Can anyone give some legit points why LSU covers?

I keep seeing people come in other peoples threads to say LSU will cover without giving any legit reasons. I follow LSU closely and have been to several of their games this year.

Here are my reasons Alabama will cover:

1. - LSU and Mettenberger can't pass the ball- 7 TD's and 4 intereptions (Jefferson and Lee had much better stats last year) So technically last year- LSU's passing game(which everyone said sucked) was superior to this years passing attack- now just sit there and let that sink in for a minute

2. Bama will load up the box and stop the LSU running game- same as last year's Championship game

3. LSU's defense is worse that last year's unit. Still very good but they can be scored on. Last year's defense made it almost impossible to score against.

4. LSU's special teams is worse this year. No Honey Badger to make explosive plays on special teams. Soneone correct me if I am wrong but I don't believe LSU has returned a kick or a punt for a TD this year.

5. Alabama's offense is much better this year. New offensive coordinator has opened up the playbook and A.J. Mcarron has become one of the best QB's in the nation. 18 TD's and 0 interceptions. Hard to argue that point. Alabama's offensive line is just flat out nasty and can run block and pass protect. Alabama has more weapons in the passing game this year and they are running the ball just as good as last year.

6. Alabama's special teams are much better this year.

7. Miles sucks and Saban doesn't. Simple but true. If LSU would ever hire a real offensive guru to be his coordinator then LSU would be very very scary- Petrino anyone?

Yes LSU is a magical place at night but they can't win or cover every single game there. The vanilla play calling and ultimately the lack of a passing game will kill LSU. And let's not forget- LSU's offensive line is banged up big time.

Good luck with whoever you play - I just want to hear reasons other than " the public is all over Bama" as to why anybody thinks that LSU will cover.

Miles is solid off bye weeks when they have extended time to gameplan.  Night game period.  Payback comes to mind and look back to the South Carolina game when we all thought we were screwed.  Bama is good, but LSU will make them look mortal Saturday.  I see LSU covering I am not gonna say winning I think Vegas rakes on this one personally.

no--there ARE none.

ps, unless they knock mccarron out of the game in the first half.

What Bama is doing over the last couple of years is just ridiculous. Their only loss was to a team that many were calling an all timer. Bama hasn't been taken to the 4th quarter since the Auburn game of 2010. That is amazing!

The thing that hurts LSU here besides the lack of good QB play is the lack of playmakers outside. LSU may have some success running the ball between the 20's but it gets much tougher down there and that means FG's.

Besides the fact that the game is on the road and at night there is no reason to think that Bama doesn't win comfortably.

Under 42. Watching your grass grow will be more exciting than this game.

i'm rolling with the under and alabama.

i think the only way LSU covers is if their defense holds bama to like 12 points and its a complete defensive shit show.  which is possible i guess.   but i'll take my chances with the much better offense.  LSU's offense is going to really struggle IMO.

Night game - payback - and Miles off a bye- Those are the only reasons I keep hearing. I believe in my eyes and watching both teams this year, Alabama is superior in all facets of the game. I would love to lose my $$$ and have LSU pull the upset but i do not see that happening. Alabama won't be intimidated playing at Tiger stadium. You can toss payback out of the window- both teams will be ready to play- Alabama knows how good LSU can be. Miles had a long time before the NC game and look what happened. 

The under should be a strong play but I think turnovers could possibly put it over- 

I dont know.  How did Georgia easily beat Florida?  Things happen.  Teams can't play their best every game, especially on the road.  Turnovers could happen.  You keep saying night game, payback, and Miles off a bye are the only things you are hearing but are you maybe downplaying those just a tad bit?

If Bama misses the plane?

AJ McCarron is 1-2 against LSU
AJ has never won in Tiger Stadium
Doug Nussmeier has never coached against a Chavis defense
Bama is 1-3 in Tiger Stadium in the last 10 years. (win in OT)
Bama has played Ark, Mizzou, and Tenn on the road. (88, 24, and 101 respectively on defense)
LSU is 7-3 SU in the last 10
Mett is rated #1 in the nation on 3rd downs between 4-6 yards

DanTos8715- 

les has made crazier things happen

probably tease the UNDER to 48.  I can't for the life of me see how this one goes over that.

LSU has played 3 top 10 teams, Bama zero.


I dont think LSU will win but 10 points is very plausible

If bama's d left the field it would take lsu's offense 3plays 2score!!!

lsufasteddie- 

I honestly believe Mett and Wing read articles about themselves all summer and it went to their heads. I also believe that the shot Mett took in the NT game has been in the back of his mind for quite some time. For someone who has such stone feet this year, I remember the naked bootleg against Ole Miss last year that should have been a 20+ yard TD run. Where is that guy? When he steps up in the pocket he takes 1 step when he should be taken 3 or 4. (talking about when the pocket collapses)

IMHO he can be a game manager, and that's all LSU needs. He's far behind Mauck and Flynn but all they did was manage games and make a few plays here and there. Smart players with average to slight above average talent. I've been to 2 practices and seen him throw the deep ball on a dime over and over, but for whatever reason it's not translating in games. It may be receivers, it may be him. Not sure.

 

 Best stat ever!!!

LSU has a phenomenal Defense. i dont care how good you are, laying double digits on the road against a verry good SEC team rarely is FREE MONEY

Train,
Since third downs have been a premium for LSU it is. Laugh all you want.

The stats that lsufasteddie posted are mostly irrevalent. 

If you bet money according to stats like these, then youll go broke quick.

I posted my reasons above.

Remember this Oklahoma was the lock of the universe on the board last week and I pulled off Notre Dame and I am still pissed.  Bama is GOOD and probably will win LSU has a damn good chance at covering period good luck whatever side you choose.  If I had a gun to my head and had to choose Bama wins LSU covers.