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[General Discussion] Topic: Why isn’t handicapping at +70% possible? Who said is was not possible anyway?... |
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KScapping |
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#1 Posted: 12/12/2011 3:21:31 AM I challenge you to exceed your preconceived potential in
sports handicapping, and I would like to help you do so—if you allow me
to. I contend that most everyone
involved in sports handicapping know others that handicap and bet sports;
therein lays the problem. If you are
like the rest of us on the planet, you begin to unknowingly adopt the belief
systems of the ‘crowd’ you congregate with.
If you are going to accomplish greatness in sports handicapping, you are
going to have to ‘go it alone’ and defy the opinions and people that want
nothing more than to keep you down with them.
I ask that tolerate me through the first paragraph of this; the purpose
of this is to solidify my points to be made as you read just a little bit
further. The purpose of the initial
paragraph is to validate my voice to you before we venture on.
People
will tell you that above 58% long term handicapping is not possible; I can
promise you from personal experience that it is not only possible, it is being
done as you read this. I was told by
posters here on Covers that there was no way I could do it; yet I have been
doing it for years, but I felt implored to prove it to the ‘haters’. I was already documenting my plays so as to
make them easily verifiable, but upon a suggestion, I started posting every one
of my plays in one single thread—ending any possible challenge of my actual
results. Believe it or not, this is not
about me boasting, but rather about you no longer listening to the people who
want nothing more than to stop you from reaching above what they themselves
feel they can achieve. This is about
getting you to eliminate the crippling emotional thinking, and approaching
handicapping from a logical, and rational mindset. As stated, this is not about my boasting, but
showing you verifiable results will solidify my case that you are listening to
the wrong voices if you believe the whole “the very best cap at 58%”. My verifiable results are: All Posted Plays:
50-29 (63.3%).
Last 27: 20-7 (74.1%).
Last 10: 7-3 (70%)
HERE IS MY POSTING LINK:http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101200976&page=1
Yes, I
know… the haters will now say “just wait, you will go on a cooler” and come
down to earth. I have been defying what
people have told me I can, and cannot do my whole life—I will continue to do so,
and help others see through the motivation of negative and insecure
people.
Running a
six minute mile was once thought to be impossible, then the five minute mile
was the mark that the nay-sayers swore could not be achieved. On May 6th 1954, Roger Banister broke
the world’s first recorded four minute mile—just a year after almost giving up
running entirely. Banister tells of how
the entire running world tried to tell him he was wasting his time attempting
such a fool hardy endeavor. Even his
closest friends tried repeatedly to convince him that it was just not possible. |
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KScapping |
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#2 Posted: 12/12/2011 3:21:52 AM When someone tells you that the ‘best of the best’ can only
handicap sports at 58%, the first question you need to ask is why can’t you supersede
their performance? Who says that they
cannot be beaten? All you need is a
logical plan, discipline, accurate results tracking, analysis of your results,
and the willingness to realistically self-examine your methods, and
consistently adjust your methods as the need arises.
The
reason you can go on ‘heaters’ and ‘coolers’ is not the games; the reason is
because of you, and the way you are thinking during these ups and downs. The games stay the same—sometimes the
expected happens, and sometimes the unexpected happens, but it you post cap all
of your plays to examine why certain things happened you will realize many of
the unexpected occurrences actually could have been predicted, at least as
possibilities. It is the lazy man’s
excuse to say “he turned the ball over 4 times.
No one can predict that”. The
worst thing you can ever do in accomplishing a worthwhile goal is to put the
blame on something outside of your control.
Go back and post cap that game the the QB turned the ball over 4 times
until you find ONE way you could have seen the potential of what happened on the
field.
Start to
accept that you are not always ‘on your game’.
No one I have ever seen known of, heard about, or existed is/was always
in the ‘zone’ at whatever they do all the time.
If you can find a way to duplicate the mindset you were in when you were
in the ‘zone’, you can be in the ‘zone’ each time you feel/think that way. It is absolutely necessary to self-actualize the
state of mind/spirit you are in at any given time. Find something that puts you into the proper
state of mind you need to be in to perform at your best as you handicap your
games. Music works for some to change
their state of mind/spirit. Mediation
works for me—and sometimes music works for me as well. Find what it is that makes you feel good;
make sure you do feel good before deciding on what your card will be for today,
or any day. Don’t worry if you struggle
with this endeavor, but don’t handicap any games until you have the right
mindset and you will eliminate many of the games that were going to be part of
the 42% the nay-sayers claim the ‘best’ have.
Spend your time reading articles about the teams you follow instead of
handicapping. Just make it a information
gathering session. Do this enough and
you will start to see games the next day—or day after—clearly, and effortlessly
see an edge that you otherwise would have missed.
Don’t bet
games unless you have a clear vision of the entire games scoring evolution in
mind. Very few sport’s handicappers I
have seen actually have a guess in mind of a final score of games that they bet
on. Most Sports bettors will say
something like “oh, that game will definitely go over 42”, but if you ask them what
the final score will be they will hesitate (obviously contemplating this for
the first time). Then ask them what the
halftime score will be (ect). Forcing
yourself to run the game simulation in your mind after you pounded the stats,
looked at the pertinent trends, viewed the match up histories, researched the
recent team news, and verified probable starters will aid you in solidifying a
solid edge, or even change your mind about an edge too small to wager. Pounding massive information about upcoming
games you are planning to wager will make mental game simulations easy for you;
cut the information short and the simulations will seem problematic (letting
you know that you are not prepared to wager that game). Once you can run these mental scoring simulations
you are ready to make an educated deduction of which side/total has the biggest
edge. |
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KScapping |
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#3 Posted: 12/12/2011 3:22:11 AM An un-played losing ticket has more monetary value than a
played winning ticket. Think about it;
if you play a game for $100 that wins, you win $90 (on a -110 line), but if you
talk yourself out of not playing a game that ended up losing you saved $110—a net
swing in your pocket of $10. Now start
to ask yourself how you can begin eliminating losing plays. Have you ever been on a ‘cooler’ and as the
day goes on you start pressing your unit play until the last game of the
day. That last game is the one that if
you bet it big enough you could wipe away the day’s losses and walk with a
profit. Isn’t it funny how those last
chases of the day tend to lose at mind numbingly high percentages. Hmmm…. How is that? I would venture to say that most reading this
right now would agree that those last game chases lose at 80+%, right? Well isn’t that an unrealistically high
percentage of accuracy according to the nay-sayers? Whether it is losers or winners, picking over
58% is not feasible right? You have to start keeping a log to begin to
pinpoint the games, days, weeks that you cap well, cap badly, and start to find
ways to duplicate the winning methods, and eliminating your tendencies, or
plays, or ways of losing methods.
What I am
saying here is that this is such a simple endeavor, but you have to follow a
few general guidelines, and then start to develop custom guidelines to
accomplish your handicapping goals. If
you believe the people that tell you the 59+% is not possible, then they are
telling you correctly. Believe what you
will, but if you constantly work to lessen your losing plays, increase your
winning plays you will continue to improve your percentages until you stop this
process. If you are about to cap your
card, but you just don’t feel like you are in the ‘zone’…STOP CAPPING and get
your mind right, or do something else—at the very least you did not waste the
time, and you saved money more often than not.
Don’t ‘wing it’ any longer—don’t play games you simply have a general
gut feeling on, but bet games that you worked hard on, know inside and out, and
then your gut is going to be right a heluva lot more that it is wrong (your
conscience mind can only readily retrieve a limited amount of information, but
it actually stores every single thing you ever knew, learned, said, and heard. Once you pound a game inside and out your gut
is then your sub-conscience screaming to you to play/don’t play this and that
game). And Stop externalizing and
accepting that a play was not your fault, it was the ref, the weather, the
this, or the that. If you lost,
something is there that might have warned you to the possibility. Even if it was something that no one short of
God could have foreseen, it hurts your future by pointing the blame elsewhere—find
a way to take responsibility for the loss.
Do these
things and I promise you that you will win more plays, lose less plays, know
your games in more detail, and have more of a bankroll. I can point out the nay sayers very easily—they
will be the one who never post anything like this trying to help anyone, but
will attempt to discredit my work for no logical reasoning. I am impervious to the haters, and writing
this was 100% worth it if it helps one person.
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sniperswife |
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Captain
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#4 Posted: 12/12/2011 3:40:28 AM 
Everyone wants to go 5-0... My goal is to go 3-2 ATS everyday..
I play mostly Dogs.
My strategy is:
Play the favorite in the 1st half.
Play on Dog fullgame.
Play on Over 1st half.
Play on Under fullgame. |
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KScapping |
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Veteran
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#5 Posted: 12/12/2011 3:45:14 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by sniperswife: 
Everyone wants to go 5-0... My goal is to go 3-2 ATS everyday..
I play mostly Dogs.
My strategy is:
Play the favorite in the 1st half.
Play on Dog fullgame.
Play on Over 1st half.
Play on Under fullgame.  |
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dogunder |
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#6 Posted: 12/12/2011 3:57:40 AM  |
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selfcontrol |
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#7 Posted: 12/12/2011 4:01:12 AM  |
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zig_zag |
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#8 Posted: 12/12/2011 4:13:03 AM  |
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DILIGENT |
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#9 Posted: 12/12/2011 4:23:03 AM I totally agree on what you are saying...like how you think.
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nfl_brosuf |
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#10 Posted: 12/12/2011 4:24:25 AM
From zero to hero each week for me..
thanks for them tips. I take it all for the win.
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zsd |
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#11 Posted: 12/12/2011 5:06:55 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by KScapping:
50-29 (63.3%).
Last 27: 20-7 (74.1%).
Last 10: 7-3 (70%)
so how much do you wish for your paid service 
make it above 60% on 1000 plays, not 79 and then come back  |
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oddsbuster |
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#12 Posted: 12/12/2011 5:12:20 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by KScapping:
It is the lazy man’s
excuse to say “he turned the ball over 4 times.
No one can predict that”. The
worst thing you can ever do in accomplishing a worthwhile goal is to put the
blame on something outside of your control.
Go back and post cap that game the the QB turned the ball over 4 times
until you find ONE way you could have seen the potential of what happened on the
field.
Post #16 in this below thread...
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101205610
Post #50 in this thread below...
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101203097&page=2
 Hey Francis not trying to rain on your parade but you made these kind of statements twice already in your own threads in relation to losing wagers. Practice what you preach my friend... 
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oddsbuster |
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Banned
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#13 Posted: 12/12/2011 5:22:41 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by oddsbuster:
Post #16 in this below thread...
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101205610
Post #50 in this thread below...
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101203097&page=2
 Hey Francis not trying to rain on your parade but you made these kind of statements twice already in your own threads in relation to losing wagers. Practice what you preach my friend... 
Sorry I didn't use an alias to post this like most would but BOL... |
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KScapping |
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#14 Posted: 12/12/2011 6:28:52 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by zsd:
so how much do you wish for your paid service 
make it above 60% on 1000 plays, not 79 and then come back  lol... everything has to be an angle huh? I love the Art of Book play, I enjoy writing, and I get better as I teach what I know.... your mind cannot even comprehend that can it? I feel bad for you my friend, it cannot be very satisfying for you....peace  |
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KScapping |
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#15 Posted: 12/12/2011 6:32:06 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by oddsbuster:
Post #16 in this below thread...
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101205610
Post #50 in this thread below...
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101203097&page=2
 Hey Francis not trying to rain on your parade but you made these kind of statements twice already in your own threads in relation to losing wagers. Practice what you preach my friend... 
fair enough, but tell the whole story.. I committed to a clearly stated 4 day 'make +41% or Bust' challenge.... went into the last 2 games up only 16 units @ 62% and clearly stated that I had to chase because it was Succeed or fail for that challenge |
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KScapping |
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#16 Posted: 12/12/2011 6:38:24 AM I am a really positive guy, and always have been. I rarely need anything to 'feel good about'... but when I, or anyone else who tries to share knowledge/experience asking nothing in return, and it is met with conflict, disdain, and hate... it really, really makes me appreciate who I am and was raised to be. If it makes your inner torment subside for a minute while you throw stones at me...have at it.... I wish you nothing but the best |
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oddsbuster |
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#17 Posted: 12/12/2011 6:39:57 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by KScapping:
fair enough, but tell the whole story.. I committed to a clearly stated 4 day 'make +41% or Bust' challenge.... went into the last 2 games up only 16 units @ 62% and clearly stated that I had to chase because it was Succeed or fail for that challenge I'm not in to story telling. I leave that up to you... |
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madh4ttr |
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#18 Posted: 12/12/2011 9:04:10 AM You will not stay at a 65-70% winning percentage, it just cant be done long term. Guess you havent been betting very long if you think you can. I used to think the same thing  |
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RebelTell2 |
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#19 Posted: 12/12/2011 9:18:42 AM Thanks, man...maybe you should consider a self -help book for gamblers. You make some really good points.
RT2
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bikemcr |
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#20 Posted: 12/12/2011 9:39:01 AM Thanks for posting and hope you continue to do so . Like I said in an earlier post you are the real deal . Keep ignoring the haters . |
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LONG-TU |
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#21 Posted: 12/12/2011 9:46:00 AM  |
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Streakybettor |
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#22 Posted: 12/12/2011 9:47:04 AM Your doing very well, please keep it up. I like posters who give a rational to their plays as you do....dont waste your time listening to naysayers, theirs some games tonight to cap.  |
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iSTATUS |
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#23 Posted: 12/12/2011 10:00:06 AM Been doing good KS....what is your lean tonite? |
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shababa |
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#24 Posted: 12/12/2011 10:19:02 AM KScapping, longtime "viewer" here as you can see I don't post much mainly because I don't feel the need to. I like to come into threads and get "good" information and take it for what it's worth. I applaud your insight and effort so far and want to wish you the best on your endeavour of reaching over 58%!!!!! The best motivator is for someone to tell you "you can't" do something. Your angle on capping games is dead on and like the way you think, couldn't have said it better myself, LOL..... |
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roberob2u |
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#25 Posted: 12/12/2011 10:36:55 AM ks... look i have been on this wonderful site for several yrs now.. all i know is i dont write alot but in your case i will. as i read the forum everyday i find it quite interesting how people want to drag people down. IMO... i think you can hit for that 60ish percentage... i dont post my plays but i do very well... 1 reason is because of the forum... all i do is find the right people to fade... i usually check out the guys on here that do their homework and give us good information.... every1 knows who i am talkin about... keep up the good work and i do think u know whats going on.. good luck. |
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