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Wimbledon Day 1 + Futures & Leans

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Posted: #1
Organizing my ideas on this Saturday night...  Getting my books together and anxiously awaiting Gamelines and Totals to come out... 

I am down around 13u on Grass betting this season, so be aware...  I am just sharing what I play... I use covers as a resource for me to be a better gambler, my philosophy is if I cant write up a good argument as to why I am betting a play then it is not worth betting... If you cant convince someone that your bet is sound then its not worth playing... I have often liked a play, started a write-up and then abandoned it because my argument wasnt good enough... Keeps me disciplined...  I could care less what people think about what people think, whether they believe the amounts I bets, or how I get my action... 

With that said:

Futures:

.2u
*Davy +20970
*Fish +20970
*Nalby +23592
*Ferrer +20970
*Roddick +8500
**Cibulkova +10000

.5u 
**Kvitova +1027
*Murray +675

1u 
*Nadal/Joker/Fed to win -178




 
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Posted: #2

DAY 1 Parlay:

I havent made this play yet, but this will diplay who I consider lock... I am still waiting for lines to come out as the wimbledon folk have not finalized the draws yet, because the still need to add qaulifiers and lucky losers...   

*Nadal -8600

*Fish -695

*Haase -795

*Berdych -2665

*Murray -5250

*Ferrer -1600

*Federer -8600

*Troicki -1850

*Joker -4910

**Woz -2750

**Zvonereva -1230

**Petkovic -815


When the line comes out I would also consider adding Mattek Sands to the parlay, as well as Kvitova...

Keep in mind, I have looked at pretty much every play....  If I havent included it in the parlay, I had considered it and I can Imagine the upset... I am not saying it will happen but I wouldnt add it to a parlay... 

The Above pays +105... 

Given the 2 set format for women, vs the 5 set for men, a monumental upset I feel is more likely on the womens side.. At least in the first round....


 
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Posted: #3
CORRECTION:
1u 
*Nadal/Joker/Fed to win -178

 is wrong

Play is 

1u 
*Joker/Fed/Murray to win -178


Added Future:

.2u
**Ivanovic +13000


 
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Posted: #4
Possible Big Upsets Mens:

Giraldo Over Gasquet +418
Berrer Over Lopez +395
Gonzo +290
Daniel Evans +935
Marchenko +350

 
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Posted: #5
Leans Mens:

Isner/Mahut Over
Ivan Ljubicic OVer Cilic
Bagdatis Game Line
Bachinger Game Line
Ferrer Game line


Will cap ladies tomorrow, but still waiting on those qualifiers to get into the draw.. Qualifiers are people people too... And have to look at doubles as well...
 
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Posted: #6
 
Legend
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Posted: #7
I'm on Kvitova and Bepa from the womens side. Pretty open unlike the mens
 
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Posted: #8
PARLAY IS IN:  DAY 1 +DAY 2

*Nadal -8750

*Fish -725

*Haase -795

*Berdych -2665

*Murray -5250

*Ferrer -1600

*Federer -8600

*Troicki -1850

*Joker -4910

**Woz -2750

**Zvonereva -1230

**Petkovic -815

**Mattek-Sands -650

**Kvitova -1350


2u +122



 
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Posted: #9
*=ATP  **=WTA


Big play(s) wont come till later, but I have locked my dawgs for day 1.....

1u each

*Haas +129
*Fognini +516
*Sijsling +162
*Pospisil +480
**Rybarikova +315
**Pois-Tio +583
**Broady +143
**Cornet +134
**Pervak +300
**Dokic +124

.5u
*Bachinger +778
*Cox +975
**Tsurenko +1075
**Cipolla +1450

GL ALL

Big plays will likely come in seperate thread...


 
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Posted: #10
1.5u dogs

Giraldo +461
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by rod_steel:

I'm on Kvitova and Bepa from the womens side. Pretty open unlike the mens
what odds did you get rod? I have the same two horses. Too bad our girls will clash in the QFs but the one that comes out alive will be battle hardened only two wins from cashing. I took micro flyers on some longshots too. I will post my futures plays later and hope you comment on the wta futures stuff I am trying.

If you are willing to eliminate Nal Li, both Williams and Pova as possibilities and work from there that gives unreal value to the rest of the field. I have never seen such a flawed top four. Things are so fucked that the number one player in the world is around the seventh fave for this tournament. Value all around.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by AgainstDaConsen:

1.5u dogs

Giraldo +461
with you on this rybarikova and pervak

I think since you are in dog mode you should look at Istomin. Then again I keep waiting for him to bounce back to some semblance of last year's form and he keeps letting me down. But Kohls is just the type of headcase he can get back on track against.
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by BurningPlanet26:

with you on this rybarikova and pervak

I think since you are in dog mode you should look at Istomin. Then again I keep waiting for him to bounce back to some semblance of last year's form and he keeps letting me down. But Kohls is just the type of headcase he can get back on track against.


i stayed away because of Kohls success at Halle... I dont really cap with the "headcase" angle, especially with the men... If I lose because of a meltdown then so be it... But I will not bet hoping for a meltdown...

Also I think Istomin freefall from the ranks of the top tier is complete, he has plenty of opportuinities to grab a high quality win and he hasnt done it..  Might be challengers tour material by 2012
 
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Posted: #14
3u plays will likely be

Berrer +6 +102
Ljubicic +127
Russel +9.5 (hoping for +10)   
Berdych -9.5 (dont really see a decent line out there yet)  at the juice I might take straight sets...
**Martic ML
**Cristea -4
**Falconi ML

Books are slow on this shit, have a feeling I will be up late getting these in....
 
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Posted: #15
Will post big play, if there is one in a seperate thread....


 
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Posted: #16
another .5u in on the parlay

Now 2.5u +120
 
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Posted: #17
.5u
Istomin +349

1u
*Russel +9.5 -109

2u
*Ljubicic +128
**Falconi -138
**Martic -118


 
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Posted: #18
2u to win 1.33u
**Cristea + Makarova Parlay
 
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Posted: #19
1u
Berdych -9.5 -176
 
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Posted: #20
3u
*Berrer +6 -107
 
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Posted: #21
Final "Action" Card for Day 1:

3u
*Berrer +6 -107

2u
*Ljubicic +128
**Falconi -138
**Martic -118

1.5u
*Giraldo +461

1u
*Berdych -9.5 -176
*Russel +9.5 -109
*Haas +129
*Fognini +516
*Sijsling +162
*Pospisil +480
**Rybarikova +315
**Pois-Tio +583
**Broady +143
**Cornet +134
**Pervak +300
**Dokic +124

.5u
*Istomin +349
*Bachinger +778
*Cox +975
**Tsurenko +1075
**Cipolla +1450



 
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Posted: #22
2u to win 1.33u
**Cristea + Makarova Parlay

2.5u PARLAY +120

*Nadal -8750

*Fish -725

*Haase -795

*Berdych -2665

*Murray -5250

*Ferrer -1600

*Federer -8600

*Troicki -1850

*Joker -4910

**Woz -2750

**Zvonereva -1230

**Petkovic -815

**Mattek-Sands -650

**Kvitova -1350


 
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Posted: #23
3u
*Berrer +6 -107

1u
*Haas +129
*Russel +9.5 -109
**Pois-Tio +583
**Pervak +300


.5u
*Istomin +349

2u to win 1.33u 
**Cristea + Makarova Parlay


2-5 -3.56u so far

Not a good start... Dogs not barking yet... Big play coming....
 
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Posted: #24
I took the kool aid:

2u
Karlovic -190
 
 
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Posted: #25
you guys up watching this ?

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