Thursday Lean, Plays and thoughts

Early plays

Mayer- 220 (5dimes)-line moved to -230 recently, Matosivic showed some solid play here last yr but really against no formidable clay court players. Mayer home in Germany playing on a friendly surface struggled in 1st match on surface taking 3 sets to beat Kubot. Expecting maybe at least 1 TB here. ML and over maybe good bets for this match. Possible 3 setter. Mayer is a smaller play

Lean

Oprandi +4, really on a good role early in this tourney, Kuzy got by against Vosk earlier today 64- 64 I can see Oprandi having a similar match, possibly a tie breaker. Kuzy is suspect with her serve, seeing atleast two games where she went out to love on her serve. Will be a tough game, only reason I like the spread is because I think Oprandi makes this tough,  small chance of upset, give that I wish this was 4.5. Still on the fence at +4.

Giving a hard look at Haas- Gulbis- early lean is Gulbis -120. Haas last played in Houston almost a month ago but at home in Germany against a pretty good inform player in Gulbis who is 8-2 in last 10 . Unlike Haas he has played a match here and looked pretty good against Jarko in easy opening match.

Parlay

Tipsarevic -260/Andreas Haider Mauerer -185 (challenger) parlay looks pretty tasty-

Adding 1 play

Challenger tennis

Jaroslav Pospisil +110- he just beat Aljaz Bedene(85,1.90) (SLO) 6-4 6-1. anyone who has seen Bedene play knows he is a beast on clay. Both players 8-2 in last 10 expect a straight set match here.

Mayer wins

over looks like hit too with it going 3. I didn't have a total imagine something like 24.5 games

Posipsil and Haider Maerer are both on serve early.

Puig +4.5 over Carlos Suarez Navarro is the next bet.

Also add Gulbis -130

Removing Gulbis play- something about home field that worries me.

Adding Vesnina + 105