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Author: [College Football] Topic: NCAA Football Wk 12
jdnmoney send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#1
Posted: 11/12/2012 12:19:01 AM
LAST WEEK RECORD:      7-6           (53.84%)
YTD SEASON RECORD:    84-61-2     (57.94%)              
YTD SIDES RECORD:        46-33-2     (58.23%)

YTD O/U RECORD:            38-28        (57.58%)  

YTD FUTURES RECORD:   0-0-0       UPDATED AFTER wk 15
MONSTER PLAYS YTD:   8-2        (80.00%) 
YTD units:                                   +42.44     

Units Last Week:                          -0.8u         

previous thread:

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101465759&page=1



Pending Futures Wagers

Utep UNDER 4.5 (-130)     (Currently 2-8) WINNER
Idaho UNDER 4.5 (-170)    (Currently 1-9) WINNER
Army UNDER 5.5 (-110)    (Currently 2-8) WINNER

Ohio UNDER 9.5 (+130)    (Currently 8-2)
UNLV UNDER 4.5 (-195)    (Currently 2-9) WINNER
Duke  OVER 3.5 (-190)     (Currently 6-4)  WINNER



futures thread:
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101375357
POST #10
 


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#2
Posted: 11/12/2012 12:19:09 AM
WEEK 11 Recap
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kent St -5
Marshall -2          
New Mexico pk
la tech vs Texas st over 70.5
navy vs Troy over 58.5
ball state vs Toledo over 67.5
Ohio over 10 1h
Louisville vs Syracuse over 58
FAU +16.5
Boise st vs Hawaii under 53
Oregon Team total over 47

adding miss st + 7 2h
BYU vs Idaho over 51
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#3
Posted: 11/12/2012 12:21:41 AM
Looking forward to this week JD. Best of luck 
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#4
Posted: 11/12/2012 12:28:16 AM
Took it on the chin so to say with the monster play falling short. will talk more about last week later on by as of now...



Wk 12 Plays (Locked In)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
La Tech +3
Kent St +3
Colorado State +30
Duke +13
Ball St -3
FAU +1
Utep -3.5
Wake Forest +24
Syracuse +5


  MAMMOUTH SIZED TEASER 

  • KENT STATE +13
  • LA TECH +13
  • COLORADO STATE +43

HUGE MONSTER PLAY 10 POINT TEASER - 5.2 units to win 4 units 














Waiting on (Leans)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Marshall vs Houston OVER (77 or lower)
Toledo vs NIU OVER   (70 or lower)
UCF vs Tulsa UNDER (64 or higher)
Oregon Team Total OVER (41 or lower, 38 or lower will be a MONSTER PLAY)
Texas State vs Navy OVER (66 or less)
ECU vs Tulane OVER (65 or less)
Hawaii Team Total UNDER (16 or more)

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#5
Posted: 11/12/2012 12:47:17 AM
usually tail a couple
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#6
Posted: 11/12/2012 12:53:30 AM
Why cuse
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#7
Posted: 11/12/2012 1:37:34 AM

jdn, watch out for that Hawaii team total.  Different QB finally was put in last week.  Schroeder has been the BIGGEST problem for Hawaii this year with the HC being stubborn.  QB has caused the defense to look incredibly bad with horrible TOs.  New QB Higgins looks promising but is young so...who knows.  Just be careful bro.

Anyways, keep up the good work.  Tough week last weeek.  Was with you on Marshall.  Read that Cato's hand may be bothering him since two weeks ago?  could have contributed to their piss poor performance.

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#8
Posted: 11/12/2012 1:40:43 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:

Why cuse



Syracuse is motivated to win out and go to a bowl game. they have a driven, senior led QB (Nassib) who is playing very well right now.

I saw that O-Line manhandle and dominate louisville's D line and i expect missouri to get worked in the trenches. Missouri will probably put up some points in this game, but i think syracuse will be able to control the tempo, the clock, and should be able to get key 1st downs when necessary.


38-34 someone wins.
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#9
Posted: 11/12/2012 1:44:55 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by naesiy:

jdn, watch out for that Hawaii team total.  Different QB finally was put in last week.  Schroeder has been the BIGGEST problem for Hawaii this year with the HC being stubborn.  QB has caused the defense to look incredibly bad with horrible TOs.  New QB Higgins looks promising but is young so...who knows.  Just be careful bro.

Anyways, keep up the good work.  Tough week last weeek.  Was with you on Marshall.  Read that Cato's hand may be bothering him since two weeks ago?  could have contributed to their piss poor performance.



its going to be so incredibly girl cold at AF on friday night,

those cold blooded air force dudes are gonna be running around without shirts on , eating ice cream cones on the sidelines and hawaii's dudes are gonna be freezing thier fools off, wishing they would have stayed on the island.

girl cold can effect teams greatly,

Look at Idaho on saturday. as soon as they started seein their own breath, they knew they were in trouble. AF will (*should) whoop this team every which way,

the way i see it, hawaii got virtually shut out by boise at home...

their two TDs were

100 yd kickoff return
TD run with 5 minutes left down 49-7 before the TD.

their offense is in shambles, i just hope vegas gives up 16...hawaii might not score 6,
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#10
Posted: 11/12/2012 1:52:50 AM
Hawaii avg. 15.5 PPG in their 8 games vs D-1A opponents this year, and if you break it down even further,


out of their 12 games,  the teams they will play or have played with the better defenses this year (USC, BYU, SD St, Fresno, Boise, AF)

Hawaii has scored 48 total points in the 5 games before AF featuring decent defenses. 9.6 ppg.


hawaii scored TD vs USC down 35-0
Shut out vs BYU
scored 2 TD's vs San Diego State while it was somewhat close
Scored with 3 minutes left vs Fresno down 45-3 before the score
i already explained Boise.


AF will destroy this team. AF knows if they want to play in a bowl game this will be a game that they have to win, and i expect them to do so in convincing fashion.


this could be 49-13, it could be 28-6. either way, i cannot see hawaii scoring very much. just hope its 16.5 or higher.

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#11
Posted: 11/12/2012 1:55:42 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jdnmoney:




Syracuse is motivated to win out and go to a bowl game. they have a driven, senior led QB (Nassib) who is playing very well right now.

I saw that O-Line manhandle and dominate louisville's D line and i expect missouri to get worked in the trenches. Missouri will probably put up some points in this game, but i think syracuse will be able to control the tempo, the clock, and should be able to get key 1st downs when necessary.


38-34 someone wins.


Sheldon Richardson is a playmaker on the Missouri dl. He is tied for first on the team in total tackles with 63, has 9 tackles for loss-of-yards, 4 quarterback sacks and 3 forced-fumbles. They are ranked 22nd overall in rush defense and have played against much better offensive lines than Syracuse.  Missouri likes a fast paced game so I'm not sure that hurts them.
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#12
Posted: 11/12/2012 2:15:40 AM

All valid points JD.  Yup, Hawaii on the road in altitude on a short week, definately think they lose big here.  That being said, they could easily score 17 with a new QB not turning it over. 

Some things to consider from this past Boise game:

Boise's first TD, 18 yard drive for 7.

Second TD a fumble off a muffed punt gave BSU the ball at the UH 14. 

UH's offense sputters while the UH defense is doing a pretty good job of holding the BSU offense...two punts besides the two short field TDs.

Not trying to argue, just tryin to help you out a little.  Again, just be careful.  I think the side is worth more of a look than the TT but UH's defense is not bad.  It's their offense that puts the D in bad spots so if Chow decides to go with a new QB and he provides a spark, this will be a different team completely.   Also, UH's strength is against the pass and they typically can't defend the run but with AFA being one dimensional, they could maybe focus on that?

Is it obvious I'm a Hawaii fan???

GLTU brother!

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#13
Posted: 11/12/2012 5:48:31 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by naesiy:

All valid points JD.  Yup, Hawaii on the road in altitude on a short week, definately think they lose big here.  That being said, they could easily score 17 with a new QB not turning it over. 

Some things to consider from this past Boise game:

Boise's first TD, 18 yard drive for 7.

Second TD a fumble off a muffed punt gave BSU the ball at the UH 14. 

UH's offense sputters while the UH defense is doing a pretty good job of holding the BSU offense...two punts besides the two short field TDs.

Not trying to argue, just tryin to help you out a little.  Again, just be careful.  I think the side is worth more of a look than the TT but UH's defense is not bad.  It's their offense that puts the D in bad spots so if Chow decides to go with a new QB and he provides a spark, this will be a different team completely.   Also, UH's strength is against the pass and they typically can't defend the run but with AFA being one dimensional, they could maybe focus on that?

Is it obvious I'm a Hawaii fan???

GLTU brother!

Once you get use to being BUTT BASHED, you use the KY gel and it's business as usual. Just saying.  BEATDOWN
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#14
Posted: 11/12/2012 9:33:32 AM
Air Force doesn't play much defense. I said it earlier this year, Hawaii's strength is wherever Mike Edwards and Beau Yap are. They are hard to run on between the tackles. Mike Edwards plays corner. If ubcan get a good read on who will be starting at QB for Hawaii, u should be able to figure the game out. Higgins (QB inserted after Shroeder) is young and sparks the offense. He has a faster release and that was the main problem with Shroeder. Shroeder couldn't thread the needle when needed (quick slants, WR screens, and posts). Higgens threw a pick late in the game but they were just desperate at that point, tossing the ball up. I woul say however they did against New Mexico in the first quarter (didn't watch the game), would be how this game goes with Shroeder IN. If Higgens starts, I see more sustained drives which lead to defense getting the rest they need which means possibly keeping it close. If Shroeder starts, I would definitely be fading Hawaii again, at least in first half an first quarter. They have been massively out scored in the first quarter this year. Or put a small bet with +$ odds on Air force scoring first. Lol. Best of luck this week!
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#15
Posted: 11/12/2012 11:49:52 AM
how is colorado state +43 on the teaser if the line is +30
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#16
Posted: 11/12/2012 12:25:41 PM
air force team total could be worth a look, my guess would be around 37, love the over if its that or anything lower
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#17
Posted: 11/12/2012 12:30:23 PM

niu over @ 69

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#18
Posted: 11/12/2012 12:39:12 PM
Correction from post #3


Colorado state is +40 in the teaser

I mistakenly posted 43
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#19
Posted: 11/12/2012 1:53:47 PM

Cuse has been money all year (at home)... They will get a win against Temple on the final week of the season. Not against a Mizzu squad that's playing with a lot more confidence over the last 2 weeks.

My money says Mizzu beats Cuse by 7 or more to get bowl elligible themselves, at home under the primtime lights.

Like La Tech catching 3 at home, though.

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#20
Posted: 11/12/2012 2:01:04 PM
 Lets get it jd!!
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#21
Posted: 11/12/2012 2:52:58 PM
adding

la tech vs Utah state over 68
Texas state vs navy over 58
Ecu vs Tulane over 64
Houston vs Marshall over 75
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#22
Posted: 11/12/2012 3:10:24 PM

Wow -- you got some great numbers.  Navy shoud by 64+, and ECU should be 75+.

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#23
Posted: 11/12/2012 5:55:44 PM
Thanks!  Just got ECU over at 59.5.  
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#24
Posted: 11/12/2012 6:51:05 PM
cannot believe the movement on the ECU game, shocking...


also adding

Western Carolina +61.5
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#25
Posted: 11/13/2012 1:53:47 AM
goooddd luck JD!  nice plays
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