CFB Week 4 2H System Plays(monitoring)

Forum: Penalty Box Page 1 of 20  1 2 3 4 5   »
Author: [Penalty Box] Topic: CFB Week 4 2H System Plays(monitoring)
moasis PM moasis
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 118
 
moasis
Participation Meter
Banned
Posted: 9/19/2012 8:32:28 PM
YTD 0-0 
Let me start off by saying I didn't create this system.  NJPorky started a NFL thread and I wanted to see how it would do in cfb.  I'm just monitoring the plays right now so proceed at your own risk.

The premise of the system is as follows, you take the winning first half play(side or total) if there is a 10 point differential between what the second half line should be and what it actually is.

Here is a made up example:
Team A(-3) vs Team B Total is 42

The score after first half is Team A 10 Team B 3.  Team A won the the first half bet.  The 2nd half line based on the original game line should be Team A + 4(7+-3)  Team B -4.  Instead it's Team A -4 and Team B +4. There is a 10 point differential between what the 2nd half line should be(-4) and what it actually is(+4) so you take Team A in the second half.  Same goes for totals. The under hit the first half. The second half total should be 29(42-13) but instead it's 17.5. The under in the second half would be the play.  Once again the winning bet in the first half would be the bet in the second half if there is a 10 point differential.  I will post records for 10 or greater and 13 point or greater because some in the other thread said 13 point differential had a better record.  
pagelee PM pagelee
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 148
 
pagelee
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 9/19/2012 8:37:24 PM
Thanks Mo for pulling this info from Porky's thread.  I'll follow....
ClemsonFan1 PM ClemsonFan1
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 386
 
ClemsonFan1
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 9/19/2012 8:38:30 PM
So Kent was a 3.5 favorite and they are down 3 at the half.  What should the number be?

ClemsonFan1 PM ClemsonFan1
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 386
 
ClemsonFan1
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 9/19/2012 8:39:13 PM
Buffalo is -1.5 2nd half

moasis PM moasis
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 118
 
moasis
Participation Meter
Banned
Posted: 9/19/2012 8:40:33 PM

Kent St  @ Buffalo
Buffalo was -3 and 51
At the half, Kent State leads 10-7
2H lines should be Buffalo -6 and 38
2H lines are Buffalo -1.5 and 23.5
Thus we have

UNDER 23.5 is the play

nuggetmonster PM nuggetmonster
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 10509
 
nuggetmonster
Participation Meter
All-Star
Posted: 9/19/2012 8:41:33 PM
moasis PM moasis
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 118
 
moasis
Participation Meter
Banned
Posted: 9/19/2012 8:43:24 PM
Did my math wrong guys. The line should be 34 for the under but it still satisfies the under play.
tom-jerry PM tom-jerry
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 8677
 
tom-jerry
Participation Meter
Captain
Posted: 9/19/2012 8:44:11 PM

buff on 2h

O/23.5

dcgmt PM dcgmt
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 5754
 
dcgmt
Participation Meter
Captain
Posted: 9/19/2012 8:44:50 PM
gl
tom-jerry PM tom-jerry
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 8677
 
tom-jerry
Participation Meter
Captain
Posted: 9/19/2012 8:45:42 PM

buff-1.5

O/23.5 are play

pagelee PM pagelee
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 148
 
pagelee
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 9/19/2012 8:47:24 PM
  I'll have another and watch.
moasis PM moasis
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 118
 
moasis
Participation Meter
Banned
Posted: 9/19/2012 8:48:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tom-jerry:

buff-1.5

O/23.5 are play

Not dismissing this my friend.  Just monitoring for the time being.  Put 0.25u on it just for the heck of it.
sharps69 PM sharps69
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 83
 
sharps69
Participation Meter
Banned
Posted: 9/19/2012 8:49:25 PM

I DONT GET IT

 

how do u get 38 for a 2nd half ???

 

moasis PM moasis
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 118
 
moasis
Participation Meter
Banned
Posted: 9/19/2012 8:51:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sharps69:

I DONT GET IT

 

how do u get 38 for a 2nd half ???

 

It's 34. I made a mistake. I mentioned that a few post up. It still satisfies for a play though.
tinoker55 PM tinoker55
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 18962
 
tinoker55
Participation Meter
MVP
Posted: 9/19/2012 8:56:44 PM

34??  The total for the 2nd half SHOULD NOT be 34...

moasis PM moasis
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 118
 
moasis
Participation Meter
Banned
Posted: 9/19/2012 9:01:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tinoker55:

34??  The total for the 2nd half SHOULD NOT be 34...


It's the system my friend.  Of course watching the game it shouldn't be that high but it's part of the system.  
pagelee PM pagelee
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 148
 
pagelee
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 9/19/2012 9:01:29 PM
I'm with u nuggs.
lilmojo021 PM lilmojo021
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 86
 
lilmojo021
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 9/19/2012 9:04:47 PM

thanks for posting, ill be following moasis....

side note i bet this system in ncaa football last week...random games most ranked in top 25, and came out with a 7-2 record..

Hopefully this isnt a fluke.

 

lilmojo021 PM lilmojo021
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 86
 
lilmojo021
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 9/19/2012 9:05:28 PM
If im correct didnt you create a spreadsheet or something similar to track this??? if so can you pm it to me?
tinoker55 PM tinoker55
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 18962
 
tinoker55
Participation Meter
MVP
Posted: 9/19/2012 9:07:08 PM
Even if you arent watching the game there is no way that the total for the 2nd half SHOULD be 34..
moasis PM moasis
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 118
 
moasis
Participation Meter
Banned
Posted: 9/19/2012 9:10:21 PM
I created an app but it needs work. I am punkcash created an excel spreadsheet. He may give it to you. I got banned for posting my program so I'm weary of doing so now.
Posted using a mobile device.
moasis PM moasis
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 118
 
moasis
Participation Meter
Banned
Posted: 9/19/2012 9:11:04 PM
Tink. You are being literal. Just watch and see how it goes.
Posted using a mobile device.
tinoker55 PM tinoker55
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 18962
 
tinoker55
Participation Meter
MVP
Posted: 9/19/2012 9:14:52 PM
So subtracting the 1st half total from the full game total and seeing if  its a 10 pt diff is the system??? And it works? I have to speak to the 2nd half elders to see whats up here..
moasis PM moasis
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 118
 
moasis
Participation Meter
Banned
Posted: 9/19/2012 9:22:50 PM
It works decently in the nfl. It has to do with middling and placing a 2h line. Books hate that because they pay double but everybody knows that.
Posted using a mobile device.
pagelee PM pagelee
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 148
 
pagelee
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 9/19/2012 9:41:43 PM

Its all based on the fact that they didn't build billion dollar casinos and pump water a 100 miles from getting beat on both sides of the game.  The system simply sides with the billionares for the second half.

Forum: Penalty Box Page 1 of 20  1 2 3 4 5   »
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.