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Author: [College Football] Topic: Auburn vs. Mississippi State (Discussion)
GroveCity send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 9/7/2010 1:28:51 PM
This thread was generated for general (educated) opinions and facts about this game. I believe the more facts (i.e. ATS records, Thursday night game stats for each team, etc.) we can generate, the better opinion we can form.  
This thread is not for "MSU sucks Auburn rolls" type comments...Now....Go

These are 5 points I feel are important to this game...

1. State has a 2 QB system (a "running" QB and a "throwing" QB) designed for a spread offense.  Relf (running QB) does a good job with the read option, etc as he is a bull (6' 3" ish and 240 lbs).  However, he does not throw the ball well.  Especially downfield.  Russell (throwing QB) is a sophomore with limited experience that has a tendency to get rattled fairly easy and is prone to bad decisions.  (see the Memphis game, as he threw a few balls that should have been going the other way).

2.  Memphis is god-awful...The Little Giants could have put 49 on them, however I don't believe this indicates MSU's offense is a slouch.  They will spread the ball around to their playmakers (their best being WR Chap Bumphis) via screens, end-arounds, reverses, Wildcat, etc.  I feel Auburn can contain this, as they run THE SAME OFFENSE under Gus Malzahn.  

3.  Cam Newton can do it all, I believe MSU will try to get to him early and often, however their offense is designed to get rid of the ball quickly.  There will be alot of man vs man opportunities against State's secondary, that a good QB can exploit.  The difference to me is he can push the ball downfield, State cannot.

4.  Is Auburn's defense susceptible to the big play? Possibly.....with 8 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter against Ark. State, the score was 35-23.  Ark. State was able to spread the ball around in a similar manner that State will try and exploit.  Can Auburn shore this up before Thursday? I think so.... Ethridge for Auburn was just cleared for contact 2 weeks ago.  I believe with a game under his belt, he will be able to settle in and contribute in a big way Thursday.

5. Thursday night game....Obviously the nation will be watching and Starkville, MS will be rocking.  Alot of controversy has been surrounding the cowbell and when they can ring them.  This makes a tremendous noise difference, as their stadium, due to both ends being open, is not very loud without them.  WIll the officials enforce the ringing rules?( i.e. can only ring them at certain times in the game as in after scores, timeouts ,etc.  Not while Auburn has the ball)  This will be a factor for the noise level....

I feel the line is fishy at -2.  However, this IS a home game State, on a Thursday night, in the SEC.  I expected the line to be Auburn  -6 to  -7.  This line is begging for Auburn action, and I believe I will be taking the bait and going Auburn....What say ye??
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#2
Posted: 9/7/2010 1:39:02 PM
Nice post... I like State.
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#3
Posted: 9/7/2010 1:52:01 PM

thursday night home underdog has been money for a long time, i believe thats one of the most important factors.

when these 2 teams play you can usually throw out all the stats, last year the 3-2 score,

i believe miss st. has the edge on defense, and being home,

both teams have new QB's, and pretty much new coaches.

i went to the auburn game saturday night, they looked good and real good at times, they also looked bad at times.

i watched the miss st. game yesterday, its a different team than past years, probably there best team for the past 10 years,

i will probably lay off this game and pull for auburn, its going to be a close game and i believe there will be some scoring, mabye the over is worth a look.

auburn does however have an edge in talent i believe,

thursday night dog,, watchout.

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#4
Posted: 9/7/2010 2:02:22 PM
Since 2008, 10 of the 16 Home teams ( Who have either been UNRANKED or Ranked worse than the Visiting top 25 team ) have won STRAIGHT UP...
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#5
Posted: 9/7/2010 2:46:46 PM
Auburn's D has just been lousy.  They gave up 320 yds passing and 26 points to Arkansas State. Their last 5 games theyve given up 31, 31, 26, 35, and 26 points. 2 of those games were Arkansas State and Furman! I think MSU will be able to run downhill and eat up clock  all night. You  the add super fishy line (not even -3?) and that tells me everything  I need to know. Hold your nose and take MSU....
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#6
Posted: 9/7/2010 3:44:26 PM
Ok, I'll play devil's advocate...

Don't forget that Miss. State lost their leading rusher over the last 4 years in Anthony Dixon.  He ran for 1,391 yards last year (more than Heisman Winner Mark Ingram, I believe).  When you lose that kind of production, your offense almost always takes a hit.  He was their bell cow, and their talent there is nowhere near him now.....
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#7
Posted: 9/7/2010 4:11:51 PM
Miss St wins SU at home
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#8
Posted: 9/7/2010 6:08:42 PM
last years score was 49 - 24 Auburn winning.  3 - 2 was two years ago.  Auburns offense better than last year.  Auburn 44 MSU 26...Auburn rolls
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#9
Posted: 9/7/2010 6:10:53 PM
As in Grovetuckey ?
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#10
Posted: 9/7/2010 6:21:39 PM
close game miss.state usually plays pretty tough at home but auburn is alittle to talented on offence and will win by 7 to 10 pts
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#11
Posted: 9/7/2010 6:35:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kaplan:

As in Grovetuckey ?



Ha...no.  I had to use to Google to figure out that Ohio joke.  
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#12
Posted: 9/7/2010 6:37:39 PM
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#13
Posted: 9/7/2010 6:46:12 PM
State is the play, Public on Auburn HUGE right now (70%) and line hasent budged.
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#14
Posted: 9/7/2010 6:57:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by RMcCarthy1:

State is the play, Public on Auburn HUGE right now (70%) and line hasent budged.

While I agree it is often fishy that a line never moves and one side is pounded, etc. etc.  I find it hard to believe that "guys" in Vegas are keeping the line down because they secretly know who is going to win, thus they want to public to load up on one side.  If they lived by that, all of those pretty lights in Vegas would go out....JMO
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#15
Posted: 9/7/2010 9:37:26 PM
Thanks for starting this thread, I was looking for something just like this on this game.

My initial lean was to take State at 3.5, buying points if necessary. I'm really not sure what to do though.

Love the discussion here.
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#16
Posted: 9/7/2010 9:40:18 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by kaplan:

As in Grovetuckey ?

Best post thus far, classic.

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#17
Posted: 9/7/2010 10:45:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by C-C:

thursday night home underdog has been money for a long time, i believe thats one of the most important factors.

when these 2 teams play you can usually throw out all the stats, last year the 3-2 score,

i believe miss st. has the edge on defense, and being home,

both teams have new QB's, and pretty much new coaches.

i went to the auburn game saturday night, they looked good and real good at times, they also looked bad at times.

i watched the miss st. game yesterday, its a different team than past years, probably there best team for the past 10 years,

i will probably lay off this game and pull for auburn, its going to be a close game and i believe there will be some scoring, mabye the over is worth a look.

auburn does however have an edge in talent i believe,

thursday night dog,, watchout.



The 3-2 game was two years back, last year Auburn beat them badly at home.


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#18
Posted: 9/7/2010 11:10:14 PM
Auburn by 7-10
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#19
Posted: 9/7/2010 11:19:22 PM

For some reason when I look at this game I can't help but think last year at this time I loved 4th ranked Ole Miss at unranked South Carolina -3. Not only did Ole Miss lose they were throughly outplayed throughout the game. These schools get jacked for Thursday night home games. Its literally like watching a different team play.

Auburn was also terrible last year on the road losing to Georgia by 7 (4 point dogs), LSU by 21 (7.5 point dogs), and Arkansas by 21 (1.5 point favorites). They also beat Tennessee by 4 as 1.5 point favorites. In 2008 they were 1-4 on the road with their lone win a 3-2 barnburner vs Miss State. I simply can not back a team that is 2-7 last two years on the road going into a stadium that is very tough to play in. Miss St was horrible last year and still almost beat Florida and LSU at home. Miss State is a lot better this year and Mullen is a great coach. Teams with new head coachs usually make big jumps in the second season and I think Miss State could win 8 or 9 games this year.

I probably wont play this game because I just think there are better values on the board and because I dont trust Miss State QBs because they havent proven anything yet but I would tread very lightly on any bet placed on this game. Miss St has homefield and coaching adv. Auburn has more talent but is a very bad road team and they were exposed at times last week on defense.

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#20
Posted: 9/7/2010 11:45:50 PM
I can agree with that....I just have a hard time believing State will be able to line up and run over Auburn with the loss of Dixon.  He was their offense last season.

The Thursday night stats given earlier in the thread by MoneyMakinMoe will be probably be enough to make this a no play for me. A total play could be the best bet.....Better games are on the board for this weekend...
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#21
Posted: 9/8/2010 12:23:08 AM
I keep going back and forth as to who I think wins this one, which means no play for me.  I am leaning towards the over however and expect both teams to have a shot at reaching 30+ points.
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#22
Posted: 9/8/2010 3:40:29 AM
I think you lost me when you wanted to talk about trends and past results.  How does "Yale killed Auburn on a Thursday night back in '32" have anything to do with a present day Yale/Auburn bame? Neither one of these two resemble the teams the they were two years ago.  Call me uneducated, but its just not factors I consider.
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#23
Posted: 9/8/2010 5:26:53 AM
"MSU sucks Auburn rolls"
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#24
Posted: 9/8/2010 5:46:39 AM
Miss State ML.

Miss State will win outright.
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#25
Posted: 9/8/2010 4:42:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jp1lsu:

I think you lost me when you wanted to talk about trends and past results.  How does "Yale killed Auburn on a Thursday night back in '32" have anything to do with a present day Yale/Auburn bame? Neither one of these two resemble the teams the they were two years ago.  Call me uneducated, but its just not factors I consider.

I was referring to MoneyMakinMoe's reference to Thursday night games dating back to 2008.  I'm not sure where you got Yale vs Auburn in 1932 from?? Its common knowledge that home dogs on Thursday nights have usually been solid...
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