Underdog Money Lines Week 1 (8/30-9/3)

I don't have last year's figures right in front of me, but they weren't near as good as two year's ago in any event.  There were a variety of reasons for this.  The value was down a bit last year as both Pinnacle and Betcris/Bookmaker consistently had lower numbers and perhaps more large $ bettors were giving this strategy a try, I played a little more close to the vest, and most of all I just didn't have as good of a season as I had previously.  I can't do anything about the first issue other than give myself additional sources for lines so I have added thegreek.com and I am considering Matchbook and maybe even fivedimes.com, but more likely I will try them next year.  As for the second issue of playing too tight, I am going to give myself a target number of plays particularly in conference play to make sure than I am taking enough bites at the apple so-to-speak.  As that is the true nature of this method, you never know quite which ones will come in so you have to take something of a shotgun approach, but you don't want that to get out of hand either.  As for the third component that lead to last year's limited success, I have spent as much time in the offseason researching and becoming familiar with different squads and personnel as in any previous season so hopefully that will correct itself.

The numbers aren't out yet obviously, and one is always better served to take the numbers and raw value into consideration rather than handicapping in a presumptuous way and eliminating possible plays before they can develop, but that fact of the matter is that I have been around this block before I can almost start to see plays coming.  So in that regard its not too early to go ahead and put out a prospective list of plays and we can safely eliminate a few of the games involving Sun Belt teams that can't beat their meat let alone a BCS squad.

At this particular point in time the watch list is comprised of teams I could theoretically see winning as opposed to the short list of possibles I will compile when the numbers break out.

Lookout List: MiamiOH, Kent, Utah St, Utah, UL-Monroe, Syracuse, Duke, Wyoming, Memphis, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Wake Forest, Arizona, Army, Central Florida, Oklahoma State, Central Mich, Colorado State, Eastern Michigan, Toledo, Kansas State, Bowling Green, Tennessee, UTEP, SJSU, MTSU, Clemson and SMU.

Cliff's Notes Version:

Official Plays (0):

Prospective Plays (28): see above

I can tell you about half of those teams will be eliminated because I won't like the value and most of the rest could possibly win but really have too many question marks to take a stab at early in the year...and in some cases, even though I think an upset is within the realm of possibility I just flat-out prefer the favorite in that case.  I won't take more than 4 or 5 in all likelihood.  I anticipate taking 4 or so in the first three weeks and then slowly increasing from there.

There are only a couple games where I think the wrong team might be favored, but with further research I may change my mind on that as well.

ML DOGS

Of that list of 28 that I think could win, these are teams I won't touch with a ten foot pole for any number of reasons:

Kent, Syracuse, Memphis, Colorado State, UTEP, and Clemson all fit the bill as being too small to present any real value.  At this current line, I would not expect the correlating ML to be all that juicy.  I will play plenty of small dogs this year, but relative to either my perception of the caliber of this team or the superiority of their foe, I expect that these guys won't be "worth it".  You will note also that a home dog of 3 points often gets less value than a road dog of 3 points, precisely because it is acknowledged by the linesmaker that they are at home.  Hence, most of the home dogs make this category.

Utah St, Duke, Wyoming, Wake Forest, and Tennesse all have some sort of question surrounding their personnel that make me very weary of them right out of the gate.  For the Aggies and Blue Devils I worry about their whole damn team, the Pokes are young and inexperienced in the trenches, Wake loses almost all major pieces from a totally under-appreciated defense, and Tennessee I has issues on several aspects of their team which wouldn't manifest itself against a patsy, but Cal will expose.  If I think I can find a weakness or two of the Volunteers team than you be damn sure Tedford will find it.

UL-Monroe, Central Florida, SJSU, Bowling Green, and SMU I believe are just going to be out-classed by their opponent.  Maybe not by a lot in some cases, but I think there is enough separation there in talent/speed that no matter how much the little engine wants to get up the hill it won't fucking be able to.

Leaving us with these ten to consider pending the value: MiamiOH, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Arizona, Army, Oklahoma State, Eastern Michigan, Toledo, Kansas State, and my boys from Murfreesboro the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders.

Central Michigan and Utah are two that I don't quite have a feel for and didn't make a category for.  I think each one is in over their head in week one on the road against an up and coming program, but each of these two teams has shown enough in the last couple years to demonstrate that they can hang.  I have the Chips and Utes as listed in limbo right now.  If one or both of them make it onto my card it could very well be with the points rather than the ML.

As with last year I will post all of my plays in this thread, but I would like discussion to center around moneylines.  I'm not unwilling to talk about spreads and totals, but there will be lots of places to do that each week and not as many to do this.

Which brings me to one other point: last year I spent too much time in here in the forums and not enough time capping so I will be less inclined to be chatty as the week goes on.  Probably post/talk a bunch on Sun-Tues/Wed and then lay off posting a lot unless I am adding plays.

Week One card to date: FSU -2, South Carolina -28, Iowa -10.5

gar, and everyone else who participates in great discussions, I thank you.  I am for sure reading your guys threads before I place a bet.  Always informative.

I was wondering, and I don't have your previous record handy, did you every consider placing a corresponding spread bet in addition to your ML dog bet.  Obviously a +700 dog may not win that often, only need one out of 7, but how many of those big dogs covered what was sure to be a large spread.

I picked up a couple of great dogs on the spread from reading thru here, and just wondered how many units would have been saved/added if this safety would have been taken.  Obviously you are talking about a different set of probabilities, since payouts are different.  Just something I have always wondered if you all did.

GL on the season, if I have something to add, I will post it.

Training camps are open, NFL's playing preseason games, and Gar's ML Dog thread is up.  It won't be long now!  Thanks for all the work you put in to this thread over the years.

My favorite from your list is SJSU, but then I'm a WAC homer and a fan of Dick Tomey.  Second would be Oklahoma St.

Good to see your ML dog thread back Garfather. 
Well I can't argue with your list of 10 possibles.

I'll for sure be on Georgia Tech and Arizona.  Also leaning towards Army.  Those might be my only 3.  I'll be starting off lightly again this year for the 1st few weeks.

Here's to a great season.

is redbearde still a member?  i liked his breakdowns in these threads as well...

Glad to see this up and running so early.. i knew you couldn't hold out much longer.

vols, tell me more about Memphis if you would.

The best thread on covers, year-in year-out.

Look forward to your insight, Gar, and will contribute as I can..