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[College Football] Topic: NCAA WEEK 1 ***Educated Guessing*** |
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TRAIN69 |
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#1 Posted: 8/8/2012 3:06:16 PM 
No need to tell you I am friggin ready for this season to start if you know me at all or have been around more than a year. About to hit the decade mark here on Covers. Where did all that time go!?
Week one has pluses and minuses.....The unknown is great, so you have to rely on your gut and available info.
Had another good year last season ( not great, but still on the plus side). Missed some big games and bets. You live and you learn....experience is the best teacher.
So to all my old friends and soon to be friends..... 
To all my old haters and soon to be haters.....eat a person. 
Mich St -6.5 -120 ..... Initially liked BSU, but they simply have too many holes to plug, and a night game in Sparty land isnt the place to get your 1st test.....
ND/Navy O61 .....The line is spot on, so I cant touch a side. The Irish will have a home field advantage even being overseas. The option will put up some points as its not the ideal 1st game offense to play while still working on assignments and schemes. The ND offense should be able to move the ball regardless of whos at qb. I see no reason the loser doesnt put up at least mid twenties....
SJST +25.5 .... Just a big number to cover for a team that will be replacing a TON.....The total being 54 means the oddsmakers are looking for a 40-14 type of game....I think SJST can keep it closer than that...hell I will probably have a little action on the ML
Ohio St -22.5 ..... Urban Meyer should be good for an extra 14 ppg and that stadium will be rocking with anticipation, and with good reason. The Bucks defense will be stout per usual. Really dont think M Oh scores twice, if at all
USC -38 ..... Bloodbath. I am no Kiffin fan, but Hawaii should get abused for 54+ pointsas UH should be good for 4 or 5 turnovers. USC finally has hopes, not to mention a very talented squad....thats a dangerous combo
GT +7.5 ..... The Yellowjacket offense will be healthy and is a beast when hitting on all cylinders. They drop off mid season due to injuries (lots of lineman issues due to lots of movements/blocking schemes) . VT just isnt what it was 5 to 10 years ago. The special teams have even declined. Logan Thomas is a beast, but he doesnt have explosive speed or an accurate arm. I like this game to come down to the last possession.
Looking at :
UNLV +8
Iowa St +1
Bama -12
Oregon/Ark St O65
Kentucky +14.5
Zona -10
Florida -29
Ohio/PSU U43 and possibly the OU ML
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LonghornHoosier |
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#2 Posted: 8/8/2012 3:17:19 PM |
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DoubleUp4Life |
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#3 Posted: 8/8/2012 3:21:18 PM 
Good sign for you ... I am not on or VS you on any of these
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TreyInventor |
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#4 Posted: 8/8/2012 3:21:23 PM Sup Train! BOL this season man. I like your possible leans on Bama -12 and Oregon Arky over 65. Michigans starting RB will not be playing. THey do have a 5 10 220 lb 2nd stringer but hes not as athletic. I think Bama can stop Michigan at the point of attack run wise making Dennard throw the ball. He's not the best passer, I see him throwing 1 pic to a LB and probably 1 pick to a CB or a safety. ANd Oregon can score 60 themselves.
Ohio State, USC, Michigan State and GT I like as well. I just hope Kiffin doesnt call the dogs off in the 4th and let em score two garbage TDS for a backdoor cover.  |
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warcameagle56 |
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#5 Posted: 8/8/2012 3:26:58 PM |
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SatNightFever05 |
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#6 Posted: 8/8/2012 3:34:07 PM
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GoGoplata123 |
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#7 Posted: 8/8/2012 3:54:45 PM |
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Posted using a mobile device.quote |
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416bet |
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#8 Posted: 8/8/2012 5:13:53 PM |
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cherokee10 |
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#9 Posted: 8/8/2012 5:21:30 PM Train
Like MSU/OSU/GT and Bama
May bite at USC/Fla as well......I love me some large spreads, and week 1 is the time to do it.
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BarrelledIn |
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#10 Posted: 8/8/2012 5:29:50 PM
The idea is to get good numbers so you don't have to buy, clowntrain. MSU -6.5 was available for a awhile and may be again, but you have -120 already locked in like a square
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TRAIN69 |
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#11 Posted: 8/8/2012 5:39:51 PM Didnt realize 1/6 was = 1/2 . Thanks for pointing that out.WAS and MAY are typical degenerate verbage.....
Please keep the info coming if you have time with all those person in your mouth. |
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BarrelledIn |
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#12 Posted: 8/8/2012 5:44:18 PM
-110 is bad enough -120 in NCAAF is squaretrain 101
you're 43 year old hanging on the internet and live to suck boom boom's dik and you're talking about what's in my mouth 
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Boom_Boom |
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#13 Posted: 8/8/2012 5:45:15 PM
Im waiting on -6.5 on the Michigan S.T if I can get it.
As always, BOL this season BRO....
one more thing
I will own you in the challenge
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casheasy |
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#14 Posted: 8/8/2012 5:51:56 PM |
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ApocalypseLater |
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#15 Posted: 8/8/2012 9:58:36 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by BarrelledIn: go back to last year and tally up how many games you bought a half point then tally up how many times it made a difference -110 is bad enough -120 in NCAAF is squaretrain 101 you're 43 year old hanging on the internet and live to suck boom boom's dik and you're talking about what's in my mouth
your posts scream of someone who has been betting CFB for 3 years or less... i have seen enough from you to know i will not be paying a minute's worth of attention to what you have to "contribute" to this forum this year...
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bonilla420 |
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#16 Posted: 8/8/2012 10:03:14 PM |
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BarrelledIn |
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#17 Posted: 8/8/2012 10:26:14 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:
your posts scream of someone who has been betting CFB for 3 years or less... i have seen enough from you to know i will not be paying a minute's worth of attention to what you have to "contribute" to this forum this year...
Won't be able to sleep tonight 
To read between the lines of your post buying points is a good idea in your mind and novices disagree? You are an idiot. Tell me the breakeven difference between -110 and -120 and how often buying that half point will matter. Thanks. Not even considering this line was just -6.5.
You are the guy who locked in bets a month before the games hours AFTER they moved off key numbers? Yep
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shark_apreza |
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#18 Posted: 8/8/2012 10:35:32 PM ----- whats up man-----just joking....glad to see u on CFB forums ...wish u the best this season ..and im looking forward to have nice arguements with u bol |
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TRAIN69 |
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#19 Posted: 8/8/2012 10:37:24 PM Buying points is usually not a good idea, but if you do this long enough you got to go with your gut. My gut tells me I dont want to push if BSU makes it a close one.Yep, I put my plays in today. Nope, I didnt get the best possible price. I am not betting 11000 to win 10k a game, so you extrapolating 1 game into a season of wagering and thinking its gonna effect my bottomline is inheritently wrong. I buy points when my gut tells me. It actually paid off several times last year. One instance was the PSU/E Mich game. Line was 28 all week. I bought a 1/2 point cause my gut told me too. Final was 34-6 . That one game winning instead of pushing paid for the rest of my buys all season.
I'm glad you think you are dropping wisdom bombs kid, but you arent inventing the wheel here. I know the earth is flat. E = MC Hammer. This isnt rocket surgery. Circle gets the square.
Keep the coo coo in the clock. |
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TRAIN69 |
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#20 Posted: 8/8/2012 10:38:08 PM |
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2MuchJohnson4U |
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#21 Posted: 8/8/2012 10:53:44 PM
GL |
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jdnmoney |
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#22 Posted: 8/8/2012 11:10:36 PM
GL this year guy |
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nickeydyme |
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#23 Posted: 8/8/2012 11:40:40 PM |
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ApocalypseLater |
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#24 Posted: 8/9/2012 9:34:34 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by BarrelledIn: Won't be able to sleep tonight To read between the lines of your post buying points is a good idea in your mind and novices disagree? You are an idiot. Tell me the breakeven difference between -110 and -120 and how often buying that half point will matter. Thanks. Not even considering this line was just -6.5. You are the guy who locked in bets a month before the games hours AFTER they moved off key numbers? Yep
not sure what part of this you are failing to understand...
it doesn't matter what the line WAS at a book that i can't bet... i live in America... i cannot bet lines at 5Dimes... those lines might as well be fictional...
i bet the lines that were available at the book that i can bet them at... and i bet them as soon as the lines were posted... never at Bookmaker were the lines on the games i bet, any better than when i bet them...
as for the MSU game, it is a perfect example of a game where buying a half point is a good idea, because that game could definitely end up being 21-14 or some such, and you will be a fool for not having bought the hook if it lands on 7...
the reality is, someone who has only been betting for a couple years likes to overuse the terms "square" and "sharp", because they are still learning how to bet this game, and don't have any actual experience on which to base it...
i'm talking about you, in case you missed that...
as you may have noticed, other very well-respected cappers around here, like Nostradamus, Bookieassassin, etc... agree with jumping on lines early... and i for one have been grabbing lines early for a long time... and it has never proven to be a bad thing...
live and learn, dude!
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youngmoney23 |
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#25 Posted: 8/9/2012 1:18:35 PM
Im American and i use 5dimes? |
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