Season: 25-13-1
College: 15-7-1
Last Week/Thurs: 5-2-1
Okay, on to the weekend games after a cashin on the Thursday game. For anyone that follows, you know the game. Anyone else, feel free to go back and read...
Oklahoma -3
This hurts, as I am a Texan, but the computation has this as a two score game. Oklahoma has an AYPC of 4.8, which is a ridiculous number for any yards per carry figure, let alone adjusted. The Oklahoma defense has an DBA of under three, which spells serious trouble for a Pro set Texas offense. In most situations, the Longhorns would adjust to the defensive scheme with screens to backs and receivers. Unfortunately, this walks into the gameplan of Venable, who surrenders less than 4 YPA in the screen game over the last four years. The difference makers in this game would have to be special teams (A. Williams), and a big leaper who can really go get the ball. This man is Davis, who goes into the game gimped up. This (deep balls) is the weakness of the Sooner defense, but just doesnt figure to be a factor with the lack of time in the pocket, offensive weapons, and qb mobility (DEFF rating of 48.9 when the qb throws outside the pocket) on the Longhorns side of the ball. Computation: OU 31-20
NC State +4 1/2
The Wolfpack have been able to contain quarterbacks quite efficiently this season, as evidenced by their QBMOVE rating (58ish). Most of this in due to the undersized D Line, with DT's looking like LB's and DE's coming in more like safeties. Granted, Tyrod Taylor is a different kind of athlete, but the linebackers have shown this season that they will react to the run and ask questions later, leaving a very underrated secondary on islands, very similar to a Rob Ryan defense. On the other side of the ball, the Hokies have surrendered an average of 11.3 yards per catch on play action, which happens to play into Russell Wilson's strength, as demonstrated by his 218.6 QBEFF rating on play action. Secondly, "pressure" comes from the blind side of Wilson 72% of the time so far this season from the VT defense. Usually, this is a good thing, but he has time and time again displayed a knack for moving the pocket away from the blind side via running and throwing out of the pocket, to a nice CYPP (corrected yards per play) of 17.9! To put this into perspective, the highest figure surmised in my historical data was Michael Vick in his first season moving left (14.4) away from pressure. So he is historically good at the moment. Wilson's AYA on first and second down is 9.2, which takes away the biggest card in the VT defense (blitzing on third and 6+, where their success rate is over 80%) over the last three seasons. Lastly, the NCST HFPI (home field performance index) is the fourth highest in the nation in the O'Brien era. I see NCST in a game that isn't close, though the program sees it far closer. I'm guessing 31-24 NCST. Computation: NCST 26-23 Sidebar: If your book takes safety bets, this game puts the likelihood at 3.8%, a ridiculous figure. If you follow, my little sidebars aren't usually bad at all. See: McGuffie for the game changing TD and 150 total yds (114), Te'o and his performance, the 5 field goals in the Stanford game, the Florida D/ST TD's, etc. Though their are misses as well. Let's be realistic here.
Ole Miss -3
Not personally a big fan of the pick, but the computation has the game at 11 points. Simply put, The OLP (OLine push) figure for the rebels is an insane 3.9 yards per rush. The rebels have been awful at home, and their performance last week was NOT as bad as the score indicated. I guess one positive (Seriously, I'm not racist) is that Houston Nutt has a home cover percentage of 66% against white quarterbacks in his career, as opposed to 37% against black, hispanic, and pacific islander QB's. I thought that was kind of weird. Computation: 38-27. Three failed PAT's in this game says the program... Pray they aren't all by the rebs...
Oregon St. -3
This game shows the largest disparity on the board this week (16 points) by a good bit. The program has five turnovers, two D/ST touchdowns, and over 250 return yards total. Sounds like it should be a barn burner, but the Computation says...... 30-13 weird, huh?
Miami -3
The Tigers have a OPROF rating of 54 against defenses similar to the Hurricanes. Kyle Parker displays little in this kind of game with a QBEFF of 84.4 in his career. Meanwhile, Jacory Harris showcases his all around abilities quite well against defenses keying on run blitzes and utilizing a Cover1/Cover2 scheme more than 20% of the time. Interestingly, Bowden Tree Disciples are 32% ATS coming off a bye week. Double sucks for Dabo, as he has studied under a Bowden son and Mike Dubose.
Stanford +7
I have been ridiculed for this pick at the office. A lot of "What a gambling noob", " Do you know wtf Autzen Stadium means", and my personal favorite "That's why you don't play your little games on a computer and expect to be successful, scrub" comments have been uttered. The Autzen Stadium factor does play a factor, but played elsewhere, this game is a 1 1/2 point game. Now, I'm not saying this is a game changing deal, but Stanford runs a rhythmic offense (91.4% OFLUIDITY) that uses very little of the clock (avg 26.0) and runs on a tap, timing, touch snap count more than sixty-eight of the time. The Oregon offense has a CPPG of nearly thirty points less than their current PPG. Okay, you say, the Oregon offense lives and dies on big, big plays. Fair enough, but the Stanford defense in the Harbaugh era holds teams within 3 points of their CPPG. And you have to remember, the beginning was during some very explosive USC, Cal, Oregon, and ASU offenses when Harbaugh DID NOT have the athletes to compete. Quite impressive. The biggest factor in my opinion: Oregon has a DERR% of roughly 18%. The Stanford offense has has capitalized on these mistakes to the tune of 27 YPP in their games over the last two years. Simply put: Stanford will capitalize on enough Oregon errors to stay in the game, if not win. Computation: STANFORD 34-32. Sidebar: Oregon goes for it on fourth down FIVE TIMES, misses an XPA and two field goals.
Lastly, I have had a few comments in my box stating that I need to pick more meaningful games. I did so this week because they showed up as the best picks against the number, not at your urging. Look, I have a responsibility to hit my 55% number that began this experiment. If a game does not appear to be a safe enough play, I'm not going to use it. I apologize if that sucks for you, but there are guys that have like 10,000 views. I get like 200. How the hell are my 200 the pickiest damn 200 in the whole freaking covers crew?
Best of luck to all! Let's make some money!!!
NFL picks will go up around 10:30 am CDT.
Hot Forum Topics
