Guys, I'm up a lot so I can afford to bet this very large. If you can't afford to lose it don't bet it there are no guarantees, but I love this game and feel very confident after looking at this all week.
Let's break this down:
Washington: played 8 bowl teams. Went 2-6 straight up and 2-6 ats. Played 3 10 win teams and went 0-3 and 0-3 ats losing by an avg of 39 pts per game. Two big wins over USC and Syracuse back in week 2 and 4. Also lost by 30 to az, 10 to az st and 6 to byu.
Washington lost to the teams they should lose to and beat the teams they should beat. And when they lost, they got crushed.
They are once again out of their league here, and with Taylor Martinez as healthy as he's been all year, his threat to run is back and Washington can't stop it. Their rush D is awful and to make matters worse their D-line has all sorts of injuries and they have just 5 healthy d-line starters and their rotation will get gassed in this game. The trio of Taylor Martinez, Roy Heli, and Rex Burkhead will just wear down Washington in this game.
Nebraska is a healthy Taylor Martinez ankle and a couple bounces away from being a potential National Title team, playing a Washington team that struggled to get to .500 and became bowl eligible by the skin of their teeth. This isn't a 9 win Washington team that showed major glimpses of hope this season, and just had one "mulligan" game as I call it. This pick has nothing to do with Nebraska beating Washington by 100. Because even if you remove that game, any good team Washington faced they just got crushed by an average of 39+ to be exact.
Any Nebraska made a habit out of stepping on other team's throats this year. Having a killer instinct is a learned skill and Bo Pellini has put that killer instinct in Nebraska. They beat every opponent by 10+ this year except the game Taylor Martinez didn't start.
Nebraska's offense sputtered some down the stretch as the combination of outstanding defenses faced (like Oklahoma), an injured Taylor Martinez unable to make cuts, constant pressure on their defense to keep them in games, etc just took it's toll. Nebraska still always kept games within 1 score and never got embarassed. And that is a big reason why I don't think they will come out and let their guard down and get emabrassed tonight. Nebraska also plays Washington in September in 2011 in the 2nd leg of their home and home, so I doubt Nebraska wants to give Washington any confidence going into that game.
Finally, I don't care if this is Jake Locker's last game or not. Sometimes things don't always go rosey. Ask Troy Smith against Florida, Brady Quinn against LSU, and Matt Leinart against Texas. You don't always ride off into the sunset, especially when you don't matchup well with the other team.
The first game was no fluke. The Pacific Northwest is one of the toughest places to play football. It's part of why Autzen Stadium and the Seattle Seahawks enjoy major homefield advantages. And for Washington to play in the Pacfici Northwest at home facing Taylor Martinez making just his 3rd career start and get ran off the field means these two teams are on different levels.
Neb -13 VERY LARGE
Neb first half -7 LARGE
Neb Team total over 33 LARGE