USC and Lane Kiffin

I will preface this discussion with the fact that I am a Tennessee fan. However, I never let that cloud my judgement when it comes to capping. In fact, I believe it gives me first hand knowledge of this subject. Now to the discussion:

Is anyone else not ready to just hand the crystal ball to USC and Kiffin this year? My concern is based on Kiffin's lack of production on the field throughout his career. He has yet to win consistently at any level (and don't bring up Chizik, a blind monkey could have won with gus at his side and newton on the field). Never has he even been in any sort of a championship race when the pressure is on. We all know of his recruiting skills and that does mean he has amassed talent on the field, but in-game coaching is key to winning in the college ranks, not talent alone. We have yet to see if Monte's system (and I respect the hell out of what he did in the NFL) can work in college and in my opinion, having Ed Orgeron on the sidelines can do no good for a team. I want to know everyone's thoughts on this.

I have already played Oregon to win the PAC-12 at +215 (love the value in that play) as a fade of this USC team.







GL to all

I agree! I feel that Barkley is an incredible QB. However, he doesn't face a "tough" or "challenging" defense week in and week out. I feel USC will be a strong team...and very well may hold the crystal ball in January. However, I'm anxious to see USC as a full package...coaching and all!

 It's tough enough to win even when everything goes right............I can see Kiffen costing his team at least 1 win.

at Utah will be the one that burns them ....

posted earlier.....

 USC ready to line up and kick the nation's ass?

1st...how good were they REALLY last year?
   *agreed at end of last year their level of play...was as good as most anybody

BUT...why exactly were they very average .....as late as first part of October?

Does it really make sense....that they go from being a BAD team week 1.....to a GREAT team week 12 ??
    *Week 1 they almost lost at home to one of nation's worst teams

Then....
*struggled with (at that time) a weak Utah team
*week 4 they still stunk....losing at Ariz St by 21
*week 6....they wake up at 7-6 Cal....with the help of 5 Cal TO's
*nice win at 8-5 N Dame.....aided by 3 very costly Irish TO's
*week 8 .....they lose at home to Tree
*great bounceback win.................at 3-10 Colorado
*with double revenge....beat 7-6 Wash
*great win at Oregon...but Ducks off Stanford road...(and at Washington week before)
*then beat the crap outta UCLA..............ok
     *note 3 HC's fired.....

NOW....they lose their best OL and DL guys.....plus their great WR ....just got fitted for an ankle brace to wear for the 2012 season......
     *because of inflammation created by BONE on BONE rubbing.................YIKES
AND.....their 2 TE's were too hurt to work in the spring...along with Farmer (needed the work)....and NO TACKLING
any other top team not tackle?....Kiffin said might continue in Fall.......



Why can't everybody separate Kiffin the man.....and Kiffin the coach?.....the man is widely despised....(his own dad reportedly not a huge fan).....but LK the COACH....so far doing a great job....and if has a great year this year will have to be recognized as a top notch HC....

bookie-

i said nothing about kiffin the man (trust me, i don't want to start down that road). the purpose of this thread is to discuss kiffin the coach, and my point is that i see no historical reason to say he is a good, in-game coach. yet he seems to quickly be gaining a reputation as an elite HC among talking heads, magazines and people in this forum.








GL to all

usc across d board...including the heisman for barkley..these boys/coach have a chip on their shoulders and will have no mercy this year....i will play them ats in every game including the natl champs..oh yea and pac 12 title 

got some EVIDENCE......to draw a conclusion he can't coach?

* Raiders sucked......okey dokey

*2009 USC ?
9-4 SU / 4-9 ATS
27 pts/g   389 yds TO   14.7 yds/pt
     *lost to Zona at home.....Tree (by 34 at home)...Ducks by 27....and 5-7 Washington......> they weren't very good

     *LK takes over a mediocre team.....with serious handicaps.....scholarship reduction + no bowls

2011 USC ?
10-2 SU / 8-4 ATS
36 pts/g   457 TO   12.8 yds/pt
     *note > his team got MUCH better as season progressed....the sign of a good coach......(a poorly coached team will get worse usually)

2012 USC?
ranked either #1 or #2 in nation by most everybody

*should be very clear...they are much better now...than when he got the job.....despite severe restrictions
     *any other team get BETTER.....under probation?

*** personally I give him an incomplete so far.....as you can see I think they are probably overrated  ....his defenses have been worse yes...and he is accountable sure....but looks like the 2012 D will be very close to USC standards

And those Tenn Vols?....

he took over a bad team.....made them better.....now (so far)....they are worse than when he left.....5 coaches bail in the off-season......so far Dooley get's an incomplete....but appears they would have been much better had LK stayed......but we'll see

2008 > 5-7 SU/6-6 ATS
            17.3 pts/g   269 TO   4.5/play   15.5 yds/pt

2009 > 7-6 SU/7-6 ATS
       29.3 pts/g   383 TO   5.7/play   13.1 yds/pt
    * lost at Bama by 2......smoked Georgia and S Caro
       played a very motivated Gator squad tough

2011 >  5-7 SU / 4-8
       20 pts/g   333 TO   5.0/play   16.4 yds/pt
      1-7 SU in SEC play....lost to freakin' Kentucky

errrrr....didn't address anybody.....seems to be Covers consensus by a wide margin that he doesn't know WTF he's doing..........as usual.....based on EMOTION.....rather than objective analysis

 

consensus doesn't think the mad hatter can coach either...that's why the consensus is broke

not only Covers....knowledgeable CFB fans that I know for sure are pretty smart ........say the same thing

The HAT can't manage a game to save his life....(so now he let's others do it)........but is OBVIOUSLY a great HC.....he has other duties ya know .....

*tell you what though.....if Mettenberger turns out to be this 2nd coming as some are saying......assuming he didn't get there OVERNIGHT......why TF didn't he play last year ?......so you (basically) gave away the BCS title because of loyalty to JJ and JL????......> not being able to PASS....they really had no shot

With Kiffin I don't know what it is.....jealousy?

guy gets these great jobs.....without having done much...and is 100% dedicated to getting it done.....ANYWAY he can........wouldn't have the guy over for a beer (unless he brings his wife)....but I kinda like that brash.....hey get TF outta my way....here we come kinda attitude
      *in a super cut-throat bizness....these boys are paid to WIN ......NOW

Will the Probation period effect USC's Depth? Was it 10 or 15 overall scholarships?

bookie great break downs.

but i think we are arguing the same point. never did i say anything about him being unable to coach, the point i'm trying to make is that we just have no proof that he can consistently win at an elite level. your choice to grade him as incomplete is spot on in my opinion. and therefore i personal am not sold on him making a jump from his current resume to winning the national title this year. that is the point of this discussion.








GL to all

nos-
good to see you this year bro
consensus. ha! the only thing more bull shit than the consensus is the sites that claim to provide consensus data

as for the mad hat, there is such a thing in sports as a winning gene and i've never seen it as prevalent in one person as much as him. more power to him 








GL to all

 
a total of 75....(10 less than other schools)
no more than 15 signed /year...10 less also

    * a chart of their scholarships....
https://usc.rivals.com/content.asp?SID=995&CID=1101304

It's made it tougher no doubt...but
as far as effecting the current on the field product....not even close to what most thought....
as most everybody plays now (too many high school studs sitting on their ass can create a really bad atmosphere)...and coaches have had to work much harder to get quality players.....and the early playing time has allowed them to develop faster....
     *plus Pete C had a fairly lean scholarship number anyway.....usually keeping less than 85 ..(it seems)
 

dugie - same here, good to see you back for another year bud     bookie - good stuff

no doubt the hatter isn't the best with time management..he's better than people think though at some more impt things like coaching, recruiting and players play for him....and pretty good last few years navigating around some bad QBs....Kiffin remains TBD.......only 2 wins against ranked opponents and one of those was Arizona (somehow 18 at the time in '10)....talent is still down on defense compared to previous yrs and 23.6 ppg last year

he's above average--nothing more.

It's kind of hard to choke when you are 3 TDs ahead by halftime.  Don't forget the choke factor on the other side of the line.  It's got to be pretty scary facing a team that can score so fast. 

Like the OP I need to preface the fact that I am a UT Alum/fan, but even though I cheer against LK, I absolutely respect his decision to leave TN. 

I was very excited when LK was hired at UT, and disappointed when he left. He is a hell of a recruiter and like it or not that is part of coaching. The Xs and Os, I am still undecided.

When LK left UT, there was a slide, but not necessarily because coaching dropped off. (I am not saying it did or did not as I am still debating on Dooley) But due to player attrition resulting from 3 coaches in  3 years we were down to about 60/63 scholly players. It takes a while to recover from that. Additionally following Dooley's first year UT had the largest senior class in the SEC, so that year we lost the most seniors and the most freshman as LK's one recruiting class ended up not panning out. (Great on paper, but some criminal activity, head cases and just not wanting to play for a coach that did not recruit you left it empty).

Like the OP, I am not sold on Monte at the college level. The one year Monte was at UT there was a statistical drop-off from the year before with Chavis, but that could be simply putting in new defensive schemes...one year is not a good measuring stick. The Bama game that year also show what LK can do...impressive that we were even in that game. It also indicated a weakness as when the game was on the line and we drove to the 30 yard line with about 45 secs to go we stopped on offense and played for a long winning FG (and already having a previous FG blocked in that game) He coached not to make a mistake a opposed to win the game. 45 Secs in CFb is an eternity and we could have been more aggressive to gain another 10-15 yards. Maybe a mistake, maybe not....in that game it was not the right call as the long FG was once again blocked. But it can easily be argued it was a good strategy as it has worked for other coaches in other spots.

As far as USC goes I do not watch many games, and I am not up to speed with their active roster. But one thing regarding the depth of the USC to keep in mind. The 10 scholly reduction did not start until the 2012 signing class, so this year will be the first class (freshmen) of about 15 players. I am not certain but I believe this will hold true for 2013 and 2014. That is when you may see the depth become a major issue.  Scholarship reductions typically would not affect a team the first year or two as there are not too many freshman that can step in and play effectively (but if there are LK will recruit 'em) but later when the total scholly players are down (and if some players leave early) that is when I can see LK struggle some. That will not necessarily be an indication of his coaching either as the best coaches will struggle with 55-60 scholly players. 

Like I said earlier I am disappointed that LK left TN, which I guess is to say I think he is a good coach. How good, I will wait and see.....until he wins something, I will only consider him a good coach.

BTW....I am a long time listener for time calling kind of guy. I enjoy reading the board very much as I would like to become a better gambler but I do not think I have enough information to really help others, but I thought I may have enough knowledge this time to chime in on this subject.

Good luck too all.... regardless of how they bet on USC!

great first post on Covers. 

Thanks Kipster 

https://usc.rivals.com/content.asp?SID=995&CID=1101304

Okay I typed some other info but apparently it did not post...Damn I got to work at my posting skills.

In short, I was indicating that LK has done a good job on managing his scholarships in preparation of the reductions through the redshirting. Even though USC was limited to 15 schollies last year they have 30 freshmen on scholarship. USC will be able to stay near the 75 max throughout the entire sanctions (assuming most signees do not have academic/injury/criminal issues). Now as the OP mentioned depth this year may be a legitimate concern with regard to the nummer of redshift athletes having less game experience. Next couple years may be rough but should rebound without much of a hiccup.  Also at 73 they could pick-up Silas Redd without exceeding their limit so the NCAA may allow it (although it would put them over the 15 max for 2012, so maybe they will not allow)

Oregon +215

nice bet my brother.........I think you'll cash that ticket