Berdych +260

I wish I could get this sort of value everyday of the week.

So according to the oddsmakers who created this outrage, the birdman has 27% chance of winning against this Nadal.
Yeah, right.

Berdych already beat the best Nadal (now he isn't the best Nadal...) 3 times (h2h is 4-3 for the Spaniard), he gets better as the tournament goes on (if he chokes, he usually does in the earlier rounds and he was very close to do so against Peztschner) and he is great as the underdog. I already cashed my ticket once buying him at +170 against Gonzalez.

These courts are the fastest hard courts possible and Berdych with his flat ground strokes and his strong serve is being highly underrated. This is why Berdych beat Nadal already in this tournament in 2005 because these courts fit perfectly for his type of game.
Gonzalez was struggling and decided to pull out without any injury just because he was getting dismantled, Guccione got a free Tennis lesson from him while Nadal struggled to pass through Seppi and Mathieu, 2 known tankers.

Bye bye Rafa.

Berdych very large.

Hey mate!

I adjust as the match goes on doing what my eyes tell me to do, therefore I couldn't really tell you much now, apart from the fact I do adjust in almost all of my wagers therefore possibly yes.

However I have placed a very large wager on Berdych because even in the occasion Berydch loses the match, at these odds is a must play and even if this loses I couldn't be mad with myself!

I do bet Baseball sometimes, just for fun though and only when I have time to look at the games properly.
I think you can find some similarities between the 2 sports.

For example, in Tennis I keep track of how players do in 1st, 2nd and final sets in order to adjust. The other night I was watching a Baseball game, Angels vs Indians, and I noticed there was live betting offered. The Angels were a -140 favorite before the start of the game but in game they dropped about 20/30 cents as the Indians pitcher was pitching a no hitter through 5 innings.

So I went to look at the stats for that Indians pitcher and noticed that the first time around opponents were hitting .189, the second time around .260 and the third time around .387!!!
At that point I threw some money on the Angels who actually did start to hit him and did win the game. Perfect example of how the stats can be very helpful in-game.

I think that in every sport where the match / game is relatively long and can have ups and downs trading can be very profitable especially if you know how a player / team performs under the same circumstances based on past results.

Moreover, just as you said favorites are highly overpriced and finding value on the dogs can really help this process because especially in Tennis all you need is a break in order for the odds to go out of whack. Yesterday I bet Mathieu before the match and I traded and made sure profit when he was up 4-1 in the first set so after 5 games, of course you won't be making as much, but eliminating risks with sure profit no matter how the sporting event goes sounds pretty sweet to me!

If I can give you an advice, at first just look at the odds movement as the match goes on and notice how in-game odds are really out of whack, then start to look at how players perform in tight matches, best of 3 matches, best of 5 matches etc...
This will give you enough confidence to understand the market and pull the trigger!

Tennis Capper

Seppi and Mathieu had many chances against Nadal but couldn't capitalise on them,my only concern is that Berydch is a choker like those 2 players,can Berd take his chances today? i hope so




GL

Ace77


Very confident in the Birdman today...

Thx bro

Not worried about the break as much as I am worried about the strategy Berdych is playing with.
I don't understand why he is playing on Nadal's forehand, that is asking for trouble.

He needs to completely drop playing on Nadal's forehand and he needs to get out of the rallies earlier, trying to go forward as well as taking advantage of Nadal's second ball.
I know playing Nadal isn't easy though haha

The first set is gone, it's ok, if he makes adjustments he can still make a match out of this.

Nadal has hemorrhoids 

Berdych is playing like he should right now, attacking on deep strokes and forcing shots.
The only way he can win is by doing so, getting out of the rallies earlier otherwise he would get killed.
I didn't expect Nadal to be in this great shape after I watched the last 2 matches though.

Come on!!!

Rafa is a freak as im sure you know.

I hope he stays healthy thruout his career because he has a legit chance to be the best player we have ever seen.

phhewww
after he missed that shot on 40-15 I thought that was the match!
good hold there

I think a few other players will have something to say about that...his style of tennis ,even he does not expect a long career...I hope he plays well enough so Fed can kick his ass ....again...

Tennis...love the positive attitude bro but how can you still when he is having trouble even holding his own serve let alone even breaking Nadal...one time...