Posted:
#1
I know it is not easy for forecasters to predict weather 72 hours in advance, but it is looking like a ton of rain and wind for the P12 Championship game in Palo Alto.
They are calling for rain tonight and tomorrow, followed by a brief respite, then a ton of rain Friday day through Sunday.
Stanford Stadium is natural grass, and was rebuilt in 2006. It probably has good drainage, but with two storms back to back I expect the field to be very soggy.
They are also calling for 20MPH winds.
How does this impact the game?
On the one hand, it means a low scoring game. 5 Dimes has the total at 46 right now. According to Covers line moves, many books opened at 52 or so. If the weather is really bad (driving rain + 25 MPH gusty winds), the game could easily be a lot lower scoring than 46 (remember the Bears/Houston NFL game?)
The lower scoring the game is,. the more valuable points become, so that favors UCLA getting the 8.5 points.
But in terms of winning the game, the bad weather likely favors Stanford for the following reasons.
1) They have the opportunity to practise in bad weather this week if they choose to. Some teams would choose not to, and practise indoors. They also should be able to figure out what cleats they need to use.
2) UCLA is a "softer", more finesse team, that is not used to bad weather, since they are from sunny Southern CA.
3) Stanford is known for being a physical team. The bad weather favors physcial teams over fast teams, since a fast team won't be able to get outside on run plays.
4) A game like this usually comes down to fewest mistakes. Stanford is likely the more disciplined team. Stanford lost 8 fumbles on the year compared to 14 lost fumbles for UCLA. Both teams threw 10 Ints. Stanford has lost 5 fumbles the last 3 games though. UCLA has almost twice the penalty yardage of Stanford.
Both teams have good RBs that can run between the tackles. Both teams have TEs you can throw an "up for grabs" ball too. Both QBs are big guys, who should be able to grip a wet ball. The UCLA QB is from Arizona, and the STanford QB from Virginia, so the Stanford's QB is probably a little more used to playing in weather.
Like I said, the game is 72 hours away, and the weather is not that predictable, but it is something we need to keep an eye on.
If UCLA completely folds, then the 8.5 points may not be enough if Stanford can capitalize on some short fields for a couple easy TDs. I think the under 46 is worth a look, and so is Stanford ML. If the spread drops below 7, then that would make Stanford a play for me. I am going to monitor the line and the weather reports, because it is easy to get burned when you bet a game based on a weather forecast.
0
nice write up
. GOOD STUFF THORPE 
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