WED Coppa del Rey

Covers Posted Soccer: 75-52 +47.84 units

Real Madrid v Barcelona over 3 -130 to win 2 units

I had to lock this in as soon as my book released the number. While it might not move, there is a good chance that the public might move this line to 3.25 or even 3.5 by kick off.

3 is a safe number offering the security of getting all your money back on a 2-1 result which is important if you think there will be more than 2 goals (as I do).

My models project the following results. (Forget the winner as I developed the model the project total goals) 2-1, 2-2, 2-2 and 3-2. I also have statistical validation making this a strong 2 unit play for me.

Two of the most offensively talented teams in the world and they know how to break each other down to score. All their matches are usually very fun to watch and not reaching 3 goals would be the anomaly in this game. However, for betting purposes, we want to obtain VALUE by getting the best number and the best number for this game is 3 unless you want to pay greater than -200 on a 2.5 line which is a price I stopped betting many years ago.

Real Madrid v Barcelona over 3 -130 2.6units to win 2.

Small pet peeve ....

Rant time ... Maybe the fact I've been battling the stomach flu for the last two days has me in a foul mood so I apologize for going off the rails here .... But, I'm getting increasingly tired of people throwing around the term "units" so loosely. 20, 30, 50 100 units etc etc .... A unit is not a dollar amount. The proper use of a unit is that it refers to your "standard bet size". If you are a $50 bettor then 1 unit for you is $50. If you are a nickel bettor then your unit is $500. Take your normal bet ... That is your unit.

I won't tell you my bet size because I don't want to clog up the board with immature "yeah right" but I can tell you that my bet size equals the effort I put into handicapping these games and writing them up. There needs to be considerable return or why bother? My regular bet now is 2 units ... That is my normal wager size x 2 ... Why don't I just make that 1 unit considering I mainly bet 2 unit plays? Because I used to bet many more games at a unit and save my best leans for 2 units ... But I stopped "betting the board" long ago and mainly bet my strongest games. I still have my regular 1 unit plays though for some games.

I'm veering off topic but my point was clear ... Don't be swayed by what I feel is the incorrect use of "units" ... The reality is that a UNIT is your regular wager amount. I find it highly unlikely that people are betting 20-30 times their regular wager.

I also have another rule ... Not one play is better than the next. No matter how much statistical and projection validation I get, NEVER will a play be more than a 2 unit play for me .. Unless I am near the tail end of a very profitable week and can afford to press.

Sorry for the rant ... I just keep reading tweets from people calling out 50 unit plays leading to a gross misrepresentation of the quality or strength of a play. Keep in mind that someone calling out a 50 unit play could be using $1 as his unit size. Be weary.... (You can say I'm on the prowl for misleading touts).

Anyways ... Sorry for the rant.

Good luck with the play if you bet it.

im sorry what is a 3.25 total?

Well said. 

agree completely about unit sizes, bol with the play  

I locked it in with a heavy ML fav to knock back the juice. My week ends today, so if I lose it will just come up the top of my winnings this week. I'm getting effectively Barca over 3 +122 with my parlay. I suppose if it moves between now and Wed, and I don't see how it wont, either the juice moving, or the actual total upwards, I can get a hedge shot at plus money.

Marky_Mark13 ... the standard line offerred for soccer over under wagering is usually 2.5.  That is the regular and typical total.

However, the most popular form of totals betting these days is what's calle the Asian Handicap lines ... which gave rise to Asian totals many years ago.  If your book doesn'f offer asian lines then my best advice is to find a book that does.

A 3.25 total is 3-3.5 so what that means is (using +100 as the hypothetical line and 100 as your hypothetical wager):

Game finishes under 3 .. 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, of course, bet loses.

IF Game lands on 3 .. 3-0 or 2-1 HALF YOUR WAGER WILL PUSH the other half loses.  So, on a $100.00 wager, you would receive $50.00 back and the other $50.00 would be a loss.  You are effectively wagering on two totals with your stake (automatically) divided by two. 

To completely win the bet, the game would need to land on 4 or more.

The most commong asian lines (double bet) are 2-2.5, 2.5-3 , or 3.5.  Hope that clarifies.

Usually when a line moves off a 3, it will first move to 3.25 (3-3.5) but if the move is heavy enough the book might go straight to 3.5.  So, I try to get in on games that have the potential to move, early before it comes off a whole number.

Cheers

Marky_Mark13 ... the standard line offerred for soccer over under wagering is usually 2.5.  That is the regular and typical total.

However, the most popular form of totals betting these days is what's calle the Asian Handicap lines ... which gave rise to Asian totals many years ago.  If your book doesn'f offer asian lines then my best advice is to find a book that does.

A 3.25 total is 3-3.5 so what that means is (using +100 as the hypothetical line and 100 as your hypothetical wager):

Game finishes under 3 .. 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, of course, bet loses.

IF Game lands on 3 .. 3-0 or 2-1 HALF YOUR WAGER WILL PUSH the other half loses.  So, on a $100.00 wager, you would receive $50.00 back and the other $50.00 would be a loss.  You are effectively wagering on two totals with your stake (automatically) divided by two. 

To completely win the bet, the game would need to land on 4 or more.

The most commong asian lines (double bet) are 2-2.5, 2.5-3 , or 3.5.  Hope that clarifies.

Usually when a line moves off a 3, it will first move to 3.25 (3-3.5) but if the move is heavy enough the book might go straight to 3.5.  So, I try to get in on games that have the potential to move, early before it comes off a whole number.

Cheers

love the over 3...clasicos are always very open with valdes making crucial mistakes

its a well known fact that you get more overs when two mismatched teams play each other, while the top 2 in spain do score for fun, its more against other, weaker teams

Cheers Mr. Bollox .. I'm very mindful of your comments ... My methods factor recent form and the ability for both sides to score. Casillas injury is a factor for me as well and looking at the most ecent cup games between these two using same lineups, I am of the view that in this particular spot, the opportunity for goals is there. I would be approaching it differently if this was a league game or Champions League tie .... Usually domestic cups are a bit more free flowing.

I always appreciate feedback. Cheers my friend.

Thanks Fever, my book offers that, but I just see it as "3,3.5" I play them all the time.

FYI the price on my book dropped from 3, -133 to 3.-124 on the over in madrid/barca

Yes Marky ... The lines are offerred as 3-3.5 ... These double lines are commonly referred to as .25's.... So a 3-3.5 = 3.25, a 2-2.5 as 2.25 and 2.5-3 as 2.75.

My book still holding steady.

Just updating for easier logging after today's EPL winner in the Villa-Newcastle game:

Covers Posted Soccer: 75-52 +47.84 units

Cheers

Morning update ... My primary book has moved this total to 3-3.5 over -114

My secondary book has moved to 3-3.5 over -115.

IF you wanted to back the total and got it at 3 then good stuff. Even though you still effectively need 4 goals to cash either over 3 or 3.25 you do lose the ability for a full refund if thr game lands on 3. (Doesn't matter if the game finishes under 3, any bet would lose).

IMO, value has been excracted so. I leave it up to the reader to bet the over if they so desire.

Cheers and good luck .... Not much sticks out in the EPL for me today .... Some curious lines I want to sift through. No need to force action... Days last last Sunday. (7 plays) are rare for me these days. Cheers folks.

GL today fever, was able to lock in the over yesterday at 3 (-127)

Good luck Fever!

Line has now moved a full half goal to 3.5.  Hoping that we got it good at 3 ... game starts in 50 minutes.  good luck folks.

Update us with the scoring please.....

Lots of days defense first 15'???

ronaldo almost scored in 1st minute, good save by pinto

Damn....this game looks lime it's going wayyy
UNDER.

Fever, does this have ANY chance of getting to 3?

Jvarghese-- if you want up to the minute updates please check the score at soccer24.com or keep popping into the in game thread 

Sorry jvarghese .. I just saw this. Lots of places for live scoring updates ... Try www.livescore.com

Lots of chances but both teams unable to convert . Hoping for a push here now but these types of matches can explode with one goal ... 45 min to go and as I type this, Benzema misses great chance.

GOAL BARCA