2) Have no genuine background in statistics. 95% of the logic posted in the mains for taking any side is so full of claims about trends.
Almost all of these so-called trends have no statistical significance at all. It's annoying to read rationalization over and over, but its nice to know there are many out there that have no clue, and you therefore have a good chance at making a profit.
2) Have no genuine background in statistics. 95% of the logic posted in the mains for taking any side is so full of claims about trends.
Almost all of these so-called trends have no statistical significance at all. It's annoying to read rationalization over and over, but its nice to know there are many out there that have no clue, and you therefore have a good chance at making a profit.
I'm glad you brought this up. I know its hard to think otherwise, because what you say makes sense. But I disagree. the things you pick up during the games that do not show up in the box score are also very prevelant in the minds of other players and the linesmakers. So I say that the end result is an overreaction to the news or observation.
Perfect example... there are at least 3-5 games a week in the NBA in which an all star player is going to sit a game due to injury, etc. The line jumps or falls a few points. MOST bettors instantly overreact to fade the team losing their all star. If you take the other side in this situation, you will win 65% or better.
Bottom line is any information you have gleaned from watching is baked in the number, probably 200% which makes that knowledge more of a detriment to capping. The other players and linesmakers are watching the games as well.
I'm glad you brought this up. I know its hard to think otherwise, because what you say makes sense. But I disagree. the things you pick up during the games that do not show up in the box score are also very prevelant in the minds of other players and the linesmakers. So I say that the end result is an overreaction to the news or observation.
Perfect example... there are at least 3-5 games a week in the NBA in which an all star player is going to sit a game due to injury, etc. The line jumps or falls a few points. MOST bettors instantly overreact to fade the team losing their all star. If you take the other side in this situation, you will win 65% or better.
Bottom line is any information you have gleaned from watching is baked in the number, probably 200% which makes that knowledge more of a detriment to capping. The other players and linesmakers are watching the games as well.
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