Posted:
#1
With Spain, Portugal, France, Czechs boring everyone, and Brazil averaging about 1 goal a game, it's nice to actually have some good soccer today where players show hustle, don't dive like bitches, and put forceful tackles in.
530pm EST Toronto vs New England - tough game to figure out. Everyone says (including their new coach) that Toronto's problem is defense, but that's actually not true. At home, their offense has been the problem. They've lost some games 0-1, 0-2 this season. New England is a historically (going back to when they start sucking again) bad away team, but the pk line on Toronto just too high. Toronto home trends under, NE away trends over. No good value anywhere. Would pick Toronto pk if it was the only game on the board and I was desperate to make a pick. No play.
7pm Philadelphia Union vs Sporting Kansas City - Another "stay away" game due to new coach being a factor. Philly played very well last week at home against DC, missing various chances before being sucker-punched and losing 1-0 at home. Another line that doesn't lend itself to a pick. This game has been historically close (1-0, 1-1 types) and SKC is favored on the PK at -145, which is too high for me. I don't see them losing, seeing something like a 1-1 here but can't pull the trigger on anything. No play.
730pm Montreal Impact vs Houston Dynamo - Finally something I can sink my teeth into.. and yet another close game. Houston is usually very solid, keeping games tight and their defense tighter, but I have to pick the over here because Houston are not themselves, as anyone who saw the HOU/TOR game saw. Montreal are coming from four straight overs, and their defense has plummeted while their offense has skyrocketed. And Houston had their last 5 games go over as well. Hopefully they keep in form with their defensive mistakes and good finishing. Over 2.5 +102
830pm Chicago vs Columbus - Columbus is an under machine while Chicago has been great at home and horrendous away. Chicago could run away with this, or Columbus could have everyone sleeping 30 minutes in. Who the hell knows. Still, I like Chicago to not lose here. They have one loss at home, to the then-league leading Sounders, while the Crew have some dour away draws with some dour teams (New England, Portland). Likely ends in a draw but Columbus just bunkers in and unless they get lucky like they did against the Sounders (their best win/away win of the season) I don't see them winning this. The Sounders have offensive problems sometimes, but very rarely are the Fire held scoreless at home. Chicago NTL -105/+241
9pm Dallas vs Chivas - Don't look now but Dallas are bottom of the West. Chivas have big trouble at home for some reason, but their game works perfectly away from home. Chivas have one away loss (to Colorado) and have played extremely impressively at places like RSL, NY, SJ. Dallas haven't won in 10 games, and continue to be overvalued because of their contender status the past few years. Chivas NTL -101
9pm Salt Lake vs San Jose - I will continue riding the over train on both teams. RSL's defense imploded against LA midweek, while SJ keep on scoring goals. RSL are always good for 1/2 goals (1 on a bad day, 2 on an average day = very good home form) at home and SJ have scored at least one goal away from home every game this season. Over 2.5 -111 and if I had a *PLAY OF THE WEEK* or went double units on any pick, I'd make it this one.
1030pm Los Angeles vs Vancouver - This line went from -125 to -158. Why? Because LA beat a horrible Portland 1-0 at home, and beat RSL on three gifts? Vancouver is a very solid team and the Portland game was the first time LA shut a team out a home this season. If Vancouver aren't afraid (like France were today) of LA's reputation, they'll attack and score. And if LA is TRULY back, they'll score at least 2 and win. So instead of the "LA at home lock" that a lot of people chase and lose with, we'll make this an Over 2.5 -110 pick. If LA are back, they'll win this 1-0/2-0 and I'll lose. But two results that look very fluky to me won't convince me otherwise.
530pm EST Toronto vs New England - tough game to figure out. Everyone says (including their new coach) that Toronto's problem is defense, but that's actually not true. At home, their offense has been the problem. They've lost some games 0-1, 0-2 this season. New England is a historically (going back to when they start sucking again) bad away team, but the pk line on Toronto just too high. Toronto home trends under, NE away trends over. No good value anywhere. Would pick Toronto pk if it was the only game on the board and I was desperate to make a pick. No play.
7pm Philadelphia Union vs Sporting Kansas City - Another "stay away" game due to new coach being a factor. Philly played very well last week at home against DC, missing various chances before being sucker-punched and losing 1-0 at home. Another line that doesn't lend itself to a pick. This game has been historically close (1-0, 1-1 types) and SKC is favored on the PK at -145, which is too high for me. I don't see them losing, seeing something like a 1-1 here but can't pull the trigger on anything. No play.
730pm Montreal Impact vs Houston Dynamo - Finally something I can sink my teeth into.. and yet another close game. Houston is usually very solid, keeping games tight and their defense tighter, but I have to pick the over here because Houston are not themselves, as anyone who saw the HOU/TOR game saw. Montreal are coming from four straight overs, and their defense has plummeted while their offense has skyrocketed. And Houston had their last 5 games go over as well. Hopefully they keep in form with their defensive mistakes and good finishing. Over 2.5 +102
830pm Chicago vs Columbus - Columbus is an under machine while Chicago has been great at home and horrendous away. Chicago could run away with this, or Columbus could have everyone sleeping 30 minutes in. Who the hell knows. Still, I like Chicago to not lose here. They have one loss at home, to the then-league leading Sounders, while the Crew have some dour away draws with some dour teams (New England, Portland). Likely ends in a draw but Columbus just bunkers in and unless they get lucky like they did against the Sounders (their best win/away win of the season) I don't see them winning this. The Sounders have offensive problems sometimes, but very rarely are the Fire held scoreless at home. Chicago NTL -105/+241
9pm Dallas vs Chivas - Don't look now but Dallas are bottom of the West. Chivas have big trouble at home for some reason, but their game works perfectly away from home. Chivas have one away loss (to Colorado) and have played extremely impressively at places like RSL, NY, SJ. Dallas haven't won in 10 games, and continue to be overvalued because of their contender status the past few years. Chivas NTL -101
9pm Salt Lake vs San Jose - I will continue riding the over train on both teams. RSL's defense imploded against LA midweek, while SJ keep on scoring goals. RSL are always good for 1/2 goals (1 on a bad day, 2 on an average day = very good home form) at home and SJ have scored at least one goal away from home every game this season. Over 2.5 -111 and if I had a *PLAY OF THE WEEK* or went double units on any pick, I'd make it this one.
1030pm Los Angeles vs Vancouver - This line went from -125 to -158. Why? Because LA beat a horrible Portland 1-0 at home, and beat RSL on three gifts? Vancouver is a very solid team and the Portland game was the first time LA shut a team out a home this season. If Vancouver aren't afraid (like France were today) of LA's reputation, they'll attack and score. And if LA is TRULY back, they'll score at least 2 and win. So instead of the "LA at home lock" that a lot of people chase and lose with, we'll make this an Over 2.5 -110 pick. If LA are back, they'll win this 1-0/2-0 and I'll lose. But two results that look very fluky to me won't convince me otherwise.
0
Maybe you meant to say MLL lots of goals in Lacrose
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