Underdog Money Lines Week 5 (9/27-9/29)

Question

Week 4 Record: 2-4  Week 4 Units: -0.70&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Season Record: 4-9 &#xD;&#xA;Season Units: -1.20Had a shitty week, got screwed by NT, 3 picks and two blocked punts, but you can&#x27;t win em all.  Both NT and CSU led at the half and headed to the 4Q, but oh well.  Toledo was just as lucky in going my direction though.  I hope everyone sees the value of this approach.  I barely lost anything even though the only two that cashed were the mini dogs of less than 2:1.  12 dogs came through this week which is about right once we enter conference play.  Left UConn off which sucked and thought about a late add of UNLV which also sucked, but chose not to go with UNC, ND, UW, and a couple other good decisions like Iowa and Oregon State.  Never really was seriously considering Kentucky, Okie State, or Syracuse.  All the rest were micro dogs, UVA, Akron, Michigan, NIU, and SJSU.Lookout list: USM, USF, Duke, UNC, Akron, Miss State, Army/Temple, AF, Buffalo, CMU/NIU, MiaOH, Cal/Oregon, UCLA/OSU, Illinois, KSU, UNLV, SMU/UTEP, CSU, Toledo, Colorado, Baylor, ECU, UAB, New Mexico, WSU, ULL, FIU, ULM, and Memphis.

The Garfather · Answer

Week 4 Record: 2-4  Week 4 Units: -0.70&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Season Record: 4-9 &#xD;&#xA;Season Units: -1.20Had a shitty week, got screwed by NT, 3 picks and two blocked punts, but you can&#x27;t win em all.  Both NT and CSU led at the half and headed to the 4Q, but oh well.  Toledo was just as lucky in going my direction though.  I hope everyone sees the value of this approach.  I barely lost anything even though the only two that cashed were the mini dogs of less than 2:1.  12 dogs came through this week which is about right once we enter conference play.  Left UConn off which sucked and thought about a late add of UNLV which also sucked, but chose not to go with UNC, ND, UW, and a couple other good decisions like Iowa and Oregon State.  Never really was seriously considering Kentucky, Okie State, or Syracuse.  All the rest were micro dogs, UVA, Akron, Michigan, NIU, and SJSU.Lookout list: USM, USF, Duke, UNC, Akron, Miss State, Army/Temple, AF, Buffalo, CMU/NIU, MiaOH, Cal/Oregon, UCLA/OSU, Illinois, KSU, UNLV, SMU/UTEP, CSU, Toledo, Colorado, Baylor, ECU, UAB, New Mexico, WSU, ULL, FIU, ULM, and Memphis.

The Garfather · Answer

Assuming ML value roughly correlates to line value in some way, shape, or form I am already removing these...USF, AF, NIU, MiaOh, Illinois, UTEP, and WSU.

jp1lsu · Answer

I&#x27;m most likely going to play USF, ILL, and AF myself.  I just happen to be on that side of those games right now.

jp1lsu · Answer

Do you know who will start for Navy?  I see they brought the backup in yesterday.  Part of my fading of Navy most of this year was based on the play at QB.  If the backup is the starter now I may back off AFA

WahooS · Answer

Colorado State wins in a shocker this week @ TCU

The Garfather · Answer

EB, did you take 11 money lines last week? If so, you're more of a high volume bettor than Matador. LOL

jp, none of those have enough value for me, but I wouldn't necessarily disagree with any of those sides from a pure matchup standpoint. Maybe I would disagree on USF a little, but that should be a physical game. Second game in a row Navy has gotten some use of the 2nd stringer so I need to read up on that.

Wahoo, a little tough to envision the outright victory due to their defense, but the flip-side to that is that the Frogs cannot score. Maybe you're onto something.

The Garfather · Answer

Long season.  Don&#x27;t sweat it.  If you&#x27;re down five units in early January then that&#x27;s more of a problem.

Matador · Answer

Gotta say, USM looks like a play. Do you think the 10.5 holds up?

lindetrain · Answer

The disrespect for Temple is getting ridiculous.  Once again last week they were way undervalued, and were tied at halftime before getting down a couple scores in the 2nd half...now they&#x27;re catching a TD to a team they&#x27;re arguably more talented than?&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;You know the Owls are ready to get that first win...they have been so much more competitive this year.  What was Army&#x27;s best performance, other than last week when they hung with a BC team who was disinterested in the game?  Their 14-7 win over Rhode Island?

The Garfather · Answer

I haven&#x27;t looked at the USM game yet.  I would tend to think that it might hold up though.  Blue-Turf factor and all.  I think that favorite takes money on Thursday night even if not before.What do you think about Friday&#x27;s game, specifically the movement?  Are people gonna take USF thinking they&#x27;re smart?

nostradamus12 · Answer

Boise St was at 11.5 on the greek, then 10.5 and now 10

Matador · Answer

USF line won&#x27;t move much, just because it doesn&#x27;t have far to go. Yes, a lot of people will be on USF, kind of like the game @ Auburn. Certain teams the books (or the public) are on to, and USF is one of them.More disturbing to me is that the same trend applies to some other teams I was hoping to get better value on, specifically Oregon and Illinois. May be the right side, but how the hell you going to play it with lines like that?

Matador · Answer

Add New Mexico and CSU to that list. Same thing happened to me last week. Line movement generally went against me but I thought the movement made sense and took most of the games anyway, then lost most.

LeRinkRat · Answer

Gar,&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;I will be interested to see the lines on Michigan State, Colorado State AND "The Baylor By God Baptist Bears". ANY decent $$$ I will fade the Aggies.

Blakejeff · Answer

You DEFINATELY need to consider Temple this week....their close to a win and Army&#x27;s not that good.....The Owls will be a good pick.

Ball_Picker · Answer

I need to start getting in on these discussions. I think that this week presents us with quite a few ML possibilities, meaning more seem to have stuck out this week compared to weeks 1 - week 4.

Here is what I have them narrowed down to: -- (Dog obviously listed first)

Akron over UConn

Air Force over Navy

Buffalo over Ball St

Alabama over Florida St

Colorado St over TCU

Baylor over AM (huge line)

East Carolina over Houston

Maryland over Rutgers

LaTech over Fresno St

lindetrain · Answer

Buffalo is looking like a great spread play at the least...

Ball_Picker · Answer

I am kind of liking Maryland. They are coming off of a horrible loss in which they were up 24-3 vs. Wake, at Wake. They blew that lead and lost in OT. They are coming off that and will present Rutgers with some fits since Maryland has a good defense, very big guys up front and are very physical. I know it's a non-conference game but beating Rutgers, who is getting much hype, sure would be a way to make up for their debacle last week vs. Wake. I know Maryland should be able to hold Ray Rice in check and Rutgers will have to leave things up to Teel to win the game with his passing....obviously not Rutger's forte.

Not to mention, I can't wait to see what they release this O / U at. I predict about 42 or so. I see this being a low scoring game.

dmoney41686 · Answer

May I ask why?  It&#x27;s the MAC, Ball St. letdown, Drew Willy has done well are the only real things I can think of.

The Garfather · Answer

Don&#x27;t care for LT or Bama, each of those other ones will get a very close inspection from me.

lindetrain · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;I think you just about hit the nail on the head.&#xD;&#xA;Explain to me how Ball State will be mentally ready for this game.  Put yourself in their shoes: up 9 with under 10 minutes left and the ball, Davis does the one thing you don&#x27;t want to do - throws an INT for a TD.  Then, with a chance to move into FG range near the end of the game, the WR drops a wide-open pass which would&#x27;ve all but sealed it for them.&#xD;&#xA;How do they get prepared for Buffalo knowing they just let their biggest win in school history slip through their fingers?  Add that to the fact they hardly play any defense and they&#x27;re laying 3 scores, and they just really aren&#x27;t that great as favorites, and I think a Bulls ticket looks pretty enticing.

dmoney41686 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by lindetrain]  &#xD;&#xA;I think you just about hit the nail on the head.&#xD;&#xA;Explain to me how Ball State will be mentally ready for this game.  Put yourself in their shoes: up 9 with under 10 minutes left and the ball, Davis does the one thing you don&#x27;t want to do - throws an INT for a TD.  Then, with a chance to move into FG range near the end of the game, the WR drops a wide-open pass which would&#x27;ve all but sealed it for them.&#xD;&#xA;How do they get prepared for Buffalo knowing they just let their biggest win in school history slip through their fingers?  Add that to the fact they hardly play any defense and they&#x27;re laying 3 scores, and they just really aren&#x27;t that great as favorites, and I think a Bulls ticket looks pretty enticing.  [/Quote]Agreed.  I wasn&#x27;t advocating a lay on Ball St., but it just worries me that they can pretty much score at will here if they happen to be ready for this game.

pederson16 · Answer

i think the bama over fsu seems like the best and ive already got money on the spread &#x2B;3 and waiting for mL

dmoney41686 · Answer

lay = play

zcoach99 · Answer

I&#x27;m looking for Pitt to win outright at Virginia.

Underdog Money Lines Week 5 (9/27-9/29)

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