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Author: [College Football] Topic: **CFB Week 1**
RJSizzle send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 8/30/2011 12:40:53 PM
2010 89-79-5 +206.9 Units
2010 Bowls 18-18 +8.25 Units

Hope everyone had a nice summer and made some money. Just going to look to continue the results from last year.

For the newbies - I try to stay ahead of the curve, not behind or with it. I play spots and situations, the teams and talent on the field rarely matters to me. I often bet the worse of the two teams in a game, I am perfectly comfortable with that.



Week 1 Starts out like this:

1 Unit Memphis +29

Memphis is friggin terrible. I mean, really really bad. OK, now that I have stated everyone's opinion on them after last year, I will say that I think this line is atrocious. It should be a TD shorter. MSU made a huge jump last year with their program. Huge. But to lay this on the road to start the year? Yikes. I will gladly pay to see it happen. If Memphis cannot get up for their Home Opener, what other opportunities are you going to have to bet on this squad??

5 Units Baylor +6.5

Again, betting on a team that is not as good as their opponent, but playing in their home opener. TCU lost quite a bit and I like what Baylor brings back. I hate betting against Patterson, but I am a huge fan of Briles.

Baylor playing with revenge, did anyone see last years game? Dalton started with what? 15 straight completions? Baylor was a shell-shocked team and got their fools kicked. I think it gives them a huge motivational edge here. The situational aspect, National TV, ranked team coming in, revenge. It puts me squarely on the Bears.

More to come as I figure some things out. And yes, playing smaller these early weeks. You can wait until week 3 for the big plays.



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#2
Posted: 8/30/2011 1:09:59 PM
Whats up RJ?  Glad to see you on these 2, as I lean the same way.  I am contemplating getting on the Baylor ML.  At +210 I think its worth a shot.  Look forward to finding the dogs with you this year.  BOL this year.




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#3
Posted: 8/30/2011 1:20:46 PM
Yes, at anything over 2:1 its worth a shot.

Good to see you, buddy. Looking forward to another year of this.


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#4
Posted: 8/30/2011 1:23:31 PM


Yessir
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#5
Posted: 8/30/2011 1:27:31 PM
BOL this season RJ 
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#6
Posted: 8/30/2011 1:38:27 PM
gl rj always a read for me
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SatNightFever05
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#7
Posted: 8/30/2011 1:51:46 PM
good to see ya back..

Leaning Baylor, hoping it goes to 6.5 and I'll buy the hook at 7..

only you would be degen enough to back Memphis.. my hat goes off to you sir 
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#8
Posted: 8/30/2011 2:11:13 PM

Good to see you back RJ

 BOL to another profitable season

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#9
Posted: 8/30/2011 2:22:17 PM
alright da baylor +6 is a 50-50 play dat can go either way, BUUUT!!! Memphis!!!? lol dats a damn joke..i got MISS ST. buddy im sorry..hm field opener or not dey flat out suckk n will not cover
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#10
Posted: 8/30/2011 2:36:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bonilla420:

alright da baylor +6 is a 50-50 play dat can go either way, BUUUT!!! Memphis!!!? lol dats a damn joke..i got MISS ST. buddy im sorry..hm field opener or not dey flat out suckk n will not cover


Fully aware that Memphis is a joke of a squad.

But also fully aware of past history and its no indicator that Miss St should be laying anything over 20 here.

GL and thanks for commenting.


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#11
Posted: 8/30/2011 2:38:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SatNightFever05:

good to see ya back..

Leaning Baylor, hoping it goes to 6.5 and I'll buy the hook at 7..

only you would be degen enough to back Memphis.. my hat goes off to you sir 


If this team has any integrity they cover against Miss St.

I cant believe people are champing at the bit to lay 29 with Miss State on the road. Last year was a great spot to lay the wood with Miss St in this same exact spot. If you laid it, pat yourself on the back.

If you lay it this time? You might have that 'I cant believe I missed that boat' feeling.

Just my two. I lose often.


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#12
Posted: 8/30/2011 3:03:10 PM
Welcome back Sizzle and hope you have another profitable year.  I posited the exact question to the forum on Memphis a few days back as 99% of the forum is on MSU.  All I got is Memphis was the worst team last year blah blah blah.

I can't lay 29 with MSU on the road and especially without Diaz at DC.  I'm high on Diaz at Texas---he appears to be a great coach.  I'm on it small come tomorrow.

Presume you are going to be on Boise?

And can't wait to pound the Seminoles against OU and their injured defense as well.  A dual threat QB is OU's worst nightmare this year with Box (RIP) and Lewis out.



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#13
Posted: 8/30/2011 3:12:20 PM
Great to see you back this year.

I hopped on Baylor early as well. I will gladly pay to see TCU win by over a TD on the road in this spot.


RG3
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#14
Posted: 8/30/2011 3:27:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kroch:

Welcome back Sizzle and hope you have another profitable year.  I posited the exact question to the forum on Memphis a few days back as 99% of the forum is on MSU.  All I got is Memphis was the worst team last year blah blah blah.

I can't lay 29 with MSU on the road and especially without Diaz at DC.  I'm high on Diaz at Texas---he appears to be a great coach.  I'm on it small come tomorrow.

Presume you are going to be on Boise?

And can't wait to pound the Seminoles against OU and their injured defense as well.  A dual threat QB is OU's worst nightmare this year with Box (RIP) and Lewis out.





You touch upon the one thing nobody has discussed.

There was a reason I was a bit elated - and started a thread about it here last year - that Manny Diaz went to the Longhorns. He's a genius, imo. He turned that Miss St defense around with less athletes than he will have at UT.

The loss of Diaz for Miss St is huge and it will be felt - whether or not here. He is one of the best x-and-o guys in the country. He also makes some great mid-game adjustments.

I dont think I will be on Boise, leaning UGA. But that line tells you Boise is the play.



Andy
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#15
Posted: 8/30/2011 3:32:51 PM
GL bud.
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#16
Posted: 8/30/2011 3:34:24 PM
Smurf Turf :pope:

Also just so you know, I will be stealing Hakeem Nicks at some point tonight.
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#17
Posted: 8/30/2011 3:40:32 PM

"Champing at the bit," very impressive.    You are one of the seven people in the US who use that phrase correctly. 

I think in both these games you are basically taking a "home" team that might be playing in what is essentially a neutral site.  MSU and TCU should bring 15,000, and road fans always raise more hell.  I admire your guts for taking Memphirca in any event. 

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#18
Posted: 8/30/2011 3:43:41 PM
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#19
Posted: 8/30/2011 3:58:10 PM
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#20
Posted: 8/30/2011 4:10:33 PM

BOL Brother

May it be your Best season ever

 

Miss St could be a Covers Bloodbath ....I am on the the Bulldogs for a baby $1-36 wager

. However I am shocked with all the Baylor Love on here ... They play almost zero D and lost 2 of their best Lineman in forever ....TCU is my second biggest wager in week 1...

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#21
Posted: 8/30/2011 4:20:54 PM
OTR - I cant believe the draft is at 11pm. I dont do my best work that late. I was assed out on the couch last night at 10pm. I dont know how I am going to stay up for the whole draft. People clown on the Giants offense, but they put up gaudy #s every year. Nicks is a top 20 pick. Josh will take him top 5, though. Watch out.

Maine - LOL...thanks man. I take pride in writing properly and putting my thoughts out there with at least a semblance of an education. About TCU....do they have access to that many seats? I know if you stepped foot in Waco this offseason the only talk you heard about was the TCU game. This is the biggest game in the last 10 years of the Baylor program. I dont see how they let TCU take over the stadium - especially with how those hicks havent shut the darn up about 'Beat TCU' this offseason.

The Memphis play is more of a play against Miss St than anything on Memphis.

Good to see some of the familiar names around here.


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#22
Posted: 8/30/2011 5:32:39 PM
I was just able to buy 15 seats together with no problem through the BU web site.  If I can buy 15, I'm pretty sure people who actually want to go can buy 15, or one.  The moral of the story is that there will be as many Frog fans as feel like making the trip. 
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#23
Posted: 8/30/2011 5:54:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MaineRoad:

I was just able to buy 15 seats together with no problem through the BU web site.  If I can buy 15, I'm pretty sure people who actually want to go can buy 15, or one.  The moral of the story is that there will be as many Frog fans as feel like making the trip. 


Good info


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#24
Posted: 8/30/2011 6:12:44 PM

Like the plays Sizzle

 

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#25
Posted: 8/30/2011 7:09:21 PM
If Baylor had any chance to win, it was with Josh Gordon breaking out at receiver. He was literally the only threat to TCU last season, as proven by his TD where he smoked the Frogs' best corner (Greg McCoy). Gordon just had his third strike a few weeks ago and is now in Salt Lake City.

Not only is Gordon gone, Baylor is also dealing with at least 3 injuries in the secondary that was already awful.

IMO, you'll get a lot more from your money taking Air Force next week. That will probably be one of my biggest bets this year.

Frogs' 4-2-5 is tailor made to crush Baylor's spread offense, and Briles just doesn't adjust. Can anyone name a good team Baylor competed with last year? I guess Texas A&M for a half...then they got shutout when A&M's defense adjusted and Baylor kept doing the same ol' thing. 

Every defense that didn't flat-out suck figured Baylor out within the first 5-10 minutes of the game. Against TCU, OU, aTm (for the 2nd half), OKSt, Illinois...this team was just out-coached. Yeah you can blame the defense for being pitiful - and it was - but there's no way a team with Robert Griffin at QB should be dominated like they were against Oklahoma freaking State's defense.

I do like your take on the Memphis bet, though. BOL RJ
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