Copa Libertadores 2013 Countdown

Hi guys and Happy. . .

I love to play Copa Libertadores . . . Copa is a big deal to the teams playing in it.  Teams take this shit serious . . .

Games being on 1/22 . . . the preliminary round playoffs of teams that were "on the bubble" but need to win their way into the tourney.

I hope that you folks do not mind if I start a thread to help me focus my thoughts on Copa Libertadores - which is rapidly approaching . . . this thread will kind of be my work in progress blog as I think through these games . . . comments are definitely welcome as I simply needed a place to process through the data . . . the data I run through in my stream of consciousness may seem general at first and it may take awhile to get to substantive thoughts ... but this is the process that I choose to follow. 

So . . . without further adieu . . .

THE FORMAT

The First Round of Copa (the Preliminary Round) involves a series of two legged fixtures . . . there are 12 teams involved . . . Team No. 1 plays No. 2 . . . and the reverse . . . the winner of each two legged fixture will advance into the Group Stage.

The Groups have already been selected for the Group Stage; there are 8 Groups, each holding 4 teams.  Of the 8 Groups, 6 of the Groups have the 4th team to be determined by the outcome of the First Round/Preliminary Round mentioned in the preceding paragraph.  

THE PRELIMINARY GAMES - THE "PLAY INS"

Before Group play begins, there are 12 teams vying for 6 of the last Group slots . . . those games start 1/22.  Those teams are paired up as follows and will play two-legged fixtures with the winner advancing:

1.  Tigre   v. Depor Anzo

2.  Leon v. Depor Iquique

3.  LDU Quito v. Gremio

4.  Bolivar v. Sao Paulo

5.  Def Sporting v. Olimpia

6.  Univ Cesar Vallejo v. Depor Tolima

THE GROUPS

The Groups should all be sorted out upon the completion of "The Play Ins" . . . and Group play starts around Feb 6.

The 8 Groups look as follows:

Group 1

Barcelona (Ecuador), Nacional (Uruguay), Boca Juniors (Argentina), Toluca (Mexico)

Group 2

Sporting Cristal (Peru), Libertad (Paraguay), Palmeiras (Brazil), Tigre or Deportivo Anzoátegui

Group 3

Arsenal (Argentina), The Strongest (Bolivia), Atlético Mineiro (Brazil), São Paulo or Bolívar

Group 4

Vélez Sársfield (Argentina), Peñarol (Uruguay), Emelec (Ecuador), Iquique or León

Group 5

Corinthians (Brazil), San José (Bolivia), Millonarios (Colombia) Tijuana (Mexico)

Group 6

Santa Fe (Colombia), Cerro Porteño (Paraguay), Real Garcilaso (Peru), Deportes Tolima or César Vallejo

Group 7

Deportivo Lara (Venezuela), Universidad de Chile (Chile), Newell’s Old Boys, Olimpia or Defensor Sporting

Group 8

Fluminense (Brazil), Huachipato (Chile), Caracas (Venezuela), Grêmio or LDU Quito

I guess there's really no reason to worry about Group play yet . . . instead, I am going to focus upon the Preliminary Games . . . as the participants in those games will be fighting tooth and nail to advance to a Group slot.

Take the following with a grain of salt . . . since no lines are posted and the matches are still a couple of weeks away . . . I just want to capture some of my thoughts as they arise.  These observations mean nothing at this time, especially until prices are set...

OBSERVATION NO. 1 re Preliminary Matches in COPA LIB:

Looking back at 2008 through 2012, the home team won the first fixture 22 out of 30 times. . . this makes sense as the away team probably tries to minimize the away damage and instead wants to bank at home on the reverse. . . so . . . general observation no. 1 . . . since at least 2008, the home teams in the first leg seem to have a good shot at winning (again - I know there are MANY other factors to consider - again - this is just a general set of observations.  22 wins,  3 losses and 5 draws.  Gotta factor in that the HOME team in the 1st leg wins at a higher rate. 

Of course - additional specific information needs to be evaluated for each match and it would be folly to rely solely upon a historical trend . . . but this is an important observation . . . and rational in light of the away teams' potential desire to minimize damage in the first game and instead pour on the heat at home in the reverse.

PRELIMINARY GAME NO. 1

TIGRE (Argentina) v. DEPOR ANZO (Venezeula)

Tigre is frustrating to research.  First off, Tigre qualified for Copa Sudamerica 2012 (NOT LIBERTADORES) after playing well in league play in Argentina. . . for example, Tigre finished 2nd in the 2011/2012 Clausura (21/9 goal diff at home) and had a middle table Aperture 2011/2012.  But ... Tigre then goes on to garbage the bed in the most recent phase of league play .. hitting 19th in the table . . . with a not-so-sexy goal differential of -11.   

HOWEVER, Tigre qualified for this COPA LIBERTADORES because Tigre advanced further than any other Arg team in Copa Sudamerica 2012 - they damn near won it and were runner up . . .

So - did Tigre decide to focus its energies on a Copa Sudamerica run and does that explain why (1) a team that played so well in 2011/2012 (2) could fall to 19th in 2012/2013 league action (3) WHILE STILL almost winning Copa Sudamerica 2012 during the downward league spiral???? 

Tigre did very well in Copa Sudamerica 2012 . . .however, up until Sao Paulo, it would appear that the competition it faced wasn't much to write home about (like the fat girl at Young Life Camp) . . I am not sold on Tigre . . . MAYBE if there were some good transfers?  Surely, the money obtained by virtue of the 2nd place Sudamerica finish would allow the acquistion of some formidable players?  Check transfers...

Tigre has been idle since 12/12/12 - its Sudamerica loss to Sao Paulo . . .

Gonna need to see some good transfers coupled with positive media points to like Tigre. . .

Ganda!!!  Good riddance!  Shameful to not be able to score goals against Luton when "it was nut cutting time"!!!  Win big today - slow day at my office so rather than do time entry, just looking forward to Copa!!

Mala! Thanks - I know it may be premature but I want to be prepared . . . It's like why I bought condoms at the age of 2 . . . someday, I hope to use them.  I'm now 42.

DEPOR ANZO is a very interesting candidate from Venezeula.  It won its way into LIBERTADORES by having the best 3rd place aggregate point count in 2011/2012 ... not too shabby (but it IS Venezuela) . . . VERY strong at home ... I did a very rough count ... spanning back about the last 60 home games for them ... they won about 80% of those matches ... So ... the reverse in Venezuela should be very interesting ... maybe they play it tight in Argentina on the road and seek to hit it hard at home???

Damn - it is a long flight for Depor Anzo to Tigre ... but Depor hasn't played a match in over a month ... and the game against Tigre will be its first action in 2013 - so there should be no fatigue.