To fade or not to fade

Tennis lovers around the globe rejoice - A changing of the guards has just taken place!  The unfathomable happend today when Rafa 'the Bull' Nadal held off a quarterfinal challenge by the Ecuadorian Lapentti downing him in straight sets 7-6; 6-1 to reach the Cincy semis. Thereupon, after 235 weeks as World number 1 in Men's tennis, Roger Federer known as the Swiss Master, is no longer on top of the tennis world! Roger must have looked one too many times out of that window and he gave in (think how Kramer lost the Contest!!)......leaving him no longer to be The Master of his Domain, no longer King of the County, no longer lord of the Manor....

With Fedex not being able to reach the semis here, The Bull from Mallorca, who even had an asteroid named after him a month ago, becomes the 24th player in the history of the ATP to hold the number one spot and the third Spanish player to achieve such an accomplishment (Carlos Moya 1999) and (Juan Carlos Ferrero 2003).  Nadal (at $1.40) now faces the Djoker in the Cincy semis, and if he cruises past him (which I have no doubt that he will), he will be the new World number 1 on Monday, when the new ATP ranking is released.  However, if the bizarre takes place and Nadal loses to the Djoker tomorrow, then he'll have to wait until after the Olympics to be crowned the new number 1.

This is all good and interesting Tennis trivia for all those who enjoy reading about Tennis, players, tournaments etc... However, how does all of the above affect the average punter out there, who is trying to make a buck wagering on various ATP events?!  Well, let's forget about the new World number 1 for a moment, and let's focus on the "old" bloke! The question in every punters mind is: Has the time come to fade Fedexpress?  Think about it, We would have made some sweet cash if we'd had the nerve to fade Roger against Gilles Simon (at $11) or against big Ivo Karlovic (at $8.50) Can you imagine if you'd had the balls to take those two guys for a grand each??? Arghhhhhhh we can only look back now and lament a lost opportunity....  Or was it an opportunity????

There's no doubt that you would find more scratches and dents in the Swiss Master's confidence at the moment,  than what you could find in most of the machines at a smash car rally!  During this last year he has lost to very average players like Mardy Fish, Radek Stepanek, Gilles Simon and the final blow suffered at the hands of the Croatian giant. Oh yeah I almost forgot, he also got slayed by the Bull at the French and the Djoker at the Australian Open. 

Nevertheless, let's not make too much of these losses, especially this last one to Karlovic. The great Andre Agassi once said, that Ivo is probably the trickiest player out there to play against.  Yesterday Federer lost a match where he won more points than his opponent and where his serve was never broken! He played a really good match, doing everything right - except win that last set tie-break!  "It's disappointing, losing without getting broken, but I'm not the first player it has happened to, especially to a guy like Ivo," Federer said. "He served really well, so it was always going to be a hard match. There's always danger in tough matches against Ivo." 

Personally, I believe Federer is going through a slump at the moment, which is so much more accentuated when you're a man of his stature.  Hopefully I am not being blinded by the "past" greatness of Roger Federer, but I strongly do believe that he still has that killer instinct in him, which made him to be arguably the best ever. A very good friend of mine told me this story a few days ago:    

There once was a scorpion who went on a long walk and came to a river. The scorpion  was very keen to cross the river but could not swim, so he stood there wondering how he could get across. Then  suddenly a frog appeared in the water and looked at the scorpion.
The frog said "why are you standing there looking at the water?"
The scorpion said " I want to get to the other side".
Frog: I would take you to the other side on my back, but you would sting me and I would die.
Scorpion: But if I sting you we would both die because I cannot swim.
So the frog thought about this and decided to take the scorpion to the other side because the scorpion would not want to put his life in danger.
So the scorpion climbs on the frogs back and off they swim. Half way across the river the scorpion stings the frog in the back and as they both start to sink to the bottom of the river the frog says "why did you sting me? Now we will both die".

Scorpion: I had no choice that is what I was born to do"...

Let this lil' fable be a warning to us all, and let us not not be as trusting and naive as that lil' frog. Fading Federer will only translate into scorched money.  The great man ain't done yet, he may be down but by no means out.  This is what he was born to do - The scorpion hasn't lost its sting. With bated breath I'm awaiting for the last Slam of the year starting in a few weeks time. You can get Fedex at $3.85 to win it all. You could only get him at $1.60 to win Wimbledon 2 weeks prior!!! How the times have changed. To fade or not to fade - this is the question ....