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Week 10 Plays

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Posted: #1
College Record (40-23)  63.5%
NFL Record (12-7)  63.1%
Overall (52-30)  63.4%
 
Arizona +2.5     62%
 
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Posted: #2
SD State  +4   59.6%
 
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Posted: #3
Central Florida  -13.5   58.3%
 
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Posted: #4
Unloading on your picks big this weekend Neural, I need a boost.  Just curious, do you adjust your picks for real-world situations that computers can't analyze?

For example, if it picked a team to cover a certain spread at 60%, but then that team's starting QB got hurt, how would you adjust?  Obviously the #s don't take into account injuries, right?  Also, what if a team has been playing without a lot of key starters for several weeks, and now they are getting them back - wouldn't they be underrated?

I ask because I am wondering if the fire situation is affecting SDSU.  I don't know if they would benefit from a week of rest/a week more to prepare or whether they will be out of shape and sloppy without being able to practice live for so long.

Also, how do bye weeks factor into the equation, if at all?

I'm bringing all this up, because as incredible as this system has been, couldn't it potentially get even more accurate if you include more data inputs?
 
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Posted: #5
BTW, off topic but I just got a final round interview for McKinsey's SF office - got any advice?  First round was pretty much a breeze, but I think the second round is going to be a lot different/tougher.
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by California_Kid:

Unloading on your picks big this weekend Neural, I need a boost.  Just curious, do you adjust your picks for real-world situations that computers can't analyze?

For example, if it picked a team to cover a certain spread at 60%, but then that team's starting QB got hurt, how would you adjust?  Obviously the #s don't take into account injuries, right?  Also, what if a team has been playing without a lot of key starters for several weeks, and now they are getting them back - wouldn't they be underrated?

I ask because I am wondering if the fire situation is affecting SDSU.  I don't know if they would benefit from a week of rest/a week more to prepare or whether they will be out of shape and sloppy without being able to practice live for so long.

Also, how do bye weeks factor into the equation, if at all?

I'm bringing all this up, because as incredible as this system has been, couldn't it potentially get even more accurate if you include more data inputs?

Great points. I get off of games based on the injury report and I also look at who has been playing to generate the stats I input. I don't factor in bye weeks at this time. I am mostly relying on stats that are fed as inputs, but you are correct that some things I canot relay to the NN in the form of a number. That's where I must use my judgement.

On a side note, if you are in the 3rd interview, you are almost assured a position. Good luck my friend!

 
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Posted: #7
 
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Posted: #8
like it so far
 
gip
 
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Posted: #10


Like 'Zona
 
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Posted: #11
These the only 3 that you're on for the week, or have you just not run the numbers for the rest?
 
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Posted: #12
I am with you on UCF, Smith is the nation's leading rusher, should have a huge day against Marshall, UCF plays lights out at home in the new stadium.  Also playing Toledo, their QB his healthy again and they are putting up points in bunches, EMU's QB is questionable and the BU is a freshman.
 
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Posted: #13
IS THIS UR COMPUTER SYSTEM?  HOW DO U GET UR NUMBERS.
 
I USE ACCUSCORE AND ARI +2.5 IS AT 49%/ UCLA 51%
 
13 PT DIFF IS HUGE FOR HANDICAPPING
 
THEY R STILL UPDATING SYSTEM, WILL CHECK UR OTHER PICKS WHEN THEY COME IN
 
HERE R THE BEST COMPUTER PICKS BY THE #
1) MIA - 11 60.4%
2) MIZZO -3.5 59.8%
3) GA TECH -2.5 59.7%
4) WASH/STAN UNDER 57.5 63.3%
5) NEV/NM ST UNDER 67.5 64.1%  HITTING THIS PLAY BIG!!!!!!
6) UCLA/ARI OVER 49.5 62.5%
 
DOES UR SYSTEM DO TOTALS AND IF SO CAN U CHECK THEM AGAINST WHAT I HAVE
 
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Posted: #14
Honestly, don't you think if you could win >53% of games with accustat or sagarin rating differentials, then vegas would be broke by now?
 
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Posted: #15
HOW DO U THINK LINES R DEVELOPED.  ITS NOT WRITTEN IN STONE EITHER. ANY GIVEN DAY, ANY TEAM CAN WIN, THIS SEASON HAS PROVEN THAT MORE THAN ANY.  APP. ST, STANFORD AND N DAKOTA ST.  BUT MATH IS THE BACKBONE OF EVERYTHING IN LIFE, INCLUDING POINT SPREADS.  LINES MAKERS HAVE IT DOWN TO AN ART, KIND OF FUNNY HOW THEIR SO ON THE MONEY ON PUSHES, WHICH U WILL SEE MORE AS THE SEASON PROGRESSES.  AND VEGAS MAKES MONEY ON THE JUICE AND STUPID DRUNK FUCKS PLAYING THEIR HOME-TOWN TEAM.  NOT LOOKING AT LINE-UPS, TRENDS, STATS AND %.  THIS IS JUST ANOTHER TOOL.  A PROFITABLE SEASON IS KNOWING WHEN TO PRESS A PLAY OR MONEY MANAGEMENT DURING THE HARD HITS.  WE R STILL GAMBLING HERE, I WOULD RATHER HAVE EXTRA INFO THAN LESS. GL... OH, WENT 2-1 ON TUES, 2-1 ON WED WITH ONE PENDING THAT LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR COVERING.  IT ALSO CHANGED MY PLAY ON MNF. I LIKED THE OVER AND IT HAD A HIGH % GOING UNDER. 
 
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Posted: #16
i like mizzou even though it's a public play, it's kind of odd -_-
 
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Posted: #17
GL this weekend
 
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Alabama  +7    57.8%
 
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Posted: #19
 Thanks for the info... Interesting..  I liked all 4 and this only helps confirm my cap..
 
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Posted: #20
Neural, I have decided to bet the rest of what I owe on my student loans on one of your plays. It's a shit load of money and if I lose I cannot afford to cover it. So I really need to know which one of your plays is going to win this week. If I lose then I will have no choice but to file bankruptcy.




 
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Posted: #21
******SD State  +4   59.6%******
 
CANCEL CANCEL CANCEL
 
Input error where I included Portland State among SDSU victories. They are DII school and game threw off neural networks results. My fault.......
 
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Posted: #22

Quote Originally Posted by Ball_Picker:

Neural, I have decided to bet the rest of what I owe on my student loans on one of your plays. It's a shit load of money and if I lose I cannot afford to cover it. So I really need to know which one of your plays is going to win this week. If I lose then I will have no choice but to file bankruptcy.



You are making a terrible mistake my friend and will lose your whole bankroll. Do not do that...I am begging you. There are no guarantees of success this or any weekend.

 
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Posted: #23
Oregon  -7  -120    60.5%
 
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Posted: #24
WHY WOULD U EVEN THINK THAT WAY... GO BACK TO SCHOOL AND PAY ATTENTION THIS TIME... GET UR SHIT TOGETHER AND IF U DO DO IT AND LOSE DONT FILE JUST FIND A VERY TALL BRIDGE AND JUMP. 
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by NumNutz74:

WHY WOULD U EVEN THINK THAT WAY... GO BACK TO SCHOOL AND PAY ATTENTION THIS TIME... GET UR SHIT TOGETHER AND IF U DO DO IT AND LOSE DONT FILE JUST FIND A VERY TALL BRIDGE AND JUMP. 

I told the guy not to put his bankroll on any play. Who are you writing to anyway?

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