I'm going with _______ to win the men's final....

5.6 units won on Rafa over Red

1 unit won on Djoko over Andy

both picks were posted here, i explained my Rafa pick with many reasons why.....

now i'm going:

RAFA  +145  (1 unit to win 1.45)

i did bet Rafa over Djoko at the 2011 wimbledon, but quickly learned from it and stayed away at the 2011 us open.

now i think Djoko has shown just enough of vulnerability (just like pre-2011) where he can be taken.

i'm only going 1 unit on Rafa, so obviously not very confident, but there is actually value here this time round.........

VAMOS!!

Djokovic is a bad matchup for Nadal

Novak does everything Nadal does but slightly better. Novak has the better defense at this point and his transition game is just as good.  The topspin forehand that hurts Roger doesn't have the impact against the two hander of Novak.

Rafa's chance is on Novak being fatigued or jaded.... if not I can't see Nadal winning this one. Remember Novak was 6-0 over Nadal last season with all matches being finals

You think Nadal wants it more than Djokovic?  Its a grand slam final... don't you think both players are motivated to win?

Djokovic did something last year I thought couldn't be done... he beat Nadal at his own game on his beloved clay. It was Novak who put Rafa in the grinder and beat him down with movement-defense and transition game.

Like I said before... the topspin forehand isn't a problem for Novak... two handers can handle the higher shots alot better than one handers.

The match will come down to how Novak is feeling... if he is feeling good he should win this... the same mental advantage that Nadal had over Federer works against him here.

Nobody is overlooking their opponent here.... they both respect each other and know they must bring their A games to win... to think otherwise is just comical. If this was Novak versus Igor Kunitsyn for the title you could maybe make an argument he might overlook him.... but nobody is overlooking Nadal.

Explain how Nadal can change his game? The only change he can really make is to attack the net more. Other than that what do you expect him to do?  Drop shots?  Novak does everything better than Nadal... the movement and defensive advantages that Rafa has over everyone doesn't exist versus a healthy Novak.

In the past it was power players who could beat Nadal. Guys like Soderling could hit through the defense. Rafa has had issues of leaving balls short and guys with power would dominate the rallies. Novak was the first player and only player to beat Nadal at his own game. And I am sorry...but thats mentally damaging for Nadal... and the head to head shows it.

Certainly Nadal can win this if Novak isn't 100%... but if Novak is feeling good it will be really-really tough for Rafa.

murray has had decent success against novak, but no one has touched novak in grand slams the last year other than federer at the french.  still, still, still, a murray who has sucked shit in his big GS finals matches in the semis and finals (not just the finals, no), actually outplayed djoko for at least 40% of that match.  what did andy do differently?  maybe lendl added a little something. 

it's not just about differences like dropshots or just coming more to the net, it's things like court position, service accuracy and placement, changing speeds, taking more chances.

you honestly don't think that rafa and uncle toni have spent numerous hrs breaking down djoko the last 4 mos?

rafa always brings his best at the GS's, so the 4 losses last spring to djoko dont matter to me too much.  but you do know that rafa had a fracture in his foot in the wimbledon final, right?  you do know that rafa had to take 5-6 wks off to heal the foot and he missed most of the hardcourt season but STILL made it to the us open final, right?

this is the healthiest rafa has been since early last yr. this the most vulnerable djoko has looked since over 1 yr ago. this is a combination that makes me  think rafa's gona give djoko hell tomorrow night.

i guess we'll have to wait and see.