Alabama -10 @ LSU (5 UNITS) - I was expecting a line around 7.5 or 8 and then it comes out 10. Wow! Bama will score some points here. I expect a couple of short fields due to the lack of LSU offense and a turnover or two. Bama will take away the run and force Mettenburger to make some throws. The lack of playmakers outside for LSU is really what hurts them here. Bama has gotten much better up front and that is a problem for a depleted LSU OL. One team is balanced and the other is not. One is getting great QB play and the other is not. The line says it all IMO.
Iowa St +11 v. Oklahoma (2 UNITS) - Going to lock it in now. Iowa State was a 6 point home dog to Kansas State and puched. Now they are an 11 point dog to OU? OU is getting a little too much credit here IMO. I love this Iowa State defense and that should keep them close. OU is coming off a tough loss and you have to wonder how they will respond. I may add more later but the line and situation make it a play at this time.
Texas A&M -7 @ Mississippi St (2 UNITS) - Mullen talked about how the A&M was more important for the program than the Bama game last week but they have to be questioning themselves after getting thrashed. The two losses that A&M has were to Florida and LSU who have MUCH better defenses than what they will face in Starkville. I look for a quick start by the Aggies and MSU won't be able to keep up.
Texas Tech -7 v. Texas (2 UNITS) - Tech has looked pretty good all year except against the best two teams in the Big XII. Texas's defense will struggle to stop the Tech passing game but now the Texas offense is having problems too.
Ole Miss +14 @ Georgia (2 UNITS) - Letdown and facing a team coming off a very important road win. Ole Miss is learning how to win under Hugh Freeze and Georgia was fortunate that Florida just so happened to throw up on themselves more than Georgia did. Great spot to back a road dog!
Looking over more but these plays look pretty good to me!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
YTD 8-4 (+18.6 UNITS)
Last week 6-1 (+16.9 UNITS)
Alabama -10 @ LSU (5 UNITS) - I was expecting a line around 7.5 or 8 and then it comes out 10. Wow! Bama will score some points here. I expect a couple of short fields due to the lack of LSU offense and a turnover or two. Bama will take away the run and force Mettenburger to make some throws. The lack of playmakers outside for LSU is really what hurts them here. Bama has gotten much better up front and that is a problem for a depleted LSU OL. One team is balanced and the other is not. One is getting great QB play and the other is not. The line says it all IMO.
Iowa St +11 v. Oklahoma (2 UNITS) - Going to lock it in now. Iowa State was a 6 point home dog to Kansas State and puched. Now they are an 11 point dog to OU? OU is getting a little too much credit here IMO. I love this Iowa State defense and that should keep them close. OU is coming off a tough loss and you have to wonder how they will respond. I may add more later but the line and situation make it a play at this time.
Texas A&M -7 @ Mississippi St (2 UNITS) - Mullen talked about how the A&M was more important for the program than the Bama game last week but they have to be questioning themselves after getting thrashed. The two losses that A&M has were to Florida and LSU who have MUCH better defenses than what they will face in Starkville. I look for a quick start by the Aggies and MSU won't be able to keep up.
Texas Tech -7 v. Texas (2 UNITS) - Tech has looked pretty good all year except against the best two teams in the Big XII. Texas's defense will struggle to stop the Tech passing game but now the Texas offense is having problems too.
Ole Miss +14 @ Georgia (2 UNITS) - Letdown and facing a team coming off a very important road win. Ole Miss is learning how to win under Hugh Freeze and Georgia was fortunate that Florida just so happened to throw up on themselves more than Georgia did. Great spot to back a road dog!
Looking over more but these plays look pretty good to me!
Hard not to lean Oregon. They are so much better defensively and their offense is so explosive (like always). USC is going to really struggle with keeping up IMO but this will be the best offense that Oregon has faced. Barkley missed a couple of throws Saturday that would have put Arizona away. The total is what I am interested in here.
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Quote Originally Posted by NYBUILT:
Bama looks good... Any thoughts on Oregon?
Hard not to lean Oregon. They are so much better defensively and their offense is so explosive (like always). USC is going to really struggle with keeping up IMO but this will be the best offense that Oregon has faced. Barkley missed a couple of throws Saturday that would have put Arizona away. The total is what I am interested in here.
Buying out of the Iowa State play...may actually make a play on Oklahoma.
Thursday night action:
Eastern Michigan +16 (2 UNITS) - This is from my Miamo OH v. Ohio writeup last week...
The Bobcats are unbeaten but have struggled putting away opponents of late. They have won their last four games v. FBS opponents by an average of 4.75 ppg. Those opponents have a combined record of 5-24. They haven't won any of those games by more than 7 points. They have outrushed 3 of 4 of those opponents and have won the turnover battle by a +7 margin. The bottom line is they just can't separate themselves from below average competition.
Of course Ohio went on to lose that game and now we see another large spread against a bad team in Eastern MI. EMU is 1-7 on the year which inlcludes a loss to FCS Illinois State. The schedule has been pretty tough for EMU. The combined records of the FBS losses on EMU's schedule is 35-14. EMU has faced 4 of teh top 6 teams in the MAC and Ohio will be the 5th. Outside of the loss to Kent State they have been pretty competitive in all their losses in the MAC. That coupled with the fact that Ohio has struggled putting bad teams away has me believing that we have a good spot here.
Ohio is coming off their first loss of the season. It was heartbreaking considering they had fought back to get into position to tie the game with a FG only to take a sack and end the game. Ohio's last three games are Bowling Green, @ Ball St, and @ Kent St. This is by far the easiest game they have left on their schedule. After the emotional loss this a tough spot to "get up" while staring at a tough closing stretch.
Ohio is a solid running football team facing the worst rushing defense in the MAC (and FBS) but Ohio pass defense gives EMU a chance to move the ball here. I know EMU struggled offensively last week but Bowling Green is 8th in the nation in total defense (far and away the best defense in the MAC).
This seems to be a play where the public is backing Ohio to cover a number that they haven't covered all year, especially within the MAC. You see a 7-1 team at home facing a 1-7 team and it looks good if Akron is good enough to play Ohio close on the road and UMass can play Ohio to a FG then EMU can cover 2+ TD's.
Leaning:
Western KY
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Buying out of the Iowa State play...may actually make a play on Oklahoma.
Thursday night action:
Eastern Michigan +16 (2 UNITS) - This is from my Miamo OH v. Ohio writeup last week...
The Bobcats are unbeaten but have struggled putting away opponents of late. They have won their last four games v. FBS opponents by an average of 4.75 ppg. Those opponents have a combined record of 5-24. They haven't won any of those games by more than 7 points. They have outrushed 3 of 4 of those opponents and have won the turnover battle by a +7 margin. The bottom line is they just can't separate themselves from below average competition.
Of course Ohio went on to lose that game and now we see another large spread against a bad team in Eastern MI. EMU is 1-7 on the year which inlcludes a loss to FCS Illinois State. The schedule has been pretty tough for EMU. The combined records of the FBS losses on EMU's schedule is 35-14. EMU has faced 4 of teh top 6 teams in the MAC and Ohio will be the 5th. Outside of the loss to Kent State they have been pretty competitive in all their losses in the MAC. That coupled with the fact that Ohio has struggled putting bad teams away has me believing that we have a good spot here.
Ohio is coming off their first loss of the season. It was heartbreaking considering they had fought back to get into position to tie the game with a FG only to take a sack and end the game. Ohio's last three games are Bowling Green, @ Ball St, and @ Kent St. This is by far the easiest game they have left on their schedule. After the emotional loss this a tough spot to "get up" while staring at a tough closing stretch.
Ohio is a solid running football team facing the worst rushing defense in the MAC (and FBS) but Ohio pass defense gives EMU a chance to move the ball here. I know EMU struggled offensively last week but Bowling Green is 8th in the nation in total defense (far and away the best defense in the MAC).
This seems to be a play where the public is backing Ohio to cover a number that they haven't covered all year, especially within the MAC. You see a 7-1 team at home facing a 1-7 team and it looks good if Akron is good enough to play Ohio close on the road and UMass can play Ohio to a FG then EMU can cover 2+ TD's.
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