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Author: [College Football] Topic: Bowl Picks
thorpe send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 12/5/2011 6:44:09 PM

Las Vegas Bowl - Boise vs Arizona St

My line:  Boise  -17
Vegas Line Boise -13
Pleaser to 19.5, 20.5, 22.5

Pick:  This is a top spread play and also will be used in pleasers.  If Arizona St gives up Boise can easily win by 24+

Morale:
I have not seen Boise not give a good effort in the last 8 years.  I think they'll want to win Kellen Moore's last game and set an almost unreakable mark for career wins by a QB.

ASU has maybe the worst intangibles of any team this bowl year.  Plenty of guys looking out for themselves thinking they are NFL draft picks. 

On the field
Boise is a disciplined team.  ASU was undisciplined before their coach was fired, so they are just the kind of team Boise can hammer.  Osweiler has a big arm and he could backdoor Boise if he can throw for 375+ without interceptions.  Kellen Moore is auditioning for a legit chance of being a top 10 pick.

Result
Arizona State will wish they declined this bowl invite.  There is a chance that Osweiler has a big game or Boise completely lays an egg, but there are no sure things in gambling.  Arizona St lost at home to Cal, and Cal made it look easy.  If you know how bad a team Cal is on the road, then you know that Boise under 2 TDs is a great bet IMO.

Military Bowl - Air Force vs Toledo

Vegas Line:   Air Force +2
My Line :  Air Force -3.5

Pick:  Medium Play on Air Force. 
Pleaser to AF -5.5

Morale
The nice thing about betting a service academy is that they will almost always give a good effort.  I expect Air Force will have excellent morale in the Military bowl and it will be a measure of pride for them to defend the Military Bowl from the MAC

Toledo will give an excellent effort but I think they are most focused on winning the MAC and they will be dissapointed that they let slip away this year

On the field
I expect Toledo to move the ball but I also expect Toledo to turn the ball over and to have trouble stopping the option.

Result
Should be an entertaining game.  If Toledo's offense clicks, Air Force will be in big trouble, but I think the option will wear down Toledo in the second half, and I always fade the MAC in bowls
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Posted: 12/5/2011 7:09:03 PM
Great point about Boise. I think they won their games after the TCU debacle pretty handily. 
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Posted: 12/5/2011 7:11:12 PM
Nice write ups
Posted using a mobile device.
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#4
Posted: 12/5/2011 7:18:26 PM
I Love Boise St ..... on it for $330 right off the Muscle !!!!! should add more ....


Might be My Biggest play for the Bowl season (u could be screwed) 
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Posted: 12/5/2011 7:30:05 PM
Kraft Bowl - UCLA vs Illinois

Vegas Line:  UCLA +2.5
My Line:  UCLA -3

Pick:  Medium Play on UCLA

Morale:

UCLA fired its coach, and Illinois is on a 6 game losing streak.  I did not see UCLA give up all year.  Illinois may have quit.  Playing San Francisco favors UCLA because that is easy travel.

On the field
The teams are very even talentwise and in terms of what they are trying to do, which is establish the run and work in a few WR screens and an occasional deep ball.  Both teams run the QB a lot.

Result
I think UCLA wins this game pretty comfortably.  But it is hard to go big on UCLA because they can not overcome even a small 14 point deficit.  I may be wrong about UCLA not quitting, that kind of thing is tough to determine.
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Posted: 12/5/2011 7:32:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

I Love Boise St ..... on it for $330 right off the Muscle !!!!! should add more ....


Might be My Biggest play for the Bowl season (u could be screwed) 



We have to think positively about Bowl Season. 

Check your PM. 
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Posted: 12/6/2011 8:24:24 PM
Texas Bowl - Northwestern vs A & M

Vegas Line:  A & M -11, now -9 and -10
My Line:  NW +6.5

Pick:  "Wheel" Play on Northwestern plus the points,  NW -3.5, +3.5, +7.5, ML, also like NW +10 parlayed to the Over.

Morale:

A & M is in a massive freefall.  The only team they beat since Oct 23 is Kansas.  A & M will be cleaning house and entering the SEC NY.

Northwestern went into a huge funk upon losing at Army.  It took playing Indiana to take them out of it, then they were a much better team the second half of the year.  Persa is a bigtime QB at Northwestern, and NW has played good in a Bowl game 3 straight years.

On the field
A & M has a lot of talent at the skill positions,  but I expect them their timing to be off due to all the distraction. A & M can score a lot of points, but that is usually when their defense is giving up 50 points.

NW is going to play tough defense.  Persa could throw for 250 and run for 125 and I expect NW to convert on 3rd down.

Result

NW never gets respect in the Bowl game.  I give NW a better than 50% chance to win this game outright.  A & M is a team I am looking to fade, and NW is very consistent in Bowl games.  The last 3 years as big dogs, they took 2 games to OT and LY played a tight game with Tex Tech.  NW will probably let A & M back into the game and lose by 3.

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#8
Posted: 12/6/2011 9:02:43 PM
yeah I agree with the Northwestern play as well

Why would A&M be "up for this game ???
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#9
Posted: 12/6/2011 10:21:18 PM
damn fine work Thorpe...

gotta like Boise to kill Zona St....
   * Moore shunned by Heisman totally (off maybe his best year wtf)....pissed off Peterson will have no need to call off dogs here.....and "reward" Moore with massive day ....in his last game

NW most motivated of all bowl teams?....last bowl win slightly after WW ll.......yikes

hey Thorpe....see any "advantage" Luck has over RG3 in Heisman voting?.......
*double-dog dare ya to get that one started.............
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#10
Posted: 12/7/2011 10:33:19 AM

 I did not see UCLA give up all year 

You must have been washing your hair or watching Eat, Pray, Love during the Bruins' little visit to Tucson.    I think even my wife walked through the living room and said "who's that team in white?  Looks like they've just given up."  This, of course, we still early in the first quarter. 

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#11
Posted: 12/7/2011 10:45:09 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MaineRoad:

 I did not see UCLA give up all year 

You must have been washing your hair or watching Eat, Pray, Love during the Bruins' little visit to Tucson.    I think even my wife walked through the living room and said "who's that team in white?  Looks like they've just given up."  This, of course, we still early in the first quarter. 



yeah Thorpe's very dry sense of humor will kinda sneak up on ya at times....but I think he was serious..
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#12
Posted: 12/7/2011 10:53:23 AM
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#13
Posted: 12/7/2011 11:16:47 AM
[Quote: Originally Posted by MaineRoad]

 I did not see UCLA give up all year 

You must have been washing your hair or watching Eat, Pray, Love during the Bruins' little visit to Tucson.    I think even my wife walked through the living room and said "who's that team in white?  Looks like they've just given up."  This, of course, we still early in the first quarter.  YEAH UCLA Gave up way early in the season! Every one knew rick was gone half way in the only reason ucla coverec against oregon was it was swan song! Looking for wiscy 2 beat the ducks in the rose bowl! In a high scoring affair!

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Posted: 12/7/2011 11:45:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MaineRoad:

 I did not see UCLA give up all year 

You must have been washing your hair or watching Eat, Pray, Love during the Bruins' little visit to Tucson.    I think even my wife walked through the living room and said "who's that team in white?  Looks like they've just given up."  This, of course, we still early in the first quarter. 



They were outclassed in some games, and they do not have the offense to catch up when they fall behind.   I'll give you that, but this team is going to give a better effort in this bowl than their opponent, IMO.  Illinois flat-out quit.
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Posted: 12/7/2011 11:47:11 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

damn fine work

hey Thorpe....see any "advantage" Luck has over RG3 in Heisman voting?.......
*double-dog dare ya to get that one started.............


RG3 has the Heisman locked up.  Luck has no edge whatsoever.  It used to be the white QB had the trophy locked up (Gino Toretta over Faulk), but now they want to give it to the QB that can run and throw, and win games, and that guy is RG3 this year.
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Posted: 12/7/2011 11:55:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bookieassassin:



yeah Thorpe's very dry sense of humor will kinda sneak up on ya at times....but I think he was serious..


I am 100% serious.  Look at my previous comment.  You can not give up and still get routed, especially when Prince and Brehaut are your QBs, and Prince gets hurt.

Here is ILLINOIS's season WWWWWWLLLLLL

Here is UCLA:  LWLWLWLWWLWLL

You can see, the only time they lost two in a row was the last two games of the year, and that was @USC and @Oregon.


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Posted: 12/7/2011 11:56:47 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

yeah I agree with the Northwestern play as well

Why would A&M be "up for this game ???


Some people will say they want to enter the SEC on a positive note.
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#18
Posted: 12/7/2011 12:02:04 PM
Luck has no edge whatsoever.

my initial thought was that ugly "advantage" was very minimal...which kinda took me by surprise...but maybe VERY naive to say it doesn't exist at all

*promise you one thing...that ugly advantage is present in a big way in other awards......like that Davey O'Brien based in Fort Worth ...if he wins the Heisman...he ain't winning that too (don't think)....even though he's an hour or so away ....my guess would be Kellen Moore
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#19
Posted: 12/7/2011 12:44:48 PM
Liberty Bowl - Vandy vs Cinci

Vegas Line:  Vandy -2
My Line:  Vandy -3

Pick:   Vandy

Morale:
Vandy is going to very exceited to be in a Bowl and to have some extra bowl practises.  Cinci was thinking BCS game a few weeks ago and the Liberty could be considered a letdown

On the field
Cinci has a new QB with Collaros injured, but that should not be a huge dropoff.  Jordan Rodgers is not his brother, but he is an average or better college QB.  Vandy is becoming more like a typical  SEC team every year (obviously they have a long way to go to catch LSU or Bama), and I think this year's team will have a big athletic edge over Cinci.

Result

I don't think Vandy is going to run away with this game, but if they make fewer mistakes than Cinci they will win this game 90%  of the time IMO.  Vandy arguably has the better QB, more athletes, better coached, and more motivated.  I want to see where this line goes...
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#20
Posted: 12/7/2011 1:38:42 PM
Vandy is the most under-rated team in college football.   
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#21
Posted: 12/7/2011 3:10:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thorpe:


Las Vegas Bowl - Boise vs Arizona St

My line:  Boise  -17
Vegas Line Boise -13
Pleaser to 19.5, 20.5, 22.5

Pick:  This is a top spread play and also will be used in pleasers.  If Arizona St gives up Boise can easily win by 24+

Morale:
I have not seen Boise not give a good effort in the last 8 years.  I think they'll want to win Kellen Moore's last game and set an almost unreakable mark for career wins by a QB.

ASU has maybe the worst intangibles of any team this bowl year.  Plenty of guys looking out for themselves thinking they are NFL draft picks. 

On the field
Boise is a disciplined team.  ASU was undisciplined before their coach was fired, so they are just the kind of team Boise can hammer.  Osweiler has a big arm and he could backdoor Boise if he can throw for 375+ without interceptions.  Kellen Moore is auditioning for a legit chance of being a top 10 pick.

Result
Arizona State will wish they declined this bowl invite.  There is a chance that Osweiler has a big game or Boise completely lays an egg, but there are no sure things in gambling.  Arizona St lost at home to Cal, and Cal made it look easy.  If you know how bad a team Cal is on the road, then you know that Boise under 2 TDs is a great bet IMO.

Military Bowl - Air Force vs Toledo

Vegas Line:   Air Force +2
My Line :  Air Force -3.5

Pick:  Medium Play on Air Force. 
Pleaser to AF -5.5

Morale
The nice thing about betting a service academy is that they will almost always give a good effort.  I expect Air Force will have excellent morale in the Military bowl and it will be a measure of pride for them to defend the Military Bowl from the MAC

Toledo will give an excellent effort but I think they are most focused on winning the MAC and they will be dissapointed that they let slip away this year

On the field
I expect Toledo to move the ball but I also expect Toledo to turn the ball over and to have trouble stopping the option.

Result
Should be an entertaining game.  If Toledo's offense clicks, Air Force will be in big trouble, but I think the option will wear down Toledo in the second half, and I always fade the MAC in bowls


watch out that Troy Calhoun may be hired at A&M this week...........betcha he gets it
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#22
Posted: 12/7/2011 3:39:55 PM
Boise State might be the best play on the board in the early bowl prior to Christmas,
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#23
Posted: 12/7/2011 3:41:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MaineRoad:

Vandy is the most under-rated team in college football.   
'
Agree

maybe the Win the BIG East of they were in there 

Franklin is in my top 3 for Coach of the year
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#24
Posted: 12/7/2011 5:11:48 PM
Like Toledo...they only give up 124 yds a game rushing...
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#25
Posted: 12/7/2011 8:54:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bookieassassin:



watch out that Troy Calhoun may be hired at A&M this week...........betcha he gets it


That would be a ballsy hire, but I would assume he would not run the option, because he didn't want to run it at AF, but had no choice.

I don't think losing their coach would affect AF as much as it would other teams.
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