Texas / TAMU

haven't seen too many people liking Texas around these parts...

clearly, injuries have given Texas problems this year, but looking at their week-by-week performance, they are really no less impressive than Tx A&M...

add to the fact that A&M has shown their great weakness (coaching) almost every single game this season... they consistently fail to live up to expectations... blow 2nd half leads... they have been one of the best teams to fade all year long...

and now they are laying 8 points to their arch rival on Thanksgiving with the short week...


let's take a look at this series over the past 25 years...

• Underdog is 13-11-1 ATS
• Dog of more than 7 points is 8-6 ATS
• Texas is 3-2 ATS when getting more than 7 points
• Tx A&M has won by more than 7 points 9 out of 25 meetings

not much to get excited about there... but let's look at the last 15 years, when there was a clear shift in power in this series...

• Texas has won 12 out of 15 meetings SU
• Texas is 9-6 ATS
• Texas is 2-0 SU and ATS as a dog
• Tx A&M has won by more than a TD 1 time in the past 15 years
• Tx A&M has won by more than 8 pts (current spread) 0 times in the past 15 years
• Average score in the past 15 meetings:  Texas 32 TAMU 19

and honestly, when i break both teams down opponent by opponent, i see nothing to give A&M more than maybe a 1 pt edge, plus a couple at most for homefield in this game... spread on this game should be no more than 3, even if you disregard Texas' recent domination...

liking Texas quite a bit tomorrow... maybe even ML... if there is any team you can count on finding a way to lose a game (other than Hawaii, maybe)... it's Texas A&M...

from what i can tell, A&M's most impressive win this year was against Baylor at home... or else Tx Tech on the road...

they have not beat a physical football team this year, and none of the teams they have beat rank in my top 40... none of them should rank in anybody's top 30, in my opinion... Baylor and Texas Tech are bad football teams!

UT ML........

The line is certainly a head-scratcher.  Seems awfully high to me.  For me it'll be Tejas or nothing - most likely nothing.

 

that's where i'm at now... was figuring on not betting this game, but after looking into it a bit i'm leaning towards pulling the trigger on Texas... doubt i am going to get 8.5, though, like i was hoping for...

what's this....the nation's most extreme fundamental handicapper mentioning situational/technical aspects?...

not a bad idea...this game should come down to last possession.... remember Aggs are the team leaving (Big 12)....so although Texas the REAL bully...maybe a little extra chip on Texas' shoulder.....usually Aggs hate Texas much more than reverse (Horns are main focus of Aggie fight song).....Texas not so much....as their main rival is actually  OU

key here will be availability of Agg RB Cyrus Gray (223 yds/2 TD....LY vs Horns..."slight" fracture in right shoulder....game-time of course....but most seem to feel he is VERY doubtful...he can't go then 3rd tm guy comes in (recall C. Michael OFY)

BAD match-up for both teams.....unfortunately for Horns....Aggs very tough vs run.....especially at home
holding conf. opponents to an av. of 2 yards per carry under their average....only Mizzou ran well....

Aggs throw/protect well.....but Horns can bring heat.....and #6 in pass D (from Steele....with strength of pass O faced factored in).....Horns are the only FBS team that has not allowed a pass over 20 yards......so Aggs will have difficulty moving it ....esp if Gray can't go

Horn O yes has been really bad as of late....due to poor QB play from true Fr Ash..and top 3 RBs being out ....or playing at 75% or so.....here switch (should) be made to Soph  Case McCoy.....evidently bad practice guy with lotta attitude ....which is what got him in Mack's doghouse to begin with.....earlier in the year supposedly refused to go in a game late.....so benching was maybe more for that....than Ash being better.....true Fr RBs Brown and Bergeron still not 100%....(Whittaker OFY).....but much healthier than before...I would imagine combo of grind it out attack + a trick play (every series )  + Aggie screw-ups......allows Horns to stay in game.....
    *problem?....Aggs can bring heat....(#7 in TFL and #1 ?..or so in sacks).....Horns just OK protection wise

Horns + 8 not bad.....I would be shocked if they get blown out here.....but dicey because WAY too many TRUE freshmen in key spots.....total of 54 seems inflated (Aggie games very high scoring)......so UNDER maybe best way to go...or maybe Aggie TT UNDER 30'....
small .....for the hellofit teaser.....Horns +14/Under 60 should hit....

best of luck ICE..........

forgot.....weather should be fine....
grass field......clear to partly cloudy in the low 50's
winds 5-10......

Aggs have covered 5 of last 6 ....at home vs Horns

Texas has alot of injuries I like them at +8 but will probably stay away I do like the under though

some great points, there, Book!


one point i haven't discussed... i keep seeing people who like Tx A&M for all these motivational reasons... the fact they hate Texas' TV contract... the fact they want to spank Texas before leaving the Big 12...

that is all complete nonsense!  how does it matter if Tx A&M wants to beat Texas by 50?  i'm 100% sure Tx A&M came into every single matchup in this rivalry wanting to win by 50, and i'm 100% sure Texas came into every single matchup in this rivalry wanting to win by 50... it is as moot as a point can get!

on top of that, Texas has plenty of motivation (as if they needed ANY!) to get up for this game... for starters, if they win, they get a better Bowl game than Tx A&M... since this is the last matchup in this rivalry, the winner gets ETERNAL BRAGGING RIGHTS and gets to use that as a recruiting tool within the state... FOREVER!

you really think Tx A&M wants to win this game even an ounce more than Texas does?  NO!  they don't... both teams want this game about as bad as you could want it... that's what intense rivalries are about...

yes... but they were dogs in all 6 of those...

and yea, Book, i agree that the total is too high... i don't make it a habit of playing both the side and total in a game though...


i decided to go with a 2-team teaser...

Texas (+14.5)
Stanford (-0.5)


just don't want to get burned by some last minute bullshit TD that makes it a 10 point game... Stanford winning SU is about as easy as it gets...

yeah that last minute pick 6....as Texas tries to come back.....a ball buster for sure

Aggs have key DB's injured..playing hurt most likely
and Aggs don't force many TO's....only 13 in 11 games (#105).....with only 6 INT's

Texas much better TY...after LY's disaster....losing 18 (#49)

IMO... betting on this game is like flipping a damn coin. Why? Both teams have major issues...

I say all the time about games like these...why? Why choose this game to bet on. Hell bet the total if anything. But to say anyone knows that either this or that will happen in this game is crazy...Both teams are about as night and day as any teams I have ever seen.

Half the battle in gambling isnt just picking the right side. It's picking the more favorable games to gamble on.

Texas + the points is the way to go

Boom, you hit the nail on the head.  This is a game not worth betting on.  Is A&M going to blow a second half lead?  Is the Longhorn QB going to look like he couldn't even play in the MAC?  Both are possible.  I think you would be hard pressed to find two bigger underachievers this season.  I guess in theory the Horns could still finish 8-4, but I don't think they beat Baylor, so best case, they are 7-5.  Best case for us obviously also is 7-5.

come on, Boom... you're preaching to the choir here... i am one of the more selective players on this forum... my first reaction was to stay away from this game... i generally do not get interested in weekday games...

but as i looked at it, and partly because i know the general history of this series, i started to realize there is only one side you can make a case for... and when that is the case, i get interested...

as you can see, i am not sold on it enough to do anything other than a teaser... but in either case, i don't throw my money on a game just to have action...

i capped the game and i bet it because, upon further review, it is worthy of betting!  nuff said!

Ice- Just out of curiousity where did you get that stat that Texas has won 12 of the last 15?  Just curious as that is not correct.  Not a big deal, but just thought I would mention it.

Are you saying Texas is the play but only good enough for a teaser? Hmmm. Maybe than you shouldn't play it at all. Just my two cents.

 Texas will cover 70%

im not knocking you for making a play on this game I m just saying that IMO, there is just too much unknown.

i assume by that logic you are saying that nobody should ever play a 2-team teaser?  i have already made a few straight bets this week... i consider Stanford (-0.5) to be about as close to a sure thing as i can get on a teaser, so being able to get that line up over 14, to me, was the best play that could be made on this game...

i still like Tex +8... but i like this teaser even better...

i understand... at this time of year, there is always too much unknown... all i can do is look for as many favorable angles as possible, against as few unfavorable angles as possible... imo, this game fits the bill enough to warrant a wager of some sort...

Mistress people like you play teasers because they don't like the number and want to bring it up or down. I think if you don't think a straight bet is good than don't play it at all. If you like a straight bet than doing a teaser is even better or atleast justified.i personally don't do teasers. Open pars every once in awhile.

Most people. Lol posting from a phone is pure pain in the butt

why the fuck do people with 17 posts come in here trying to lecture me on the fundamentals of sports betting?

i know what i'm doing, and i bet 2-team teasers about once a week, because i make money playing them... there are certain games where getting an extra 6 points turns a 70% proposition into about a 95% proposition... when that is the case, a teaser is better than a straight bet...

thanks anyway...