KSU Vs Arkansas full write up

Kansas State Vs. Arkansas:

Questions that need accurate answers:

1)      To what extent can Arkansas limit Collin Klein’s rushing yards?

2)      The ATS will be determined by talent on the field, unless Bill Snyder’s strategically dominant prowess can beat the odds once more this season; Can Snyder out-coach Bobby Petrino in this game?

Bobby Petrino:  Petrino is the all-time best SEC (as we all know; SEC is the class of Div. 1 ball) ATS coach in SEC history (yes, he beat out Saban’s 71-53 mark rather easily—57%).  Petrino is 65-39 (69%) overall ATS, 43-27 ATS against the spread as a favorite (61.4%). Though he is only 1-4 in Bowl games ATS.  In watching Petrino over the years, I think he is one of those coaches who pays attention to the lines and attempts to supersede the spread to sway AP polls in his teams favor, but he is certainly not one of the coaches that pulls back once he has a game in hand; he keeps his foot on the gas peddle.  Petrino is 3-3 SU in Bowl games, and he is very aware that Bowl games are the ‘red ink’ on his coaching resume, and I see him trying to replace that ink with black starting tonight.

Bill Snyder: Snyder would get my ‘Coach of the Year’ vote without a second thought about it.  He has taken a KST team that is 111^th ranked pass defense, , has a running back impersonating a QB, a run offense that ranks 10^th in the country simply b/c their Klein (QB) has 1099 rushing yards (but only 3.8 ypa) to lead the team (John Hubert is second in rushing with 933, and averaging 5.0 per), the next rusher on KSU is too far behind in attempts/yards to even discuss here.  In short, all Snyder has is a QB that will run on just about any team; the QB option (run) is the only thing a team has to stop to beat KSU.  With this team of non-stars, he has pulled out a 10-2 SU record vs a fairly tough schedule……… Coach of the Year; hands down.

KSU:  KSU will run 6.5 of every 10 offensive plays, and over half of those plays will be QB Collin Klein running, but he has only averaged 3.8 (for the season) per run.  2.9 plays of 10 Klein will pass for an average of 6.95 per attempt.  So, you have one guy on this offense who will either run, or pass 63% of the time.  The Ark. Defensive focus needs to be massively focused on Klein, but how well will they be able to contain him?

Arkansas:  ARK has allowed a whopping 182 yards per game on the ground, but has improved greatly in its last 3 games (including giving up 286 to LSU in it’s season finale) including holding miss St. to only 2.6 ypa.  All in all, Ark has a questionable run D, which KSU will hope to take advantage of.  I wonder how KSU will fair ATS in this one because of their clear lack of confidence in their passing game.  Even getting annihilated by Oklahoma in the 2^nd half, Snyder continued to run run run, no matter how futile the effort apparently was.  Although Ark was beaten this season only by the (arguably) top 2 teams in the country (LSU and Roll Tide), AND those two teams are run heavy teams (as is KSU), the big difference is they are also the #1 and #6 teams in rushing defense, and #1 and #7 in pass defense,  while KSU is ranked 49^th in rushing yards allowed, and 111^th in passing yards allowed (pretty big disparity).  ARK lost ATS 5 times this season, but vs. visiting teams they are 7-1 ATS this season (though this is not a home game for ARK, it is about 33% closer for ARK fans to travel to).  Of the 5 teams that beat ARK ATS this season: 4 of 5 were in the top 20 in passing yds allowed in the nation.  It appears there is a commonality of teams that have won ATS vs ARK; they are either highly ranked in passing D, or they are highly ranked in passing Offense:  Roll Tide (1^st in passing D) , LSU (7^th in passing D),  Vandy (15^th in passing D),  Mississippi (20^th in passing D, and Troy (17^th in passing O)… any/all teams that are not ranked in the top 20 in Passing O, or D, Arkansas has beaten the spread by a combined total of 86.5 pts, or an average of beating the spread by 12.5 pts.  It is also interesting to note the Arkansas vs teams not playing in the opposing team’s home stadium (Ark is 7-1 ATS… though KSU is 5-0 ATS away from Bill Snyder stadium)

My thread with all plays and write up is @ https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101229669

Summary:

Both these teams are historically bad in bowl games; ARK is 12-23-1 SU, and 8-16 ATS.  KSU is 6-8 SU, and 4-10 ATS, but this matchup tends to tell a deeper story in my opinion.  You have Bobby Petrino with substantially better talent than Snyder does in this one.  Snyder needs to win this turnover margin tonight, or he has little chance.  KSU will try to run Klein, and Petrino knows it.  ARK’s entire injury list is made up of RB’s, but ARK is going to attack KSU’s weak pass D all night, and they will strike fast and often.  KSU will stay the course in the slow running attack no matter the score/time on clock—they really have no choice to do anything else.  KSU is not lucky, they have a 10-2 record because they have an HC that has simply outsmarted his competition over and over, but with a month to plan/prepare I think Petrino has had ample time to focus his boys on containing Klein, and forcing KSU to get/stay behind and stay there, or break the mold and attempt a passing game (which will meet devastating opposition). 

Score:

Arkansas 51  KSU 28

I locked this side in @ -7.5 yesterday  for 6.6 U’s

Jumping on the Over 65 for 2 U’s as well

Nice write-up.  One clarification - Petrino's 65-39 ATS record is his entire coaching ATS record.  He's only been at Arkansas for 4 years.  He spent 4 years at Louisville, I believe - the Big East, a horrible football conference.

I'm betting small on K-St.