AP - CFB Plays - Week 5

AP - CFB - Week 4 Results;

Week 1; 10-5, +7.2 Units

Week 2; 6-7, +.9 Units

Week 3; 11-10, +6.3 Units

Week 3; 14-7, +21 Units

Season; 41-29, +$3,540 (58.57%)

1 Unit Plays - 19-18, 51.35%

2 Unit Plays - 11-7, 61.11%

3 Unit Plays - 7-4, 63.64%

4 Unit Plays - 2-0, 100%

5 Unit Plays - 2-0, 100%

Sides – 30-22, +$2,350

Totals – 6-5, -$80

Teasers – 5-2, +$1,270

Week 4...   What a great week.  Glad my supposively "over valued teams/plays" proved otherwise (Cincinnati, LSU, and others.... ) 

I will post my week 5 'thoughts' tomorrow

Laroja 

cherokee10 

College Football Week 5;

9/29 – South Florida @ Pittsburgh

USF has been solid thus far starting a perfect 4-0 with notable wins over Notre Dame & Ball State.  USF QB B.J. Daniels has been excellent (82/124, 1,071 yards, 8td, 1int).  B.J Daniels is a duel threat QB and on the ground has carried the ball 39 times for 201 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Darrell Scott RB & Demetris Murray RB have also looked good.  USF WR Sterling Griffin is BJ’s favorite target with 22 catches for 248 yards and 1 td. 

Pittsburgh has signs of being a solid team but has yet to play a complete game.  Against Iowa they gave up a huge 4^th quarter come back to lose & vs Notre Dame they couldn’t capitalize on ND mistakes (there were many of them).  I’m interested in seeing what the line will be.  Pitt should be able to keep this game close, and everyone is riding high on USF.  I can see Vegas setting the line around -4.5 in favor of USF (maybe even more) if so I actually see value in taking Pitt w/ the points at home.  If Pitt puts together a complete game they will beat USF.

Predicition; 24-21 Pittsburgh gives USF its first loss of the season

(Other games I will break down)

9/29 – Baylor @ K-State

9/29 – Nebraska @ Wisconsin

9/29 – Alabama @ Florida

GL

Pittsburgh has not looked that good.

Pitt has yet to play a complete game, but they do have talent.  I was just saying I expect them to put things together at home against USF.  Vegas must have been thinking the same way.. the line opened at -3 (which I would not play).. I thought we would get +3.5 or even +4.5..  Now its the waiting game.  If this spread gets pushed to +3.5 or +4.5 I will most likely play it for 1 maybe 2 units.

Week 5 Early potential plays (My book doesn't open until 1pm tomorrow )

Georgia Tech -10.5 (big)

This team looked very good last week and should have won by 3+ touchdowns.  I was at the NC State game, they did not look too good.  Missing some key players on defense.  I will see what the line is when my book opens.

Clemson +7 (big)

Can't believe clemson is getting 7, im sure I won't get that line, i'd take clemson at 4.5

Washington +7.5

This team is talented on offense and should be able to keep things close!  I will unload if I get 7.5.. not sure I will get that good of a line though.

Boise St -27.5 (big)

Revenge game baby!  Boise wins this game by 40 points! 

Auburn +11.5

No way I get 11.5.. but if i do that would be sweet.  11.5 is basically a gift!!!

Texas -10

ISU won't be able to keep up with Texas, enough said.

Cincinnati -14

This team is so talented in offense, and their defense looked great last week.  Cincy should get a lead and keep it.

Baylor -3.5

Miami helped us out last week... Kstate played great, but I think Baylors offense will be too much.  Hopefully we can get -3 but I don't see that happening.  If the line goes higher I might have to avoid this one.

Ball State +38

Ball St will be able to put up atleast 17 points in this game (7 in the first half and atleast 10 in the 2nd when the scrubs are in).. Which means OU will have to score atleast 56 or more.  This will only be a 1 unit play, but I see Ball st keeping it within 35 points, or even back dooring it late.

Miss St +7.5

The 'sharps' must have jumped all over Georgia early (was -4.5).. But I like Miss St in this match up.  I like this at -7.5 for 1 unit, Miss St should be able to keep things close.

AP (CFB: 41-29, +35.40 Units)

sportsfan54 

jshep  - Thanks for the input.  I will have to look into that clemson game a little more.  I was just very impressed with there offense against a "top 5" Fla state defense... if it was 4.5 id probably avoid.. but 7.. That is definately worth a unit =)

GL ALL

sportschat 

SportsFreak69 

AP – CFB Week 5 – Official Plays ;

9/29, 7:00PM, Pittsburgh +3, 1 UNIT

10/1, 11:00AM, Miss St +7, 1 UNIT

10/1, 11:00AM, Kansas +7, 2 UNITS

10/1, 11:00AM, Rutgers +3, 3 UNITS

10/1, 12:00PM, Cincinnati -14, 1 UNIT

10/1, 1:30PM, Boise St -27.5, 2 UNITS

10/1, 2:30PM, Colorado -3, 1 UNIT

10/1, 2:30PM, Western Michigan +3, 1 UNIT

10/1, 2:30PM, Georgia Tech -11.5, 2 UNITS

10/1, 2:30PM, Arizona +13.5, 3 UNITS

10/1, 2:30PM, Auburn +10.5, 1 UNIT

10/1, 5:00PM, Clemson +7, 2 UNITS

10/1, 6:00PM, Washington +7.5, 2 UNITS

10/1, 6:00PM, Ball State +37.5, 1 UNIT

10/1, 6:00PM, Texas -9.5, 2 UNITS

10/1, 7:00PM, Alabama -4.5, 4 UNITS

10/1, 7:00PM, Nebraska +10, 2 UNITS

*** Working on a Nebraska write-up - I know everyone is trashing this team but I know Nebr has the ability to keep this game close ***

AP

Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-0)

First, let’s take a look at how many times Nebraska has lost by more than 10 points under Bo.  Since 2008, Bo has coached Nebraska in 45 games & has lost by more than 10 points only four times. 

Pelini is a defensive mastermind; coached defensive backs for the Pats in the late 90s, linebackers coach for the Packers in 2000, helped Oklahoma & LSU become one of the top defensive teams in the country (during his time at each of these schools), and finally takes over the head coaching duties at Nebraska inheriting a 56^th ranked defense and a losing Husker football team.  In 2008, Pelini goes 9-4, improving drastically on the defensive side of the ball.  In 2009, Nebraska ranked in the top 5 in the majority of the main defensive statistics.  The point I am making is that Bo is a defensive mastermind, and has been developing a plan since the beginning of spring training on stopping this Wisconsin team (First big 10 game.. obviously he has been thinking about it for some time).   

Cornhusker Defense (7 returning starters from last season)

DE, Jr Cameron Meredith (6-5, 260), DT, Jr Baker Steinkuhler (6-6, 290), DT, Sr Jared Crick (6-6, 285), and DE, Jr Josh Williams (6-4, 290).  All of these guys are big and very good, but the two who are the difference makers are Crick & Meredith.  Meredith is having a breakthrough year (17 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 int).  The line backers are led by senior MLB Lavonte David, and the defensive backs are led by seniors Alfonzo Dennard** and Austin Cassidy.

Cornhusker Offense (7 returning starters from last season)

QB, So Taylor Martinez (43/85 for 647yards,4tds,2ints, 63carries for 421yards, 7tds), IB, Sr Rex Burkhead (63carries for 420yards, 6.7avg 52long).  Freshmen RBs Braylon Heard and Aaron Green are also solid backups (but are still freshmen).  WR, Sr Brandon Kinnie, WR Jamal Turner (Freshmen but this guy is an allstar in the making), Quincy Enunwa (Sophmore, very talented receiver).  Freshmen Ameer Abdullah, this guy is fast and explosive.  He is the difference maker on special teams (8 kick returns for 340 yards and 1 TD, 13 punt returns, 96 yards, 28long).   

Overall thoughts

Nebraska is constantly judged and compared to the dominate teams in the 90s which rolled over anyone/anywhere.  This year everyone is already trashing Nebraska through four games because they have ‘struggled’ on defense.  I think our defense is sound with a few soft spots (backfield.. up front Nebraska is very good).  Nebraska’s main weakness has been there inefficiencies on offense and being prone to stupid turnovers/mistakes.  Nebraska has been very impressive in the second half of every game this season.  The coaches obviously know exactly what to say and what adjustments to make.  With 7 returners on each side of the ball and a bunch of talented young players, I think a well prepared – mistake free Nebraska team can beat Wisconsin. 

Wisconsin is a very good team & I have already given an analysis of them earlier in the season.  They have rolled over all the pancake teams they have played, and now they play Nebraska.  Sure, in my pick’em pool (straightup) I picked them to win, but I think Nebraska keeps it closer than everyone thinks.  I want to see how Russsell acts when under pressure.  Meredith, Crick, and Steinkuhler will be able to apply pressure.  If Dennard & David can have big games and cause turnovers, Nebraska has a legitimate shot at winning.  Also, Martinez needs to have a mistake free game as well.  3n out’s are fine, turnovers aren’t, hope he has this drilled into his head. 

Nebraska Cornhuskers +10 – 2 UNIT PLAY