Week Five

I need wins in a bad way.  Started 13-2 and am now 15-17.  To go 2-15 hurts the pockets in a big way.  But I'm a degenerate gambler like the rest of you, so here I am with my leans.

Boise State -10.5 vs S Miss
Smurf Turf + a great running game + a great defense = COVER

Arkansas State -4 vs Memphis
Memphis got crushed by Central Florida and Ark St played tough against Texas and almost covered against Tennessee.  Ark State also has covered 4 of the last 5 against Memphis.  Home game + Arnold and the 184 rushing avg + Memphis not being able to stop the run (ranked 111th) = COVER

Temple +5.5 vs Army
Temple can win this game.  If they are able to cut down on simple mistakes and pass the ball effectively, they may take this one from an Army team that has struggled on the offensive side, throwing 6 picks to 1 TD.

LSU -39.5 vs Tulane
The Green Wave will become a mossy pond when LSU comes to town.  LSU will pounce on them early which is why I may take the 1st half cover, but since both Flynn and Perrilloux seem to outdoing each other, 40 may not be all that much to deal with in the end. Score should be 63 - 3 or something to that effect.

Michigan -17 vs Northwestern
Last week I went against NW and it paid off.  I'm riding with the "no mistakes allowed" Michigan squad that wants to impress their position in the BCS by crushing the spread.  I think they do so against a division bottom feeder who might be without their starting RB Sutton.  They will get a heavy dose of Mike Hart who will move to 2nd on the schools all time rushing list and whether it's Chad Henne or Ryan Mallett out there, Michigan should have their way against NW.

Hawaii -25.5 vs Idaho
Colt Brennen comes back to an offense that is formulated to score score score.  Idaho has no chance in this one.  Although it is inland, I think they may start sluggish, but finish strong 49-13.

Vandy -20.5 vs E Michigan
Vanderbilt held Mississippi to 54 rushing yards while running for 183.  WR Earl Bennett will not be denied in this one.

There will be more leans later
Good Luck To Everyone

Thanks P4P, for your opinion and the picture

what are some of your picks?

Do you think Idaho will score more than 21?  If so, will Hawaii score enough to cover or will the ankle slow down Colt just enough?

Arkansas State -4.5 vs Memphis
I should a taken them at -3.5 when I had the chance, but eating an extra point wont make me fat, so I'll wager a unit on it.  I love the home team here against Memphis who plays their second game out of three within eleven days.

Clemson -3 vs Georgia Tech
I'll wager a unit and ride with Davis and Spiller.  The two running backs are incredible together.  I think they're on the same level as the Slaton / Divine tandem.  To have two very effective - game changing - defensive breaking RBs and a strong passing attack means everything in a well - coached atmosphere.  Clemson smells a bowl and with a win, they inch closer to being at the top of the ACC.  Both defenses are playing well and this game should be an under play, but for now I'll stick with Clemson who has covered 7 of the last 10 meetings and the last 4 at Georgia Tech.

2 units on both

LSU -21 1st half vs Tulane
1 unit on LSU at the half -whatever.  My book will offer it tomorrow sometime and I'm guessing it'll be between 21 and 23.  I love it.  3 units on the 1st half.  Size matters, especially when that smichagize comes with talent, speed and agility.  LSU defense & special teams score twice.  64 - 6

Michigan -17 vs Northwestern
I like Michigan with the momentum they have after losing their first two games.  They CANNOT lose another and they CANNOT afford to give soft efforts in their quest to maintain and solidify a bowl invite.  It is still possible, but they must crush the weak and beat the strong.  NW is inbetween, but no way are they the NW of the last two years.  Michigan rolls by 25 - 30 points.

Vandy -20.5 vs E Michigan
Vanderbilt should control this game from the beginning.  The Eagles gave up 434 total yards and 28 first downs to Howard!!! Granted only 15 points were scored but still.  Vandy is well rested and after beating Mississippi, they are riding high and should pounce on this team.  They are good, they are at home, they are well rested and they are going to win.  Should be by 25 - 30 or so:  43 - 17

Boise State -10.5 vs S Miss
They are very good on the Smurf Turf.  I know they are not the same squad of the past, but they put up good numbers and their D is great in front of the home crowd.  40 - 19

Temple +5.5 vs Army
I have a good feeling that Temple will win this game.  I'm wagering 1 unit on Temple to win the game and 1 unit on Temple plus the points.  They have been getting better as the season progresses and they can march the ball down the field, but they must cut down on turnovers and miscues if they want to win.  I think they do just that.  28 - 17

Ohio State -13 (or whatever the number may be) 1st half vs Minnesota
OSU will come out strong as they have all year.  Minnesota is an inferior team that lost to Florida Atlantic and struggled against Miami OH and lost to Bowling Green.  I dont need to say that OSU has dominated their opponents nor do I need to say that they have covered 8 of the last 10 matchups with Minn.  I could leave out the fact that OSU's defense will not allow a Minn score in the first half, but I wont because that is my wager.  OSU will cover the first half no matter what.  I am wagering 5 units on this pick (my largest so far) which will get me out of my slump.  Just check out Minnesota's first half scoring.  Their scoring comes in the second half.  I am also wagering 3 units on OSU to cover -24.

BOL EVERYONE

WVU / USF Under 28 1st Half
1 unit on two great defenses against two offenses that will take some time to get going.  I think the total might go over, but that should be mostly done in the second half.  Last year neither team scored in the first quarter.  28 seems high and I think USF will try and play a slower paced game because they know they will not win in a shootout.  No turnovers in this game.  It'll be like a chess match for field position early on.  But then pound the second half to go over.

Kentucky -13 (or whatever #) 1st Half vs FLATL
North Texass had 29 first downs and 466 yards against Florida Atlantic and now they face a potent offense at Kentucky.  Woodson has been terrific this year and will be a top QB pick in the NFL draft next year.  He has 50 TDs to 14 picks with 11 TDs and no picks this year so far.  He runs this offense very smoothly and there is no way FLATL will be in this contest.  Kentucky jumps out quick and easy in the 1st half.  1 unit on the wager.

Well, my funds are very low right now and I should be back on top of things after this weekend.  I will not wager on NFL and strickly pick NCAA from here on out.  Once again I was 13-2 to start the season and went on a 2-15 slump... ouch

Overall (including yesterday's picks) I'm 16-18
With 5 units on OSU, I should be sittin pretty for next weekends plays.

GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE

Some stats for my OSU pick 1st half:

Minnesota has struggled this year in the first half.  They have scored 31 points while giving up 89.  Florida Atlantic scored 35 first half points on them and they were unable to put up anything against Bowling Green.  Their D is soft while OSU's D is suffocating.  The end score may be 58 - 16.  I dont think Minnesota scores until the 3 quarter.

I guess I'll get no feedback.  lol.  oh well, I guess this is just for me to track my thoughts and picks.  Anyway, adding one more.  Last one cause my funds is runnin loooow.

Central Michigan / Northern Illinois Over 59
Everyone is on Central Michigan and for good reason.  All the trends point towards a home victory, but there are some trends that are making me stay away from picking a side.  Northern Illinois has covered against CM 8 of the last 10 times and they do have a pretty good offense.  In fact both teams can score TDs, but both defenses have much to work on.  CM is allowing over 500 yards a game and are ranked 156th overall... WHEW!!!  NI is allowing 421 yards a game and ranks 108th.  CM allows 41 points while NI lets opponents score around 27.  I feel that the O/U is set too low.  Both teams should go easily into the 30s.

Thoughts would be appreciated, but noone seems to post on my threads.  It's ok though, I like talkin to myself

Central Michigan gave up 436 yards to North Dakota State in a blowout.  This is the main reason why I cannot back CM to cover.  Just know that they'll give up mad points.

looks like another unproductive day.  2-5 right now and counting a 6th loss soon.  My half time and second half bets have been working although I didn't post two of them.  My LSU 1st half bet wasn't offered so I didn't lose money on that one, but since I posted it, I'll count it as a loss. 

Anyway, I'll add just to catch up with my losses:

I really love this Ohio State game and I'm adding Ohio State -6.5 for the 1st Q.  I'll wager just one more unit on it which now makes 9 total units on OSU!!!! WOW!!!! I really hope they pull this one off for me.

5-6 for week 5 to bring the overall total to 20-23