Posted:
#1
I feel more confident in my plays when I write them up and reason through why I'm playing them. Feel free to cut up any reasoning, picks and give your own opinion. Here's my first writeup for week 1, if people respond back and give their opinions, I'll post the rest by the end of tomorrow.
Toledo at Arizona
The line opened at Arizona -4.5 but it dropped to -10 over a couple of weeks. My predicted lines are Arizona -2.15 and Arizona -2. I use a variety of different power rankings and indexes to create an average line. As you can see Arizona is overvalued by 8 points. This is my main reason for picking this game. A low profile game with a weak line in my opinion.
As far as home field advantage is concerned, Arizona doesn't really have a noticable one. I have it at around 4 points which is the average HFA for most teams. This number is already incorporated into the predicted line but if I see a large HFA such as 8 or 10, I like to look into it, instead of getting a line from it.
Calculating the implied and fair win probabilites, I see over a 2% overvalue of Arizona which is already seen in the predicted line but I like to confirmation.
Time for stats. Last season, Toledo had a point differential of 11.3 while Arizona had -4.7. Toledo has 2 great QB's, Dantin and Owens who each have different styles, Dantin is a pocket passer and Owens sets up running plays. This is the reason why the point diff. was a solid positive number. Arizona suffered with a poor defense. Toledo had a total scoring rank of 8 vs Arizona's 109 overall defense rank. Toledo is generally better on the road offense wise compared to Arizona's home defense. Arizona's offense vs. Toledo's defense shows some interesting numbers. Arizona is ranked 5th in home passing vs but ranked 105th in home rushing compared to Toledo's 20th rank in away rushing defense. So, Arizona is basically stuck passing unless they can improve their running game.
The problem with that is the fact that Toledo is 52.9 yards better at passing defense compared to the league. However, Toledo is 37.8 yards WORSE at rushing defense than the league. But unless Arizona can improve their running game, this is an unused weak spot.
One of the reasons why I think the line is what is favouring Arizona by 10 is because of their 2 past games in 2008 and 2010. Arizona won both. 41-2 in 2008 and 41-16 in 2010. This is a long time ago and if Vegas is using this information, they are expecting bettors to use misleading information.
As far as situationals go, Toledo has 2 great QB's as mentioned earlier and Fluellen takes good care of the RB role. Their only weak spot is the D line but they have a transfer coming in, Emilien LB, and Molls, who was out for the second half of 2011. They are both good players so they should have a positive improvement on the defensive side.
Arizona's QB, Scott is a good, balanced player who should have no problem leading the team. They do lack a good RB but Carey, 425 rush yds, 6 TD as a freshman will try and fill the spot. Lastly, Arizona needs better defense, I do not know of any new players or improvements happening as of yet so I am not expecting a surprise.
As far as tough schedules go, Arizona has the 3rd toughest schedule and Toledo is ranked at 112th. So I don't see Arizona going 110% on their first game against Toledo.
Toledo +10
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