Messages

This preview and power ratings are designed as a snapshot PRE TOURNAMENT.  Things happen quickly – injuries, playing form, suspensions etc – so please read this only as wagers and rankings that are being made as of today pre-tournament.  I will update as we move through the tournament.  I don’t have the time or energy to write up every team for every group.  I have opinions about all – doesn’t mean I haven’t done the work – just finding it hard to find the time to put on paper.  Will discuss if asked……

Overall tournament notes:

·         England is overrated.  Again.  How England can be 4^th favorite in this tournament is beyond me.  Does anyone look at the roster?

·         Poland is very short priced and are a sexy pick.  Will pick spots to bet against them.

·         Ukraine is basically made up of Dynamo Kiev (9) and Shakhtar (5) players.  Works for Spain and Germany, maybe will work for the Ukraine as well.

·         France will put WC 2010 behind them.  This squad is loaded and should do very well.

·         Russia is the class of their group.

·         It’s a shame Croatia is in a group with Spain and Italy.  I will pick my spots with them.

·         Italy for me is the cheapest of all contenders.  I will have them at 14-1 to win the tournament.

·         Groups A and D are far inferior to B and C.  Should present some good value in the knockout stage.

·         The first round in intl tournaments have turned in to under fests.  WC 2010 was under 2.5 14-2, and Euro 2008 first round was under 2.5 6-2.  When in doubt, bet under in the first round.

Predicted order of finish in each group:

Group A:

Russia  7

Czech 5

Poland 2

Greece 1

Group B:

Germany 9

Netherlands 6

Portugal 3

Denmark 0

Group C:

Spain 7

Italy 5

Croatia 4

ROI 0

Group D:

France 9

Ukraine 6

Sweden 1

England 1

Opening round game bets:

Poland vs Greece:  Poland come in as co-hosts for the tournament, and are probably going to be overpriced most of the way.  So what happens when two counter-attacking teams play each other?  Greece will sit back and defend all day.  They hope to keep it 0-0 or steal one at 1-0.  For as much as I think Greece are garbage – the one thing I can’t get out of my mind is that they were in the same qualifying group as Croatia – and drew with them on the road – and then in the second to last game that would decide sure qualification – beat Croatia 2-0.  The game was played like they always play – counterpunching – but to beat a side of that quality in a match of that importance can’t be written off.  Maybe they will join Chelsea in the year of anti-football success.  In qualifying – 14 goals scored and 5 conceded in 10 matches.

Poland will play similarly, with Lewandowski as the lone man up front hoping to counterpunch.  Lots of pressure on the young home side.  I just see a lot of play in the midfield, with few opportunities or space.  Given that this is the opening game – and both teams will play not to lose – I see the most likely result as a draw.  Therefore, I will be on Greece +.5 at +112 for a small 1 unit.  I also like the under but since it is 2 and giving juice – I will stay off of that.  Most likely result Greece 0 Poland 0 .

Russia vs Czech:  The Czechs aren’t much to speak of – anchored by a decent defense and probably the best goalkeeper in the world – they will play defensively.   I just don’t buy that Rosicky is going to be able to quarterback this side to go very far without anyone up front that is a finisher.  Russia on the other hand are loaded – and their usual weakness – defense – seems to have been shored up lately.  I see Russia with the bulk of possession and chances in this one.  I would have liked to have seen this match later in the group calendar – but I will still be on Russia to win at +128 for 3 units.  Most likely result Russia 2 Czech 0.

France vs England:  Im going to post this one early without a writeup, because the line keeps moving….  France PK -120 (I started betting it back at +110 all the way to -110, but I think this is good all the way to -150) for 5 units.  Big one off the bat.  Most likely result France 3 England 1.

Yeah.  Without the Bayern players, that will happen.  They lost 5-3 to the Swiss the other day without Neuer, Badstuber, Boateng, Lahm, Kroos, Mueller, Schweinsteiger, or Gomez. 

Please.

Thanks Bracks - to me - there are 4 legit contenders - Spain, Germany, Italy, and the Dutch - so I will take Italy with the best odds of the group.  Look - anyone who gets in the final 8 is only 3 wins away from the title - so anything can happen - but I just think Italy at 14-1 is silly.

Agree with your comments about Spain.  Not sure how you go 4 years without a break and those expectations might finally catch up to them.  Also agree about their possible lack of scoring punch as their potential weakness.  Man for man - they cant be beat - but in any 90....

Looking forward to your picks.

Everyone else - thanks.

Here's to a great tournament.

BTW - I am not making the trip to the games.  Some personal stuff keeps me at home this time.