Posted:
#1
Bowling Green -10 (Hook)
Eastern Mich/Toledo UNDER 62
Utah State +24 (Hook)
Utah State/Boise OVER 62
Notes: There were some puzzling line movements for tonight's action. I think you always have to take line movement into consideration, but it cannot be your sole purpose of picking a game, or reason. If you are doing that, you are capping, you are guessing. It takes both to successfully pick games. The Bowling Green line movement is ridiculous. Are people really laying that much on Akron? Or is it a head fake to lure bettors in on Akron? Who knows, so I threw out the notion of line movement, and as we say in stocks, when on fundamentals. Let's take a look at this one.
Bowling Green has had 8 days off, Akron 7. Bowling Green has the #4 passing offense in the country, Akron has the #60 Pass Efficiency Defense in the country. Now, some may ask, why are you not paying attention to their stout #29 ranking against the pass overall? My answer to that is because you cannot look solely at pass defense ranking, if the team is getting blown out, or their rushing defense is very bad..it skews the ranking due to teams not throwing the ball. Akron is 96th against the run.
The tale of the tape came down to this, though. Bowling Green has everything to play for (Bowl eligibility and a winning season), whereas Akron has nothing but pride to play for. After being up on Temple by 10 and getting the shit kicked out them, I can only imagine the morale. The deciding factor was Akron's scoring offense which is #108 in the country. BG will put pressure on them to score all night, and eventually they won't. Another key factor is they do not get pressure on the QB (averaging .7 sacks per game good for dead last in the nation). You will have to pressure BG, and Akron won't.
As for Eastern Michigan/Toledo under, I think this one will be very sloppy..and EMU's offense is atrocious. I have no play on this game, because the under looks so good.
Lastly, Utah State. I watched them play three times this year and have been very impressed each time (Utah, BYU, Nevada). They have the ability to put points up on the board the only thing that worries me is their defense is down right silly. They run the ball efficiently which I like in this one. In none of their losses have they lost by more than 3 scores.. they are a scrappy bunch and they will give Boise their best game here tonight. Boise might be looking a little ahead to their "big" showdown with Nevada and might give USU a chance to sneak in through the back door here and make it closer than it needs to be. I took the Over because USU's defense is horrid, and Boise might add a cheap one late for the BCS.
Sorry so long winded today guys...BOL tonight
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current Seasons
College Football: 67-33-4 (67%)
College Basketball: 13-16 (45%) CBB Large: 0-1
Professional Basketball: 3-0 (100%) NBA Large: 0-0
Eastern Mich/Toledo UNDER 62
Utah State +24 (Hook)
Utah State/Boise OVER 62
Notes: There were some puzzling line movements for tonight's action. I think you always have to take line movement into consideration, but it cannot be your sole purpose of picking a game, or reason. If you are doing that, you are capping, you are guessing. It takes both to successfully pick games. The Bowling Green line movement is ridiculous. Are people really laying that much on Akron? Or is it a head fake to lure bettors in on Akron? Who knows, so I threw out the notion of line movement, and as we say in stocks, when on fundamentals. Let's take a look at this one.
Bowling Green has had 8 days off, Akron 7. Bowling Green has the #4 passing offense in the country, Akron has the #60 Pass Efficiency Defense in the country. Now, some may ask, why are you not paying attention to their stout #29 ranking against the pass overall? My answer to that is because you cannot look solely at pass defense ranking, if the team is getting blown out, or their rushing defense is very bad..it skews the ranking due to teams not throwing the ball. Akron is 96th against the run.
The tale of the tape came down to this, though. Bowling Green has everything to play for (Bowl eligibility and a winning season), whereas Akron has nothing but pride to play for. After being up on Temple by 10 and getting the shit kicked out them, I can only imagine the morale. The deciding factor was Akron's scoring offense which is #108 in the country. BG will put pressure on them to score all night, and eventually they won't. Another key factor is they do not get pressure on the QB (averaging .7 sacks per game good for dead last in the nation). You will have to pressure BG, and Akron won't.
As for Eastern Michigan/Toledo under, I think this one will be very sloppy..and EMU's offense is atrocious. I have no play on this game, because the under looks so good.
Lastly, Utah State. I watched them play three times this year and have been very impressed each time (Utah, BYU, Nevada). They have the ability to put points up on the board the only thing that worries me is their defense is down right silly. They run the ball efficiently which I like in this one. In none of their losses have they lost by more than 3 scores.. they are a scrappy bunch and they will give Boise their best game here tonight. Boise might be looking a little ahead to their "big" showdown with Nevada and might give USU a chance to sneak in through the back door here and make it closer than it needs to be. I took the Over because USU's defense is horrid, and Boise might add a cheap one late for the BCS.
Sorry so long winded today guys...BOL tonight
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current Seasons
College Football: 67-33-4 (67%)
College Basketball: 13-16 (45%) CBB Large: 0-1
Professional Basketball: 3-0 (100%) NBA Large: 0-0
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