Posted: 10/4/2012 10:06:47 AM
Last Week: 5-3
Best Bets: 4-0
Had a pretty good season so far, hopefully I can keep it rolling this weekend. I'm really liking one game in particular this weekend and you will see below.
Ark State -2
- FIU's QB being out is part of the reason I'm taking Ark State here, but the other reason is the players for ASU have now had time to buy into Malzahn's system and I'm expecting the senior qb to have a field day against FIU.
Penn State -2.5
- This team has finally starting rolling offensively as everyone is buying into O'brien's system. This could be scary because the Penn State defense is legit. I don't really think NW has been tested to date and let's be honest nobody had NW being 5-0. They are overachieving and this weekend will bring them back to reality.
- I know this has been a highly debated game this week and I'm making a prediction that Mettenberger will have his best game of the year so far. Despite what people are saying about LSU of late, they still have the 2nd best defense in the SEC and I think it is going to be really hard for UF to move the ball. I think LSU is tired of hearing they are not as good as everyone thought they are and they will come with something to prove in this game. This should be a great game to watch and low scoring LSU 19 UF 16.
- I can't believe I just typed that, but there are a lot of positives for Auburn to take from the LSU game. They are coming off a bye week and this should help Frazier's development as a QB. And let's not kid ourselves, backing John L. Smith at the present moment is like throwing your money in a dumpster and lighting it on fire!
UL-Lafayette -27 (Best Bet)
- The only thing I really need to say is Tulane is averaging 5 rushing yards per game!!! And that is on 95 carries. This stat just amazes me! Not to mention Tulane may be without their QB on the road. This smells like an all out behind kicking.
Miss State -10 Game of the Year*****
- I follow both teams very closely, since I live in Lexington and went to Miss State. UK is in desperation mode at the moment lifting the redshirt off of Patrick Towles to play qb. He won't start, but they will implement a 2 qb system. I was not impressed with Whitlow last week as they only put up 250 yards of offense. What a lot of people dont understand about the 1st half of the South Carolina game is USC got stuffed on the goal line on a 4 and 1 and UK also blocked a punt. There will not be much of a home field advantage this weekend as most fans have had enough and will be at opening day of Keeneland (which is bigger than football and basketball in Lexington).
With that being said, Miss State is coming off a bye week in which Tyler Russell has not looked as crisp as he was in the first two games. I'm expected a much better game from him this week as well as for the State rushing game to attack the 2nd worst rushing defense in the SEC. On the defensive side of the ball Miss State leads the nation in turnover margin and is 2nd in the nation in interceptions. Their secondary is lead by a first round draft pick in Banks and Slay will likely go in the early rounds as well. This is very important because UK is going to play two true freshmen qb's this weekend and all the coaches have said they are having to "dumb down" the playbook and make it more simple. These D Backs will eat up simple!
So there you have it. I'm sure some will call this a huge homer play, but I know these two teams better than any and I really feel like this is a great spot for MSU to dominate.
Would welcome all feedback and am happy to elaborate on any of the picks. GL to everyone this weekend.