KSU +3 vs ISU

ISU’s defense is bad.  Prior to the Army game, they were allowing 5.7 yards per play to opponents that average only 4.9 yards per play.  This stat may have improved marginally after the Kent St game last Saturday, though ISU did give up 255 yds in the air @ 8 yards per pass play to a poor Kent St team.  The Cats will be able to run the ball on ISU as did North Dakota St, Iowa, and Army.  This is likely the worst defense KSU has faced yet.

KSU’s rush defense held ULaLa’s rushing game (102 yds and 3.5 ypr) to similar yardage as Nebraska (102 2.8 ypr) and LSU (105 3.6 ypr).  ISU has a good running game, but I think it will be kept under control with KSU’s improving defense.  ISU’s QB Arnaud has shown that he’s capable of tossing picks, giving up 4 to Iowa. KSU DC Vic Koenning should be able to use KSU’s superior secondary to his advantage in this game.  CB Josh Moore is one of the best, and his WR will be shut down.  I’d be more concerned about KSU’s lack of QB pressure (2 sacks on the season), but the secondary has been very good, ranked #2 in the Big 12 in Pass Def Efficiency and #2 in Pass Defense.

KSU ranks #2 behind Texas in kickoff return average as burner Brandon Banks is a threat to go on any given play (39.4 yrd kick return average).  KSU is #4 in the Big 12 in Punt Return avg at 12.5 yds while ISU ranks 11^th at 5.3 yards.  Given the number of punts I expect to see in this game, this could be a factor.

Despite offensive issues, KSU hung in there vs a tough UCLA defense on the road in a game that wasn’t decided until Craft connected late on a 51 yard TD pass.  Second half adjustments by the KSU coaching staff were very effective on both sides of the ball and KSU owned field position…they just couldn’t take advantage, leaving plenty of opportunities on the field.  UCLA’s strong defense was just too much to overcome.  ISU’s poor defense doesn’t pose nearly that kind of threat, and these opportunities can be converted.

Neutral site Arrowhead Stadium has been very good to the Cats, where they’ve defeated a #1 OU team, USC, Iowa, and Cal.  The stadium will be a majority of purple.

Biggest concern in a tight pt spread like this one is 1) the kicking game.  KSU's K Josh Cherry has been absolutely unreliable, missing everything.  And 2) Coffman has thrown 4 picks...ISU has 8 sacks on the season, so they can pressure.  These are about the only things keeping me off the ML, which I may still take.

Big picture, I’ll take the huge coaching edge and an improving KSU team in this game.  The Cats have played better than the results show.  Conference opener for both…I’m sure there will be a strong emphasis from Snyder and staff in the North matchups, taking nothing for granted, starting with this one.