RSW total UNBELIEVABLE value IMO

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Author: [College Football] Topic: RSW total UNBELIEVABLE value IMO
jdnmoney PM jdnmoney
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Posted: 7/15/2012 3:29:45 PM
thoughts?

UTEP under 4.5 Regular Season Wins (-130)


lets break down the schedule and see how it looks

@ Oklahoma            LOSS
@ Mississippi           LOSS
    New Mexico St     NMST better than you think, TOSS UP
@ Wisconsin           LOSS
@ ECU                   LOSS
    SMU                   LOSS
@ Tulsa                  LOSS
    Tulane                 WIN
@ Houston              LOSS
    UCF                    LOSS
@ Southern Miss      LOSS
    Rice                     WIN


Guys, i see three wins (if they beat NMST), and if they get lucky and get one more they shouldn't that makes 4, i do not see how they win 5 games.


In my opinion they have 5-6 guaranteed losses
@ Ou
@ Miss
@ Wisconsin
@ Southern Miss
@ Houston
Home vs. UCF


i dont see them going 5-1 vs
New mexico state
Tulane
@Tulsa
SMU
@ECU
Rice


anyone else have any thoughts,



jdnmoney PM jdnmoney
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Posted: 7/15/2012 3:31:25 PM
sorry, they are at home vs Oklahoma,

but wont matter,
DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 7/15/2012 4:16:31 PM
wow you are spot on with this one ...

must admit CUSA is the only conference i have not really studied up on...(YET)

Just finished UTEP after i saw your thread and YES this looks like a great Bet ...

5 + Wins looks almost impossible

Thanks for the heads up Brother
jdnmoney PM jdnmoney
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Posted: 7/15/2012 5:15:31 PM
Double I am locking this in right now and hope to be doing this after the season



rated91 PM rated91
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Posted: 7/15/2012 11:19:45 PM
I dont know much about this scrapper team but after doing some research they could be fellow bottom feeding rival New Mexico State on Sept 15. Only 4 starters returning on defense but on offense Senior QB Nick Lamaison is pretty good and will have 4 returning linemen in front of him and some good weapons to throw to - 2 legit targets in WR's Mike Edwards and Jordan Leslie who combined for 80/1100 last year. Looking at the schedule myself I think they can beat NMst, Tulane at home, UCF and Rice at the most. I'd love under 5 here, I'll look at it somemore, I might bet this.
rated91 PM rated91
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Posted: 7/15/2012 11:30:24 PM
THIS IS A SOLID PLAY. 

When I wrote above ^ that they could beat UCF I was just stating that at first glance of their stats/schedule. Now looking over the fine details I'm pretty sure that UCF will be the best team in that conference. Forgive me, I don't really study these Conference USA teams that hard. I just read Phil Steele's write up and he's in agreement as well. 

Phil Steele: "Most of my 9 sets of PR call UTEP the 7th best team in CUSA behind the 6 league powers. They were -8 in TO's LY and are more exp'd but draw the toughest sched in CUSA as they are the only tm that has to play each of the leagues top 6 (UH, SMU, Tulsa, SM, EC, UCF). Their non-conf slate isn't very favorable either drawing Okla, Wisc along w Ole' Miss. I think this is Price's best tm in his last 6 yrs but unfortunately they could be an underdog in as many as 9 games making a winning season a difficult propostion"

Phil's Forecast: "Five wins LY was more than I expected but UTEP was -92.4 ypg in CUSA (3rd worst). TY they have 13 st'rs back which makes them more exp'd that LY and they were -8 in TO's in '11 almost qualifying for my Turnovers=Turnaround. This is Price's best team in the last 7 yrs but unfortunately they draw CUSA's toughest schedule and probably won't top LY's 5 win total."

I'm going to check what my book has it priced at, I might bet this.
jdnmoney PM jdnmoney
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Posted: 7/15/2012 11:53:58 PM
i was gonna say...

no chance they beat UCF
jdnmoney PM jdnmoney
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Posted: 7/15/2012 11:55:16 PM
nmsu has an o/u projection of 5.5...

i think they will be much better than usual
bookieassassin PM bookieassassin
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Posted: 7/16/2012 12:01:32 AM
looks good....
Not only does UTakEmPoints.....have a tough schedule
but this is the last year of Price's contract....
So after a series of beatdowns...we have a team very ripe to just say 'darn it'......and just play out the string for essentially a lame duck coach......

note > Miners are poor finishers anyway.....(Price's teams are 43-83 SU from game 7 out (41-82 ATS)

they (can) beat SMU without too much problem .....for some reason they play well vs the Ponies......and SMU off TCU......but looks like 3-9 ish to me...........
jdnmoney PM jdnmoney
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Posted: 7/16/2012 12:07:36 AM
yep...utep is garbage and i will be suprised if price comes back.

i think utep will struggle to win a game on the road (6) and will be lucky to win 3 of 6 aT home with CUSA's toughest schedule, and a tough Non conference
thorpe PM thorpe
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Posted: 7/16/2012 9:35:11 AM
UTEP will probably beat 1 team they have no business beating, but that still won't get them over the total.
jdnmoney PM jdnmoney
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Posted: 7/17/2012 7:21:48 PM
a few days after i lock in and 5Dimes is now offering the prop at this:


UTEP 2012 regular season wins - conference championships & bowl games do not apply
 18641 UTEP total wins over 4½
 +175      
 18642 UTEP total wins under 4½  -245 



didnt know my opinion was so highly regarded over there with those guys!
Charlie111 PM Charlie111
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Posted: 7/20/2012 4:26:10 PM
I see 3 to 4 wins with that schedule.  Good pick.
fsutomahawk PM fsutomahawk
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Posted: 7/20/2012 5:24:55 PM
They could beat Ole Miss 

I went over the schedule several times and I can't come up with more than 4 wins if all the teams are playing with assumed motivation and health throughout the season. 
nostradamus12 PM nostradamus12
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Posted: 7/20/2012 5:36:58 PM
best team total yet
Boom_Boom PM Boom_Boom
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Posted: 7/20/2012 6:34:38 PM
JD...I like these threads. It bring alot to this forum which desperately needs at times..


keep up the good work
jdnmoney PM jdnmoney
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Posted: 7/20/2012 11:59:30 PM
nostradomus Agreed man, too bad it went to -245...

boom-boom, just doin my thing man, i am all about adding quality angles to the capping on here


charlie,yep, about 3-4 wins
cherokee10 PM cherokee10
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Posted: 7/21/2012 8:51:10 PM

Really like this one, gonna have to lock it in soon.

jd

jdnmoney PM jdnmoney
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Posted: 8/9/2012 4:04:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jdnmoney:

thoughts?

UTEP under 4.5 Regular Season Wins (-130)


lets break down the schedule and see how it looks

@ Oklahoma            LOSS
@ Mississippi           LOSS
    New Mexico St     NMST better than you think, TOSS UP
@ Wisconsin           LOSS
@ ECU                   LOSS
    SMU                   LOSS
@ Tulsa                  LOSS
    Tulane                 WIN
@ Houston              LOSS
    UCF                    LOSS
@ Southern Miss      LOSS
    Rice                     WIN


Guys, i see three wins (if they beat NMST), and if they get lucky and get one more they shouldn't that makes 4, i do not see how they win 5 games.


In my opinion they have 5-6 guaranteed losses
@ Ou
@ Miss
@ Wisconsin
@ Southern Miss
@ Houston
Home vs. UCF


i dont see them going 5-1 vs
New mexico state
Tulane
@Tulsa
SMU
@ECU
Rice


anyone else have any thoughts,








now over under of 4.5 at
+205 o
-285  u


didnt realize me and doubleup4life moved the line that badly!!




jdnmoney PM jdnmoney
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jdnmoney
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Posted: 9/10/2012 6:51:31 PM
0-2 start  


jdnmoney PM jdnmoney
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jdnmoney
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Posted: 9/16/2012 10:16:01 AM
1-2 start almost certain they will be 1-3 after going to wisconsin.



jdnmoney PM jdnmoney
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jdnmoney
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Posted: 10/1/2012 1:41:50 AM
1-4 start 
jdnmoney PM jdnmoney
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jdnmoney
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Posted: 10/7/2012 3:10:30 PM
1-5

jdnmoney PM jdnmoney
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jdnmoney
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Posted: 10/14/2012 4:21:33 PM
1-6  

not gonna beat Houston or ucf, this baby should be wrapped up soon


jdnmoney PM jdnmoney
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Posted: 10/20/2012 11:28:35 PM
2-6

@ Houston next
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