"Oregon is an average passing team"

--Monte Kiffin.

11/13/2011

end quote.

Who am I to disagree with one of the gurus of defense, NFL or college. His stated goal is to try to make Oregon one dimensional, and to blitz at the appropriate times.

If we pause to look at the college FB landscape for a moment, we see that very few passing teams are there. Oklahoma STtae remains in the mix for the NC.

Stanford and Boise had argueably the top passers and finesse passing games with fleet receivers and so on; they are both out.

Kiffin went on to add that Oregon is an "option team; they do finesse blocking, or even do not block you at all."

I feel Oregon has played the NC in reverse. They played LSU in a "Bowl-like" atmosphere, and once again unable to throw effectively in key situations, and SEC speed bothered and disrupted their offense. They failed to take the game to LSU and played on their heels and fumbled late in the game so the offense couldn't go to work anyway.

This is the first Kiffin-esque team to face Oregon in Eugene under the lights. A tremendous challenge and one they obviously look forward to.

What are your takes on this matchup? What am I missing in terms of ingredients for a close game and upset?

My early lean is that Oregon will take its time before finding a seam to exploit. I don't believe Oregon can throw either, and will try to find misdirection options to string together run plays effectively.

I believe running teams are more effective because offensive linemen become consumed with pass blocking; offenses  create a "self-destructive psyche" trying to win every game with the pass.

The attitude is helping Oregon destroy the PAC 10 (12), but they (Ducks) do not have (so far) an answer for the pursuit speed of a top echelon SEC defense, and the physicality of their linemen.

I see a close game early, and an exagerrated line for the Ducks has to be expected. Taking USC early is a move any gambler should exploit. Watch the flow of the game, and anticipate an Oregon blowout wiin late as they take advantage of USC's redzone mistakes. Hard not to like USC to keep this one close.

Anyone have a guess as to the line? My guess is Oregon -10 (?)

Futures:

STANFORD will destroy both CAL and ND.

Oklahoma will dismantle Okie State and thereby change the New Year's Day invitations. Don't count on Okie St people. Custard's Last Stand for a passing team.

If Arky could SOMEHOW pull off the very unlikely upset in Baton Rouge, Alabama gets in. Alabama vs Oklahoma could be the scenario, should the Ducks falter. Otherwise it's Bama vs Oregon (not LSU). LSU would not be the best representative from the SEC (I'll stop there). Bama destroys Auburn in the Iron Bowl finale.

Stanford-Cal could be one of those 56-14 type games

Oregon -7.5 would be my guess- Great matchup. USC is better than most people think as they are flying under the radar for the most part. I think it will be a really good game.

Pretty much. Stanford is at home right?

WOW.

Oregon is -15

Wow--I cannot even compose myself to type this in...

 

The linesmakers (similar to Boise St game vs TCU) are tryinf to steer away heavy Oregon action (incl potential ML payouts), and THEY ARE NOT putting out a number that makes "football sense."

USC 1st H +7.5 is the first logical choice.

There is no way Oregon's O (known for coasting thru 1st quarters) does not get bothered early in this one.

WOW is all I can say.

Agreed. Oregon was one of my biggest plays of the season yesterday against Stanford, but the game against USC is a completely different animal. Aside from the "letdown" angle, this is USC's chance to derail a conference rival's national title hopes. With no postseason aspirations of their own, Kiffin's crew will be more than ready to go.

Not to mention, I doubt Darron Thomas has ever seen anythin resembling Monte's Tampa 2 scheme.

Well, I guess he did see the Tampa 2 last season, but the Trojans were pretty depleted at the time.

-15 is a bit strange...but then again you have to look into USC's linebacker situation. Alot of freshmen out there and on top of that playing in Eugene at night. Not going to be able to have checks out there...The only thing I like is the over...I wonder what the line will be?

Thinking if Stanford opened at 69....this will open at 74.

Looking at right now, both teams are surging, but this last road game had to be draining for the Ducks. Trojans are playing well right now.

That second score cushion will come late for the Ducks. Trojans do not want a long night in Eugene looking up at an early deficit.  Three score differential just is not gonna happen.

When I see something this clear, I'm a fool to just read about it in the papers.

Other leans:

Oklahoma -14

Arky -14

Rutgers +3

Iowa STate and all those points

The Sooners should put up at least 50 against that Baylor Defense

USC +15.   THIS line is outrageous

Cover 2 impacts vertical passing teams.  Oregon is not a vertical passing team, Kiffin's defense was non-existant last season.  Ducks went through them like swiss cheese.  Same happens again this year.

USC needs drives that result in scores to stay in this game.  If half their trips come up empty like Stanford did, you can forget about this one.

The meteorologists here in the state are some of the worst in the country, so I wouldn't read a lot into the snow rumors.  With that said, the weather is going to be really really nasty.  Mid to low 30s and raining.  Slight advantage for UO based on weather, but not as big an edge as is the personnel and scheme.

15 points is to much.  Vegas kissing Ducks butt here

I think they can pretty much name their score. They're still one of the elite teams this year, and may never repeat that wierd 1st H they had--looks like its behind them now.

I usually preach money management and try not to "load" up on games but i just put about 10 of my units on Oklahoma -14 and i had to buy a 1/2 pt as the line is 14.5 now. Just can't see Baylor staying in the ball game.

 

 A big advantage that both Auburn & LSU had was time to prepare..........

Completely on board with OKLA.

Disagree about Stanford.

Oregon "is" an average passing team, and that may be generous. 

USC +15 will be the easyest play on Saturday. 

I haven't watched USC enough to know the answer to my own question/statement... but the way you stop Oregon is by your defensive front/line.  That's it.  Nothing else matters... because once those backs get to the second level, it's over.

I wont be suprised is USC wins outright  

Unless what Oregon cock suckers say, well first off all , yeah Stanford got dismantled but---BUT...it was worst game of stanford in a very long time, they just kept shooting themsleves on the foot, the cardinal had a ligitimate chance to make this a close contest...any way its impossible to not get reaped if u turn the ball over 9 times---- if USC plays mistake free it will be tougher---i dont think the ducks will be in an emotional hang over, kelly has this team well focused and mentally prepared for that type of shit--- speaking of the line---i think or guess the following

as  USC played close to stanford and were 8pts dogs and loss and then oregon was 3pt dogs and rapped stanford---by a bunch--this game was  supposed to be what --- -20 Oregon --well i think not, stanford got spanked but they made a lot if not a bunch of mistakes and score is misleading --- stanford was keeping the game close until they began to shooting themselves in the foot.. so for me the line at -14.5 is set right---- beacuse if stanford on the road against USC was -8pt fave and at home against Oregon were -3.5 fave--its about right that oregon is twice as better than stanford at home but because USC gave quite a fight to stanford wich was fave over oregon, maybe the books dont feel like this will be a give me for oregon id USC plays mistake free so givin USC 17+pts will be suicide for them----its only a guess

yeah  and they were soppossed to  beat Ttech at home by more than 29 and they were supposed to destroy Kansas by 50+ also

OVERRATED

Oregon not good enough to cover 15 point spread