2009-2010 Bowl Season Thread

This will be my bowl season thread.  I have a few systems that I follow, and a few other angles that I look for when playing bowl games.  I decided to take a break since Thanksgiving and focus on other things, but look forward to returning for bowl season.

Texas & Alabama

Alabama wiped the floor with Florida and I had a sneaky suspicion that Bama +5.5 and the OVER was the right sides, but I showed some unfortunate discipline and decided not to play it.

Bama opened at -2.5 (total 45.5) over Texas on 5dimes.  I find this extremely interesting...and the line is now -4.  I am going to offer my conspiracy theory on this - I don't remember them doing this last year either.  If you were running a large book, why would you put a line out of -2.5 on the biggest game of the year when the favored team wiped the floor with #1 and the dog in this fight got lucky to beat a pathetic offensive team like Nebraska?  And you gift wrap a less then FG spread early?  There cannot be a lot of betters out there willing to take Texas and the points (at least at -2.5 or 3) after yesterday.  I am very surprised and wish I understood their reasoning.

More discussion to come...

Side note...Oregon -2 is posted here and there.  Didn't see it myself, but that is the rumor.  There are several of you on here that need to go ahead and get that equity line on your house drawn up so you can pound the ducks.  I'm a little disappointed because I would have preferred -5 and watching it hit 7 by game time.  Who knows, maybe it still will.

Bowl Season is finally here!    I was quite tired of the regular season to be honest...it was not as exciting as years past.

One more thing...GO BEARCATS.

Random Thought of the Day (#1)

I'm not leaning one way or the other just yet on the National Championship Game...but I struggle with the majority of the opinion at this point in time regarding Bama steam-rolling Texas.

Consider this with all honesty...

If we asked the opinion of 100 folks on this site who have posted an opinion on Bama vs. Texas already, as to whether they would take Texas +6 vs. Alabama on the morning of December 5th, what would the majority answer?

What if we asked that same group the afternoon following the near-win by Bama over Auburn?  Would you take Texas +6 against Bama if they were to play in a National Championship game?

Without hard data, I believe the top two responses would be as follows:

#1  "Doesn't matter, Florida plays Texas for the National Championship"

#2  "Oh, Texas +6 against Bama...I'll take the points."

After one single day in college football...one weekend...the majority of the country, all but one state, has decided the National Champion for 2009.  If it wasn't for ticket sales and merchandise, the committee would have already canceled the game.  It's just been decided already.

Certainly a random thought for the day....

i hear you PlacinUnits----the entire media is already calling the game over.  SI has "mismatch" in its headline.  Wojo on espn has a scathing article against the Horns.

Agree ... Go Bearcats

I agree. Some what fools gold. My personal opinion and nothing more... I thought Florida was over rated from the start. They lost Harvin, which was seemed to be not a big deal. Look at him now with the Vikes and how much he was actually. FL had some close games as well. Bama did step up and win some very close games, some would say lucky wins. Agree!

Texas did as well. Neb was nothing to be looked against. They are a great team and as shown, have a great D. Texas A&M was much like Bama playing Auburn. In state rivial.  With that being said. I do think if Texas played in the SEC (Bias- Sorry) they would of gotten a lost.  Not to take anything away from Texas.

I am also not stupid to say i think it is a sweep. Saban even said last night, it was the media trying to get a rise. He knowns it will be a well fought game. It is pretty obvious who i am pulling for. I would not buy much into the line at this point. I would give 6.5 and feel comfortable, though i could be wrong.  It does seem fishy at 2.5. Go with your gut and GL Either way

Well crafted and thoughtful responses thus far...is this still covers?  Very well done.

I am not saying one way or the other?  I am only asking a few interesting questions, wondering the answers myself...

what's up placin - agree everyone (including gamblers) overreacts to the most recent game, only wish Bama had played this one right after Auburn since it would have been near PK, still even with the now hype the tide is solid and will be tough to beat, Texas struggled with OSU last year and their fate could be similar to OSU in previous couple, then again you never know

GL this bowl season bro

Nostra, what is happening my man.  Good luck this bowl season! 

Don't mistake my random thoughts for a wager on Texas!  Just trying to provoke some thought and good conversation.

Random Thought of the Day (#2)

I can't stand Ohio State.  I live in Cincinnati and I just can't stand their fan base.  I have never been around a more obnoxious group of people in my life.  Not to say there are not worthy fans who should feel disrespected by my comments, but the fair share of fans are beyond words.

College Football is a sport.  I for one take it more seriously then the average joe, concerned with who wins between Bama and Florida, but I also flip the TV channel, refresh gamecast, or constantly bring up the ESPN app on my phone just to see who wins the Florida Atlantic / Florida International game.  Why?  Because I gamble.  

I of course do have teams I pull for more then others.  I obviously pull my Bearcats and support that program as a home-town fan - though I will spit at the TV when Brian Kelly comes out on the field for his first appearance as head coach of Notre Dame.  I am an SEC guy though - not by birth (that would be New Mexico State...lol) and not by college degree (that would be Purdue).  My sister was a top 16 [in the world] at Florida, my father went to Tulane and LSU, and my wife's family are bulldogs fans through in through.

But what I can't understand is why a fan of any team can show pure hatred for anyone who crosses their team.  I was almost fired this year when I told my boss I believe Ohio State goes 9-3.  I was close [to being fired and being correct]. Their fans will disrespect your first born, your grandmother, who ever...if you don't recognize their program as elite.  It's amazing to me.  I actually will bet ON Ohio State at times and cheer silently in my own home for a cover - the team has done nothing to deserve my dislike (maybe their coach has).  But their fans...are all state schools supported by such blind children who can't rationalize the world around them?  

My brother took a test up at Ohio State and when he returned to his car, his Florida cap over top of the trailer hitch had been busted off.  18-22 year old children are just that, children.  But grown men - there is no excuse.  I feel another random thought coming on regarding the Ohio State / Oregon match-up...but that's it for now.  

Just a random thought for the day...

Wow.  Sorry about your bad experiences.  As an OSU fan, may I extend an olive branch to you? 

Absolutely, Psalty, nice to meet you.

Ill be on Texas, Iowa, Florida, and Ohio State big

Mr. Insight...you are just that, insightful.  I will be enjoying 3 out of 4, possibly all 4 of those same plays.

Random Thought of the Day (#3)

I can't say I am mad.  But I can tell you the city sure is pissed off tonight.  Personally, I am more disappointed if anything - but I also understand "our place" in college football, and that place is a stepping stone for coaches like Brian Kelly.  UC football came alive the past three years and for once I had a team in the city that was noticed - it was exciting.  We don't have much of that here in Cincinnati - Bengals usually screw it up (we'll see this season).

The fact remains, I will leave my employer if I find my dream job or have the opportunity to take on that huge role I have had my eyes on.  So I cannot say I blame him.

However, this is extremely crucial for Notre Dame football and the future of Brian Kelly.  It is very possible that he turns that program around - top 10, top 5 perhaps within 3 years.  It is also very possible that the reality of South Bend, IN and the politics and unrealistic expectations of that sinking program finally collapses.  I hope for him, he is not out on the street in 3 years and suffering the same criticism that Ol' Charlie is...but if they fail this time, maybe, just maybe...Notre Dame will finally reset its expectations and aim for top 25 each year.

The players are pissed, but that is a knee-jerk reaction.  They may very well rally despite Kelly.  We will see. 

I am interested in learning whether he got any of the provisions or exceptions that Stoops asked for (or claimed to have asked for)...I really want to see if Notre Dame compromised their values in order to "return to prominence".

That team will be a joke next year, that much I know.

great season for the Bearcats

agree on your Bama random thought, that's basically what I was getting at as well

would be great if UC could get a shot at ND on the schedule at some point - maybe in a bowl game next year or two, Cincy would have easily put up 50+ on ND this year. 

Hopefully Kelly didn't actually tell the players he was staying after the big east championship as heard after the game, still possible they can rally and have a good bowl game as WV did couple years ago blasting OU after RR left

looking forward to the bowl picks and BOL

Great post, NOS.

You hit the nail on the head....if Kelly really told them this is his home and his school, then he drops a few more notches in my book.  That is classless.

I'm telling you, this city is saying "he's dead to me". 

People are mad because he made us good, now we fear that we will return to our former position in the football world.

I don't think Kelly had anything to do with you guys being Good

Well, though i think Kelly was the force behind the past three seasons, I think his largest contribution was recruiting.  And because of that, our biggest asset (the play makers of this past year) are still playing in the bowl game.  Do we lose some coaching edge if it comes down to the wire, perhaps...but I hope these kids rally.

I want it to be a ball game, that is all I am asking for.  Win or lose, I want to see a competition down to the wire.  We will see.

great thread, PU.  Enjoyed your (not so) random thoughts.  Also on Florida, Iowa, Ohio St and Texas.  Liking my chances on those. 

Not so random indeed skipster!  lol

Good luck, my man!



Additional random thought tonight...this one is interesting...

Random Thought of the Day (#4)

"Fade the Public"

That's what I commonly do, and you can make very good money doing it.  But you can also fade the public, and lose your entire bankroll just as easily.

Fading the public is not a smart play unless perhaps you have access to real dollars on each side versus number of wagers placed per side.  But if you stick with the general assumption we only know percent of wagers on each side, you would be sitting at a 51% average on the year if you bet WITH the public...that's more profitable then betting against them.

I have tracked the statistics from the top 5 sportsbooks online and vegas, that shows percent of wagers on each side - and I tracked the winner ATS against those numbers since Week 6.  

Let's say Florida is favored over Alabama and 66% of the public is on Florida, leaving 34% on Bama - that gives you a differential of 32% in favor of Florida.  I did this for every game since Week 6 and found Vegas only covered against the public 49% of the time.  NOt good.  But I did find that on any given Saturday, a band of differentials (0-19%, 20-39%, 40-60%, and 60% +) showed signs of where the public was winning big versus vegas...it just happened to average out.

Week 6 Results

          Public    Vegas
1% - 19%    6    6
20% - 39%    1    12
40% - 59%    8    5
60% and Above    6    3

In Week 6, the public went 6-6 against Vegas where one team was bet on between 1-19% more then the other team.

Vegas made a killing in category 2...I felt that was easy money.

Week 11 however...

            Public    Vegas
1% - 19%    5    11
20% - 39%    7    5
40% - 59%    7    6
60% and Above    9    4

The Public cleaned up, even with teams there were crushed with wagers (75% on one side).  But if you were the public betting dogs where there was not much a difference between number of bets on each side, well...you got hammered.

I didn't gleam much more from this other then if you track during the day the results of each game, by the second half of the day you can sometimes see the public or vegas way ahead, and you can assume it will be closer by end of day.  It's not much of a handicapping style, but it worked many times...sometimes you have to roll with the public.

Saturday, December 19th

(4U)  Wyoming (+11)
(4U)  Rutgers (ML -145)

Great start Placin

Thank you!

Saturday, December 19th

(4U)  Wyoming (+11) 
(4U)  Rutgers (ML -145) 

2-0 Start. 

All bets are "risking to win" 4 units, unless I state otherwise.

Sunday, December 20th

(6U)  USM / MTSU (UNDER 59)


Tuesday, December 22nd

(6U)  OREGON STATE (ML, -130)


Wednesday, December 23rd

(6U)  CAL (-3, -115)