Making a case for Fresno State

Question

Note: This write-up originally was going to be one the free picks I release for a couple of media outlets. Someone else had already taken this game, so I went with the under 65 in the Oklahoma State-Kansas game. But I figured this shrewd anaysis shouldn't go to waste, so here you have it ...

The pick: Fresno State +30.5.

There are two ways you can win a sports bet; make a great pick or get lucky. Taking Fresno here allows you the opportunity to do one or the other.

Out of basic principle, putting four-plus touchdowns in your pocket before kick-off will get you the money more often than not.

Even so, it’s not often I’ll recommend firing at Goliath with a BB gun, which seems to be the case any time you back the underdog against the Broncos on the smurf turf.

You’d better have a few additional factors working in your favor, and you’ve got them here with the Bulldogs.

Fresno State coach Pat Hill has said he intends to try and shorten the game with a run-dominated attack, thereby limiting Boise’s number of possessions, similar to Cal’s strategy last week against Oregon.

He has the personnel to do it. Running back Robbie Rouse has gained 769 yards in the past four games and more than 200 yards in each of the past two games.

He won’t find the chunks of yardage quite as easily against Boise State’s second-ranked run defense, but he’s still a viable weapon. Also, Boise State run-stopper Byron Hout is out with a broken ankle.

In last year’s 51-34 loss to Boise State, Fresno gained 507 yards of total offense, 320 of which came on the ground. Moreover, a much less-explosive Louisiana Tech team gained 394 yards of total offense at Boise a few weeks ago.

Of course, many otherwise sensible game plans have been pureed in a blue and orange blender in Boise. But even if it gets ugly, a spread as big as this one usually is vulnerable until the final horn sounds, providing another factor that works in your favor here.

Best of luck.

Josh_Nagel · Answer