TCU/BYU OVER!! Huge Sharp Play!!

I don't see it that way at all.

Breakdown:

looked at this game for just a couple of minutes last night and wrote it off as a no play but I went back and looked more in depth today and believe we have a strong play. My numbers showed up at TCU -9.6 and a total of 52.5. I think we have an overvalued underdog in BYU. They have won 5 straight but they were gift wrapped a win over UCF by all the mistakes that UCF made. The next week it took a miracle to beat Utah State and since then they have beaten some pretty bad football teams. They are playing better offensively but the last two weeks they have played the 88^th and 69^th rated defenses. They scored 24 against the 4^th rated defense (UCF) but 7 of those were off a KR and another 7 off a muffed punt. They only averaged 16 PPG in their first 4 when they were playing more athletic teams like the one they will face tonight in TCU.

TCU is only 37^th in total defense but 1025 of the 2136 total yards they have given up against FBS competition were against Baylor (#2 in total offense) and SMU (#12 in passing offense). In the other 4 FBS games they are only giving up 277.75 YPG. The secondary of TCU is suspect but I don’t think BYU can exploit the weakness. BYU is 59^th in passing offense but only 83^rd in pass efficiency offense. TCU is 39^th in rush defense and gives up 3.61 YPC. BYU’s 59^th rated rush offense won’t scare the Hornfrogs.

I am not in love with backing the Hornfrogs either (but I lean that way). BYU’s defense has hung in there pretty well this year. The only time they have given up more than 28 was against Utah. That was more about the BYU offense and their 7 turnovers. BYU knows it can’t win a shootout and they will try to have a balanced attack. If this team doesn’t rush it well it will have a hard time throwing the football. TCU will want to run the football here as well because that is what they do best (18^th in NCAA). BYU is decent against the run (38^th) but TCU should have some success. I do not see a game where 60 plus passes are thrown which is always good for the under.

I think TCU is in control for much of the game and their running game will win it for them in the second half. The under is the very solid play tonight.

UNDER 56.5 TCU/BYU for 1 unit

Your system shows a spread that's 4 points lower than the actual number, so an overvalued BYU?  If BYU is getting too much love shouldn't the spread be LOWER?

Good everyone take the over..that makes me more cofident in my under pick...What offesne does byu have...this team had to rally to beat an below avg utah state team at home on national tv..

UNDER BABY!!!!!!!!!!

agree. see you at the ticket counter

3 solid overs in the last 3 games. wed night, and 2 thurs.....under is tonight

LMAO those are them !  consider this i am taking a ballsy pick in my pool ...she has the total at 54.5 i will take under and probably be the only person in a 37 man pool to take so....also i will probably be 5 of 37 to take byu... it seems so obvious to take tcu and the over ...i dont think either team has played anyone earth shattering in there wins, however i have memories of the byu outright win vs ou...the mormans are bringing a crowd to arlington...it is a nuetral site folks lets not forget this