.kenpom.com 

Its the #1 key to betting totals and is HUGELY profitable.


Brian, can you show me the most potentially profitable way to use these ratings?

Any reply appreciated.


 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2007
Posts: 111
Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by BrianLaverty:



They #1 key stats are adjusted tempo, adj defensive, and adj offensive.  

Tempo is HUGE for totals... you wanna look at possessions per game.

Adj Offensive eff is points per possession, with the opponents defensive rankings adjusted into it.

Adj Defensive eff is points given up per possession with the opponents offensive rankings adjusted into it.

For example, looking at last years stats... heres a basic of how you can come up with a total:

Lets say VMI played UNC

VMI tempo: 80.9 possessions per game
UNC tempo: 73.9 possessions per game

I would say there is about 78 possessions in this game.

VMI's offfensive:  106.3, or 1.063 points per possession
UNC Defense: 89.6 or 0.896 points per possession.

Based on 78 possessions and an avg of .975 ppp, VMI scores 76 points.

UNC offense: 124.2 or 1.242 points per possession
VMI defense:  108.2 or 1.082 points per possession

UNC scores:  91

The projected score in a neutral court would be  91-76  UNC

Bad example obviously as UNC would have likely put up 100+, but a good starting point.



I also wanna say that the totals will be very sharp once February comes...  Using kenpom's stats will be MOST successful for totals in December and January.



There are other ways where using kenpom's stats could be huge in picking sides.  The keys will be looking at what defense the teams play, and looking at each others offensive strengths.  What teams are MOST reliant on 3's and what teams force the most 3's.

The teams that give up the most % of 3's will play a heavy zone.

https://kenpom.com/tmleaders.php?c=OppF3GRate

As you can tell by this, its quite obvious without even watching these teams that SIU-Edwardsville and Drexel both played tight man-to-man, while Chattanooga and Air Force both played zone.

You just have to look for situations where a great 3-point shooting team thats reliant on is playing a team that gives up a lot of 3-point attempts.  

AN example from 2008-2009 was Wisconsin Green Bay against Valparaiso.

Valpo played a zone defense, and gave up the 320th most 3-pointers, at almost 40% of all attempts.

Wisconsin Green Bay took 36% of there shots behind 3 and hit 40% of them, so they would be considered a solid 3-point dependent and reliable team.

Bad matchup for Valparaiso.

Wisconsin Green Bay won both meetings... 83-76 and 76-61.

Wisc-GB covered both and both games went well over the total.

You just have to use the stats given smartly.





Excellent! Sorry I didn't see this before I posted the first time.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2006
Posts: 593
Posted: #23
 excellent info.,  thanks guys
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2009
Posts: 2909
Posted: #24
One trend I noticed last year was in conference games.  The first 4-5 weeks saw road teams pk to +4 cover and win outright at a large clip if they met certain criteria (higher kenpom ratings and ELO CHESS ratings from Sagarin) Then the last month of the season it totally switched as home teams of pk to -4 defended their home court better.

 Most of this makes sense to me as home court hovers around 4 pts in college hoops, so early in the conference schedule the "better" team would usually win.  Later in the schedule teams might "gel" and seniors might defend their home court better.

I tracked all games that fell into this category and it was hitting at over 70%.  Too bad I didn't notice that change in the trend soon enough.
 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2009
Posts: 2909
Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by BrianLaverty:



They #1 key stats are adjusted tempo, adj defensive, and adj offensive.  

Tempo is HUGE for totals... you wanna look at possessions per game.

Adj Offensive eff is points per possession, with the opponents defensive rankings adjusted into it.

Adj Defensive eff is points given up per possession with the opponents offensive rankings adjusted into it.

For example, looking at last years stats... heres a basic of how you can come up with a total:

Lets say VMI played UNC

VMI tempo: 80.9 possessions per game
UNC tempo: 73.9 possessions per game

I would say there is about 78 possessions in this game.

VMI's offfensive:  106.3, or 1.063 points per possession
UNC Defense: 89.6 or 0.896 points per possession.

Based on 78 possessions and an avg of .975 ppp, VMI scores 76 points.

UNC offense: 124.2 or 1.242 points per possession
VMI defense:  108.2 or 1.082 points per possession

UNC scores:  91

The projected score in a neutral court would be  91-76  UNC

Bad example obviously as UNC would have likely put up 100+, but a good starting point.



I also wanna say that the totals will be very sharp once February comes...  Using kenpom's stats will be MOST successful for totals in December and January.



There are other ways where using kenpom's stats could be huge in picking sides.  The keys will be looking at what defense the teams play, and looking at each others offensive strengths.  What teams are MOST reliant on 3's and what teams force the most 3's.

The teams that give up the most % of 3's will play a heavy zone.

https://kenpom.com/tmleaders.php?c=OppF3GRate

As you can tell by this, its quite obvious without even watching these teams that SIU-Edwardsville and Drexel both played tight man-to-man, while Chattanooga and Air Force both played zone.

You just have to look for situations where a great 3-point shooting team thats reliant on is playing a team that gives up a lot of 3-point attempts.  

AN example from 2008-2009 was Wisconsin Green Bay against Valparaiso.

Valpo played a zone defense, and gave up the 320th most 3-pointers, at almost 40% of all attempts.

Wisconsin Green Bay took 36% of there shots behind 3 and hit 40% of them, so they would be considered a solid 3-point dependent and reliable team.

Bad matchup for Valparaiso.

Wisconsin Green Bay won both meetings... 83-76 and 76-61.

Wisc-GB covered both and both games went well over the total.

You just have to use the stats given smartly.





One thing I WONDER is if the O and D eff ratings aren't linear but algorithmic?  I.e, the farther away from the baseline (around 100) the more it matters?

What I mean is that the difference between 100 and 110 is ten percent(or .1 pts per possession).  And the difference between 110 and 120 is ten percent, but shouldnt that actually count as more since that is an elite offense (which might explain why UNC only scores 91 vs VMI when in all likelihood they would score 95-105 most likely).  It may be more pronounced on defense as only a few teams are in the 80's

Looking for opinions
All Forums | College Basketball
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Office Pools
The Covers community has
810,221
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2026 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.