CONSPIRACY THEORY ON TEAMS THAT WILL COVER ON BOWL GAMES

Forum: College Football
Author: [College Football] Topic: CONSPIRACY THEORY ON TEAMS THAT WILL COVER ON BOWL GAMES
Addicted4Gamble PM Addicted4Gamble
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Posted: 12/30/2011 3:57:00 AM
  Just because I don't have 10k post or had an account with Covers for more then a decade dosent necessarily mean I pull my pick out of my behind.  I don't post my picks as soon as some of the solid Cappers post their picks.  You can cap all the game you want and write up all the fancy thread to your picks, but when it comes down to it, do you know which game Vegas has?  Sometimes Odds Makers makes a mistakes and tries to cover it up by moving the lines around as if sharps are hitting it hard. P ssh.  Sharps?  No such thing.  I think of Sharps as bad bettors with high roller status.  Lets see how I do with my first card .

 Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-4 SU 8-4 ATS) vs. Iowa State Cyclones (6-6 SU 7-5 ATS) 
Point Spread: RUTG -1.5/ISU +1
Over/Under Total: 44.5
30% of the public is on Rutgers.

 I will be on Iowa State only because they took advantage of Oklahoma State while they where suffering from depression and showed a big team that little dogs can bark too.  I hope Iowa defense comes out big and give some key turn over that will decide the game.  
Pick Iowa State +1 
60% confidence will cover

Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS) vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS)
Point Spread: Miss. St. -6.5/WF +6.5
Over/Under Total: 48
26% of the public is on Wake Forest 


  Bulldogs had a tough schedule.  Ballard will run up Demons behind all day.  Demons couldnt stop Zac from Vandi losing in a blow out.  I see the same thing happening and a Deja Vu all over again for Wake Forest.  This will  be the confidence Vegas Odds Makers give to the public so their biggest public play would be on Oklahoma.
Pick Mississippi minus the points
75% confidence will cover


Addicted4Gamble PM Addicted4Gamble
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Posted: 12/30/2011 3:57:36 AM
BYU Cougars (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS)
Point Spread: Brigham Young -2.5/Tulsa +2.5
Over/Under Total: 55.5
even public wager

  Tulsa is well balance and playing better in the past couple games.
Pick Tulsa +2.5
55.9% confidence will cover

Insight Bowl: Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) vs. No. 19 Oklahoma Sooners (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Point Spread: IA +13.5/OKL -13.5
Over/Under Total: 58
35% of public is on Iowa

  Cant go wrong with double digit dog against the public as Oklahoma is getting the love.   Vegas banks on Oklahoma backers.
Pick Iowa Hawkeyes plus points
90% confidence will cover

  The trend that has been working for me is that I place a flat bet on first half totals.  I place it on the Under play first half.  So far its 6-2ats in Bowl games.

  Who ever picks my plays are jocking my sharp picks and nobody in this world can have the same picks as me!
The.Ice.Man PM The.Ice.Man
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Posted: 12/30/2011 9:22:27 AM

Some interesting stuff ...... Good luck to you with the rest of the bowl season.

Cubs07 PM Cubs07
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Posted: 12/30/2011 9:27:24 AM
GL
Augustus1 PM Augustus1
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Posted: 12/30/2011 9:28:17 AM
The.Ice.Man PM The.Ice.Man
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Posted: 12/30/2011 9:31:29 AM
 I take it you got Tulsa +2.5 way back in mid Dec. ? ..... have not seen that # for some time now ?.... 
Cooler999 PM Cooler999
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Posted: 12/30/2011 9:44:13 AM
You have now added more great information and opinions.  Thanks for sharing.  This is the way covers is supposed to work.  Now buckle your seat belt and get ready for the haters.

GL with your choices A4G
horseshoe PM horseshoe
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Posted: 12/30/2011 9:45:04 AM
Addicted4Gamble,
Pick Tulsa +2.5
55.9% confidence will cover. Liking the Tulsa pick but as of now I'm -1.5.   What's your take on that?  Does that increase your confidence level?  Just gathering info if you don't mind giving your opinion on this.  Thanks in advance.
Crusher13 PM Crusher13
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Posted: 12/30/2011 9:51:19 AM
[Quote: Originally Posted by Cooler999] You have now added more great information and opinions.  Thanks for sharing.  This is the way covers is supposed to work.  Now buckle your seat belt and get ready for the haters.

GL with your choices A4G 

kaponofor3 PM kaponofor3
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Posted: 12/30/2011 9:56:02 AM
"Sharps?  No such thing.  I think of Sharps as bad bettors with high roller status"

Oh boy
 

catmancan PM catmancan
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Posted: 12/30/2011 10:16:35 AM
thanks for the fades
LonghornHoosier PM LonghornHoosier
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Posted: 12/30/2011 10:19:41 AM

that's a nice technical analysis...

however, i think Oklahoma, despite the public love, will TCB today...

its interesting on how the word sharp is utilized...it seems to be sharps claim to be those who are against the public...i would call those contrarians...often they are correct...my definitin of a sharp is one who is one who's analytical and fundamental model on wagering succeeds despite whether or not the public is on a team...i guess you could throw in teh term "brain" for the computer geeks.    in my opinion sharp does not mean "against the public trend"...

catmancan PM catmancan
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Posted: 12/30/2011 10:19:53 AM
Where'd you get your lines USA today?  Your dog picks are like 3 pts off ofcourse...in your favor.  fade
The.Ice.Man PM The.Ice.Man
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Posted: 12/30/2011 10:19:54 AM

kaponofor3   How bout we all just disregard that part and take any positives you may find in his post !.... Happy New year to all !!     

sabia PM sabia
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Posted: 12/30/2011 10:47:27 AM
Addicted4Gamble PM Addicted4Gamble
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Posted: 12/31/2011 5:50:04 AM
AM I TURNING INTO A FADE MATERIAL?  EITHER WAY SOMEBODY IS BENEFITING.

MY SAT PICK BOWL GAMES

NO MORE EXPLAINING....TIRED OF THIS BULLSHIT BACK DOOR garbage!!  BUT IM SOLID ON SECOND HALF BETS..


Texas A&M Aggies -9.5  52.5% confidence cover
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -2  55% confidence cover
UCLA Bruins +2.5  77$ confidence cover
Vanderbilt Commodores-1.5  99.99% confidence cover
Virginia Cavaliers+3  60% confidence cover
Daran.T PM Daran.T
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Posted: 12/31/2011 5:57:47 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Addicted4Gamble:


  Cant go wrong with double digit dog against the public as Oklahoma is getting the love.   Vegas banks on Oklahoma backers.
Pick Iowa Hawkeyes plus points
90% confidence will cover

 I'd change your analysis on your 90%+ confidence.  0-1 for you on your posted plays so far.
joneugene PM joneugene
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Posted: 12/31/2011 7:10:26 AM
backdoors like crazy today... your card for tomorrow is opposite of most of the good cappers on here fyi.. besides vandy
Hoyasaxa PM Hoyasaxa
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Posted: 12/31/2011 7:49:46 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

that's a nice technical analysis...

however, i think Oklahoma, despite the public love, will TCB today...

its interesting on how the word sharp is utilized...it seems to be sharps claim to be those who are against the public...i would call those contrarians...often they are correct...my definitin of a sharp is one who is one who's analytical and fundamental model on wagering succeeds despite whether or not the public is on a team...i guess you could throw in teh term "brain" for the computer geeks.    in my opinion sharp does not mean "against the public trend"...

Exactly-sharps look for value. They will fade the public when the hype exceeds reality and a low profile team is getting no love but sometimes the public isn't wrong and they just want to make the right play...I fade the public when it's a popular team vs. and ugly team...New England vs. the Rams in the Superbowl sound familiar? 16 point dogs that played them close in the reg. season vs. the greatest show on earth-how'd that work out?
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